E-Financial
Move Towards Exchange Rate Unification Positive – Report
A report by the FSDH Research has described recent move by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to achieve exchange convergence is positive, saying it would ensure clarity and improve market confidence in the economy.
The report also stated that the move would enable Nigeria to unlock funding from several multilateral organisations such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank and ease the pressure on the exchange rate in the medium term.
It further stated that the central bank’s current move towards unified exchange rate was expected to ensure flexibility and market- determined rate, which it stated to a large extent would, reduce arbitrage, round-tripping and could move the naira towards its fair value.
“The CBN’s move is expected to instill confidence in the market as foreign investors are more likely to participate in a less fragmented market that can be fairly predictable.
“Given this framework, the options available for the CBN include raising the interest rates to incentivise inflow of capital into the economy that may hurt economic recovery in subsequent quarters or relax capital control rules/restrictions and simultaneously increase market interventions to prevent significant depreciation of the naira that may result in external reserves depletion,” the report stated.
It, however urged the CBN to follow up the move to unify the exchange rate with a set of consistent forex policies that would seek to improve market liquidity and prevent every form of foreign exchange arbitrage and unnecessary subsidies.
It also urged the CBN to clear forex backlogs, which the IMF estimated to be $2 billion in February 2021, to further instill confidence in the market.
The report, which was titled: ‘Nigeria’s Foreign Exchange Policy Note- Navigating through the Tides of Uncertainty’.
It added that: “As much as Nigeria needs effective management of foreign exchange and unification of exchange rate to boost confidence, the supply shortage of foreign exchange is still a major problem.
“Increasing foreign exchange supply from non-CBN sources is vital in maintaining exchange rate stability in the I&E window and reducing speculative activities.”
The report predicted that the CBN would be faced with, “policy trilemma” to explain Nigeria’s foreign exchange and monetary choices.
The ‘trilemma’ refers to the trade-offs a government faces when making crucial monetary policy decisions because only two out of the three objectives could be achieved at a time.
It added: “With COVID-19, Nigeria maintained the two objectives of having a fixed/managed official exchange rate and monetary autonomy at the expense of free movement of capital. This was evident in the capital controls and forex backlogs.
“The recent move by the CBN to adopt the I&E market rate as the official rate will enable the CBN to control interest rate while capital controls can be relaxed, but exchange rate will have to be flexible.
“Whether the naira appreciates or depreciates will depend on the level of capital inflows and outflows, CBN’s involvement in the market and the external reserves position.
“This means only way to maintain a stable exchange rate is to attract even more capital into the economy or intervene heavily in the forex market using the external reserves.”
It added that the planned issuance of Eurobond by the government would provide some relief in the market and boost external reserves in the short term.
However, from the fiscal and trade perspective, “Nigeria will need to leverage on the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement to boost non-oil exports and increase foreign exchange inflows.”
The FSDH also recommended that, “providing direct incentives for businesses to produce for exports by implementing port reforms as well as developing a comprehensive industrial and trade strategies would be important steps that the government must take.
“Our 2021 forecasts for key indicators include real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 1.3 per cent, an average exchange rate of N430/$ and an inflation rate of 16.6 per cent.”
International Monetary Fund (IMF), has appointed Tony Elumelu, Nigerian billionaire and group chairman of Heirs Holdings, owners of United Bank of Africa, to its advisory council on entrepreneurship and growth, convened by Kristalina Georgieva, the fund managing director.
The announcement was disclosed in a statement on Friday.
According to the statement, the IMF advisory council comprises global business leaders, policymakers, and academics dedicated to identifying and addressing regulatory barriers to entrepreneurship.
The IMF said Elumelu will be instrumental in ensuring that Africa’s entrepreneurship is central in policy making.
“Elumelu, Africa’s leading advocate of entrepreneurship and whose Foundation has funded, mentored, and trained over 25,000 African entrepreneurs since 2015, champions entrepreneurship as the engine for the economic transformation of Africa,” the statement reads.
“A self-made entrepreneur, Elumelu’s embracing of entrepreneurship is fundamental to his concept of Africapitalism, his belief that Africa’s private sector can and must play a leading role in the continent’s development, making long-term investments that deliver social and economic value.
“Elumelu will be instrumental in ensuring that Africa’s entrepreneurial potential is central to global economic policy making.”
Speaking at the inaugural meeting of the advisory council on March 26, Georgieva said the appointees would share their experiences on how macroeconomic and financial policies “can provide a supportive environment for innovation, entrepreneurship, and productivity — key ingredients for a thriving private sector and strong economic growth”.
Africa’s Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises, fintech industry, scaling remittances, and cross-border payments will be the driving forces behind the continent’s digital ballooning payments system, which is estimated to reach $1.5 trillion by 2030.
This is according to a MasterCard-commissioned study by Genesis Analytics, which states that the digital payments economy is growing faster on the continent.
This comes as the World Bank says Sub-Saharan Africa has shown significant growth in financial inclusion over the past decade, much of it driven by mobile money account adoption.
Dimitrios Dosis, president, Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa at MasterCard, comments: “Africa is filled with immense possibilities, and its people have the potential to shape the global economy in the decades ahead.
“MasterCard remains deeply committed to driving digital transformation across the continent, working closely with entrepreneurs, merchants, banks, start-ups, telcos, and governments. By increasing our investments, expanding innovation, and fostering inclusion, we are helping build a more connected and accessible digital future.”
The payment technology company went on to say as a longstanding technology partner to Africa, its continues to strengthen its commitment to the continent’s digital growth through strategic investments, public-private partnerships, and innovation initiatives that drive financial health and economic growth.
In addition, it says trends in Africa signal a strong shift towards digital transactions, with businesses and consumers increasingly embracing contactless solutions, further accelerating economic participation and financial accessibility across the region.
“For over five decades, MasterCard has worked alongside African governments, businesses, and communities to advance financial inclusion and economic development.
“With Africa projected to host nine of the world’s 20 fastest-growing economies, we are focused on leveraging our expertise and a technology to support the continent’s continued digital transformation.
“Our investments today will help build a more resilient economy for the future,” says Mark Elliott, division president, Africa, MasterCard
By fostering collaboration with key stakeholders, MasterCard says it aims to enhance digital connectivity, expand economic opportunities, and enable millions of people and businesses to thrive in the digital economy.
First Asset Management, one of Nigeria’s investment managers and a subsidiary of First HoldCo Plc. has launched its FBN Blended Dollar Fund to drive up customer earnings through its rich blend of US equity and high-profile investments domiciled in Nigeria.
In its recent webinar, the company discussed the advantages of its newly launched FBN Blended Dollar Fund. First Asset Management is the first company to launch a blended fund in the equity market to maximise customer earnings.
The event was part of the First Asset Management Leading Conversations Webinar Series, which convenes financial industry experts. The session was moderated by the renowned journalist, Omohefe Osemere and featured a distinguished panel including Laura Fisayo- Kolawole, Head of Equities & Alternative Asset Management at First Asset Management; Robert Hageneers, Head of Markets at FirstBank UK; Gbolahan Ologunro, Portfolio Associate at First Asset Management; and Dr. Ayodeji Akamu, Research Associate for Energy & International Economics at First Bank of Nigeria Limited.
The panel discussion revolved around the theme, “Blending Returns in a Dynamic Global Environment: Navigating Trump’s Trade Agreement,” addressing its impact on equity markets in both Nigeria and the United States. The conversation offered insights into global investment strategies amidst ongoing economic volatility.
During the session, First Asset Management introduced the FBN Blended Dollar Fund, explaining its significance and urging investors to seize this opportunity. With a global economic landscape filled with uncertainties, investors are increasingly concentrating on strategies to blend returns across asset classes.
This year, the positive shift in investor sentiment towards Nigeria has been driven by improvement in the monetary policy framework, increased domestic crude oil production, and rising non-oil revenue supported by improved VAT and customs duty collections—factors anticipated to continue bolstering investor confidence.
Laura Fisayo-Kolawole provided insights into U.S. President Donald Trump’s new economic policies, aimed at protecting local industries and stimulating the U.S. economy. She discussed the potential long-term effects of high tariffs designed to discourage imports, noting that while there is optimism stemming from Trump’s first-term policies, the market remains volatile and the full impact of these tariffs, effective from April 2, 2025, is still uncertain.
Ike Onyia, Managing Director at First Asset Management, underscored that the FBN Blended Dollar Fund is a versatile product ideal for investors with a keen interest in growth. It offers competitive returns that can help hedge against inflation and currency risk while providing liquidity.
With a structure that allocates 20% to U.S. equities and 80% to fixed-income instruments, money market instruments, and Euro bonds domiciled in Nigeria, the fund presents diversified exposure to global markets. Onyia expressed enthusiasm about launching a product that offers a unique opportunity for investors to position themselves in an evolving economic landscape.
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