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Naira steady Oil set to post longest winning streak since 2016

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By Lukman Otunuga, FXTM Research Analyst,

Even as WTI futures have fallen below $64/bbl at the time of writing, Oil prices remain on course for their longest run of weekly gains since 2016.

The conflict in Libya and US sanctions on Venezuela and Iran are constraining Oil supplies, even as OPEC+ producers press on with output cuts through June. Rising Oil prices will remain a welcome development for Nigeria, given how a handsome chunk of export revenues are sourced from Oil sales. Appreciating Oil prices are likely to provide foreign exchange stability, ability to implement 2019 budgets and economic growth. However, it still leaves the country vulnerable to external shocks.

With uncertainties revolving around slowing global growth potentially derailing attempts by OPEC+ to rebalance, Nigeria still needs to break away from Oil, and to derive growth from other sustainable sources.

Markets mixed ahead of US earnings

European shares traded flat on Friday as investors evaluated China’s latest trade figures.

Although China’s exports rebounded in March, rising over 14.0% year-on-year, imports disappointed by shrinking 7.6% – marking a fourth consecutive month of decline.

With the trade figures illustrating a mixed picture of the second largest economy in the world, investors are likely to adopt a guarded approach ahead of first quarter earnings releases from two of the biggest banks in the United States. Investors may get a glimpse on how the fading impacts of tax cuts and the Federal Reserve’s cautious shift on interest rates have impacted JP Morgan and Wells Fargo. Should earnings from both banks disappoint, risk sentiment for global equities may take a hit.

Dollar Searches for new catalyst

The Dollar Index has surrendered much of its gains and is now trading below the 97 mark, even as the latest US Producers Price Index exceeded market expectations, while jobless claims surprisingly fell to their lowest levels since 1969.

Coupled with the March US inflation data released earlier this week, the data underscores the central bank’s “patience” on US interest rates, and this may remain unchanged for the rest of 2019.

Markets have now dialled back expectations of a US rate cut by December to just below 50 percent, from above 57 percent earlier this week. With such odds being priced into the Greenback, any data or event that tilts the balance of risks to either side could influence the Dollar’s direction, although which is the way forward remains uncertain for the time being.

Gold steadies after biggest drop in two weeks

Meanwhile, markets are pushing the boundaries on risk sentiment as Gold fell by over 1 percent on Thursday before bouncing off the $1,290 mark. Although the IMF’s cut to its 2019 global growth forecast was a downer, investors are hoping that a not-too-distant US-China trade deal and a stabilizing Chinese economy may weaken headwinds currently felt by the global economy. However, should the outlook take a turn for the worse, that could jolt risk-off sentiment and rally support for the safe haven assets, including Bullion.


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Ministry of Finance Leads FG-Backed Deal to Deliver Quality Homes and Boost Agriculture in Niger State

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Doris Uzoka-Anite, Minister of State for Finance with Mohamed Umar Bago, Governor, Niger State during the signing of M.O.U for the Construction of Mass Housing Estate and Agricultural Settlements in Niger State between the Federal Government and Niger State, on Friday, in Abuja.
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The Federal Ministry of Finance has anchored the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the Niger State Government and the Ministry of Finance Incorporated (MOFI) for the implementation of a Mass Housing and Agricultural Settlement Project in Niger State.

Speaking at the MoU signing ceremony, Dr. Doris Nkiruka Uzoka-Anite, the Honourable Minister of State for Finance, described the agreement as a landmark initiative that underscores the Federal Government’s commitment to cooperative federalism, inclusive economic growth, and strategic alignment in line with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda.

With the Federal Ministry of Finance serving as the anchor institution, the project benefits from strong policy coordination, financial credibility, and institutional oversight. The initiative is designed to integrate housing delivery with agricultural productivity, rural stability, and economic empowerment.

“Housing is a fundamental pillar of development. In Niger State, housing also intersects directly with agriculture, food security, and rural livelihoods. This project is therefore structured not merely as a housing intervention, but as a settlement framework for farmers aimed at strengthening agricultural value chains,” the Minister stated.

Niger State, one of Nigeria’s most agriculturally endowed states, continues to face challenges, including insecure settlements, rural-urban migration, and limited rural infrastructure. The project seeks to address these constraints by providing secure, well-planned housing settlements for farmers, strategically located to support agricultural production, storage, processing, and access to markets.

The Honourable Minister emphasized that anchoring farmers in stable communities with access to basic infrastructure will improve productivity, reduce post-harvest losses, enhance security, and encourage youth participation in agriculture, making farming more efficient, attractive, and profitable.

Sustainability and affordability are core pillars of the initiative, with integrated renewable energy solutions—including solar-powered homes and community facilities, designed to ensure reliable power, reduce energy costs, and support agro-processing and storage activities. The project also prioritises efficient land use, access roads, water infrastructure, and environmentally responsible building practices.

Reacting to the sustainability focus of the project, the Governor of Niger State, His Excellency Mohammed Umaru Bago, expressed strong optimism about its transformative impact on the state.

“When you say sustainability, affordability is very important. When I heard that a mini-grid has been deployed in Jos, it’s because it’s affordable. Diesel is not sustainable because it’s not affordable. For considering the factor of affordability in this project, we’re grateful,” the Governor said.

He further announced the state’s commitment to the project, adding, “So, Honourable Minister, Niger State is bringing forward 100,000 hectares of land for this project. I want to assure you that with this initiative, you have solved 80 percent of our problems.”

Drawing a direct link to the Federal Government’s development agenda, Governor Bago noted, “We’ve gone across the world and seen how people transit from poverty to prosperity. And I think the goal of the President, my father, is for us to transition our people out of poverty in the next four years, by the grace of God.”

The Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of the Ministry of Finance Incorporated (MOFI), Dr. Armstrong Ume Takang (Ph.D.), who attended the ceremony alongside other critical stakeholders, including the building contractor, reaffirmed MOFI’s commitment to quality delivery and agricultural productivity.

Dr. Takang assured the Niger State Government of the contractor’s proven competence and credibility in delivering mass housing projects, stressing that affordability would not come at the expense of quality.

“We want affordable and decent houses. The fact that they are located in rural communities does not mean the quality should be compromised,” he said.

Beyond housing, Dr. Takang highlighted MOFI’s broader role in strengthening the agricultural component of the settlements through strategic partnerships.

“We have partners who will supply affordable fertilisers imported in large quantities. We will also work with other partners to ensure access to key agricultural inputs, not only fertilisers, but also pesticides, high-quality seeds, and elements of mechanisation,” he added.

The project adopts an innovative financing model that blends public assets with private investment, ensuring sustainability, transparency, and shared risk. Through this approach, the government focuses on policy direction and oversight while leveraging private sector efficiency and capital.

Beyond improving food security, the Mass Housing and Agricultural Settlement Project will stimulate broad-based economic activity and generate employment across construction, agriculture, Agro-processing, renewable energy, logistics, and community services. The initiative will support local industries such as cement, steel, transportation, and agro-allied enterprises, while strengthening rural economies and increasing Niger State’s internally generated revenue.

Affordability and inclusiveness remain central to the project’s design. The settlements are tailored to the income realities of farmers and low- to middle-income earners, supported by transparent allocation mechanisms and strong governance structures to ensure benefits reach the intended beneficiaries.

The MoU sends a clear signal to the investment community that Niger State, working in alignment with the Federal Ministry of Finance and MOFI, is open to credible, well-structured, and impact-driven investment. Developers, financial institutions, pension funds, real estate investors, and agribusiness operators are invited to view the project as a scalable and replicable model.

Reaffirming the Federal Ministry of Finance’s commitment, the Honourable Minister assured stakeholders of continued coordination, fiscal discipline, and policy support to ensure the project moves swiftly from signing to execution and delivery.

Commending the leadership of MOFI and the Executive Governor of Niger State, the Minister concluded that the initiative reflects a shared vision for integrated development.

“Through this partnership, we are not just building houses; we are creating stable farming communities, strengthening food security, and laying the foundation for sustained prosperity in Niger State,” she said.


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CBN Projects Petrol to Hover around N905/Litre this Year

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has projected that the pump price of petrol would hover around N950 per litre in the year 2026.

CBN Projects Petrol to Hover around N905/Litre this Year

The CBN stated this in its 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook for Nigeria.

In its outlook for the domestic economy, the bank made what it called baseline projections predicated on assumptions like crude oil price at an average of $60 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025 and $55 per barrel in 2026 and the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market exchange rate at an average of N1,451.63/$ in Q4 2025 and N1,400/$ in 2026 (supported by a more efficient foreign exchange market, higher capital inflows, a current account surplus, and a broad-based improvement in economic activity).

The CBN stated that domestic crude oil production is assumed to be at about 1.5 million barrels per day throughout the forecast period, as premium motor spirit is expected to sell around N950, an amount higher than the current pump prices.

“The baseline projections are predicated on the following assumptions: crude oil price at an average of $60/barrel in Q4 2025 and $55/barrel in 2026 (consistent with the US EIA’s outlook that rising global crude oil inventories and supply glut would moderate prices); NFEM exchange rate at an average of N1,451.63/$ in Q4 2025 and N1,400/$ in 2026 (supported by a more efficient FX market, higher capital inflows, a current account surplus, and a broad-based improvement in economic activity).

“Furthermore, domestic crude oil production is assumed at about 1.5 mbpd (excluding condensates) throughout the forecast period. PMS price is expected to hover around N950 per litre in 2026. Government expenditure is projected to follow the 2025-2027 MTEF/FSP path, reflecting an expansionary fiscal stance aimed at supporting the $1tn economy initiative. MPR and CRR are assumed at 27.00 and 45.00 per cent, respectively. The baseline projections were generally supported by the assumption of continued improvement in business optimism and stronger investor sentiment,” the CBN said.

 


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FG to Empower Artisans for Global Value

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The Federal Government has reaffirmed its commitment to grassroots artisans to upgrade local skills to meet both national and international benchmarks and compete in the global markets.

Speaking recently during the Skill-Up Artisans (SUPA) zonal rally, Dr Afiz Ogun, director-general of the Industrial Training Fund (ITF), stated that the initiative is designed to professionalise the sector.

The rally was designed to raise awareness of the programme throughout the North-West region.

The rally saw a diverse turnout of professionals, including those in construction and engineering such as welders, fabricators, plumbers, and carpenters.

Those in the technical service comprised of electrical installers and automobile mechanics, while those in the creative and digital space were fashion designers and ICT technicians.

Represented by Muhammad Aminu, the former zonal director of the ITF, Ogun explained that the SUPA scheme seeks to convert traditional craftsmanship into sustainable livelihoods.

He emphasised that the goal is to transform artisans from job seekers into employers of labour.

“We are calling on artisans across the North-West to embrace the SUPA programme,” Ogun remarked. “This is an opportunity to enhance productivity, increase earnings, and ensure our workforce can compete on a global stage”.

According to the DG, the initiative aligns with President Bola Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda, focusing on restoring dignity to manual and technical work.

He noted that a competent artisan class forms the essential foundation of a productive economy.

He further called upon traditional rulers, community leaders, and trade associations to assist the ITF in disseminating information about the programme to ensure high participation rates.

“We are here to engage the technicians, the tradespeople, and the young talents who serve as the backbone of our economy,” he added.

Nancy Ekong, director of the Technical Vocational Skills Training Department, highlighted the programme’s recent successes. She revealed that over 30,000 artisans were trained and upgraded during the initial SUPA cycle in 2025.

The ITF remains optimistic that the continued expansion of SUPA will bridge the existing skills gap in Nigeria’s industrial sector.

 


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