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Nigeria and Oil: Looking Beyond Price Collapse Towards Post Recovery Savings (Part 1)

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Austin Okere
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By Austin Okere

“Oil prices hit three-year high as gas crunch starts to affect crude market” was the screaming headline in the Financial Times of September 27, 2021, with a rider ‘Goldman Sachs lifts year-end Brent forecast to $90 a barrel on widening ‘supply-demand deficit’.

The surge in crude oil prices, surpassing $82 a barrel on October 11, 2021, presents Nigeria with another golden opportunity that should not be floundered. I wrote this article on April 20, 2016, after the colossal collapse in Oil prices below $37 a barrel – It is as relevant now as it was then – probably more crucial now given our dire circumstances.

The article is in two parts hereunder:

The recurrent mistake we keep making as a Nation is failing to anticipate and plan for our oil windfalls. There have been many boom opportunities since Nigeria joined the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in 1971; Oil prices increased by 400% in six short months after the Yom Kippur War following the Arab Oil Embargo. Crude prices doubled from $14 in 1978 to $35 per barrel in 1981 following the Iran/Iraq war.

The price of crude oil spiked in 1990 with the uncertainties associated the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and the ensuring Gulf War – the so called ‘Gulf War windfall’ under then Head of State Ibrahim Babangida. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration shows that the latest windfall happened between February 2011 and August 2014, under the Goodluck Jonathan presidency, when oil prices were much in excess of $100 per barrel. Another golden opportunity was squandered, characterised by organised kleptocracy of epic proportions as has now come to light.

During this same period Saudi Arabia has amassed a whopping $593b in foreign exchange reserves and has recently announced that it is creating a $2 trillion mega-sovereign wealth fund, funded by sales of current petroleum industry assets, to prepare itself for an age when oil no longer dominates the global economy. Coming closer home, Algeria, the second biggest African oil producer, with 1.9mbpd has accumulated foreign reserves of $156b and a sovereign wealth fund of $50b.

Nigeria, by far the biggest producer in Africa with 2.5mbpd has only managed foreign reserves of $28b and a sovereign wealth fund of a paltry $2.9b – about 5% that of Algeria.

The major difference being that while the Algerians saved for a rainy day during the boom years, Nigeria was busy squandering her wealth, with nothing to show by way of infrastructure or any solid investments.

Yet Nigeria was able to balance her budget, pay off her debts and save over $62b in foreign reserves during the Obasanjo presidency from 1999 to 2007, even though the price of crude was mostly under $40 per barrel, except for the two years between 2005 and 2007 when it hovered between $50 and $75 dollars per barrel.

It is bothersome that with the same level of oil price, Nigeria today is struggling to balance her budget and has resorted to aggressive borrowing to finance the deficit, inadvertently driving us back to where we were before escaping from the huge burden of sovereign debt and the attendant debilitating impact of debt servicing.

I believe that Nigeria can save as much as $36.5b in the coming year if oil prices recover towards the end of 2016 and through 2017 to the projected $80 per barrel. This assumes we have all agreed that the current crises is much too painful and too precious to waste.

It can actually be a blessing in disguise, affording us the much needed leverage to deliberately diversify our economy away from the over dependence on oil, and attempt to become self-sufficient in every low hanging opportunity such as feeding ourselves. There is a reason why the Chinese use the same word for challenge and opportunity; behind every challenge is an opportunity.

We must seize this golden opportunity with both hands and make the structural changes that will lead us to true prosperity as a nation. Almost every third Nigerian businessman you come across claims to be into Oil and Gas; usually, briefcase contractors who manage to have their ‘papers’ stamped, and proceed to collect money from the treasury of our commonwealth. Yet oil contributed only 6.4% to GDP growth in 2015.

An often overlooked area for rapid economic growth is telecoms, entertainment and media. At a recent event in Lagos, Dr. Doyin Salami, lecturer at Lagos Business School, remarked that ‘The telecommunication sector grew Nigeria’s GDP by 8.7% in 2015, generating spill overs, with uptakes in financial transactions technology and payment systems, e-commerce facilitation and proliferation of transport services, while making the offering of the burgeoning entertainment industry ubiquitous’.

Quite simply, if each of the 34 million MSME’s in Nigeria could be supported with technology to improve their businesses through online presence and seamless bookkeeping to the point of employing one more staff, they would create an additional 34 million jobs, much more than the government can ever provide. I totally agree with Dr. Salami that Nigeria’s economy has systematically and strategically diversified along the lines of technology and other services sector without Nigerians noticing.  The services sector today contributes as much as 52% of Nigeria’s GDP.

Agriculture is also another sector that could do with special attention. If we strive to produce what we eat, we will not only be saving a whopping $6b from our import bill, but also provide the opportunity for inclusive growth, with the spill over effects down the value chain, from logistics and transportation to light manufacturing. But we need to make the right investments in infrastructure such as roads and rail transport linking farms with their food processors and markets.

The change that will make all this happen is not the ‘outsourced variety’ where we believe that we can carry on with business as usual, or sit back and fold our arms while only the President delivers the promised change. All hands must be on deck, and we each have to be the change we desire.

The elephant in the room question is; who says oil prices will reach $80 per barrel?

Austin Okere is the Founder of CWG Plc, the largest ICT Company on the Nigerian Stock Exchange & Entrepreneur in Residence at CBS, New York. Austin also serves on the Advisory Board of the Global Business School Network, and on the World Economic Forum Global Agenda Council on Innovation and Intrapreneurship. Austin now runs the Ausso Leadership Academy focused on Business and Entrepreneurial Mentorship


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General News

TD Africa Unveils Super App Version 2, Transforms Technology Access Across Africa

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Omowumi Oladele, Project Manager, TD Africa
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TD Africa, a leading technology distributor in Africa, has launched TD Super App Version 2, an upgraded, feature-rich platform designed to revolutionize technology procurement for individuals and businesses.

Omowumi Oladele, Project Manager, TD Africa

The enhanced App offers seamless access to a wide range of cutting-edge tech products at unbeatable prices, with faster delivery options to improve efficiency and convenience.

Available on both web and mobile, the revamped TD Super App boasts an intuitive, user-friendly interface, making it easier than ever for users to discover and purchase technology products.

This latest upgrade reaffirms TD Africa’s commitment to affordability, efficiency, and convenience, ensuring that businesses and individuals can access the tools they need to succeed.

With exclusive deals and discounts, registered users can enjoy significant savings on a vast selection of technology products, including computing devices, smartphones, consumer electronics, and power solutions. Optimized logistics and accelerated delivery times further enhance the shopping experience, ensuring that customers receive their technology essentials quickly and reliably.

“At TD Africa, we are dedicated to delivering value, efficiency, and cutting-edge technology solutions that drive business growth and streamline operations,” said Omowumi Oladele, Product Manager, TD Africa.

“The upgraded TD Super App Version 2 is designed to simplify procurement, enhance productivity, and maximize savings—empowering businesses and individuals across Africa.”

The App is now available for download on the App Store (iOS) and Google Play Store (Android). Users can also access the platform via web browsers at superapp.tdafrica.com


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FG Drops Merger of NCAA, NAMA

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The Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Festus Keyamo has disclosed that President Bola Tinubu has stepped down the merger of the Nigeria Civil Aviation Authority (NCAA) and the Nigerian Airspace Management Agency (NAMA) as recommended by the Steve Oronsaye report.

He also revealed that the aviation industry was exempted from the foreign travel ban placed on federal government officials last year. The President announced the ban which took effect from April last year.

Keyamo disclosed that the aviation sector was exempted from the ban because President Tinubu is desirous of change and growth in the sector.

The ban was placed following the rising cost of travel expenses by Ministries, Department and Agencies of Government.

The memo released last year stated: “Considering the current economic challenges and the need for responsible fiscal management, I am writing to communicate Mr Presideni’s directive to place a temporary ban on all publicly funded international trips for all federal government officials at all levels, for an initial period of three months from 1st April 2024.

“All government officials who intend to go on any publicly funded international trips must seek and obtain Presidential approval at least two weeks before embarking on any such trip, which must be deemed necessary”.

The Minister disclosed the reasons for the exemption in Abuja at the 25th anniversary celebration of the Nigeria Civil Aviation Authority (NCAA).

On the merger of NCAA and NAMA, he said: “From modest beginnings, we have witnessed remarkable transformations in our sector, ranging from enhanced supervisory measures and policies formulation, safety and security oversight, robust legislative and regulatory frameworks, advancements in air traffic management, development, expansion and certification of airports, accurate meteorological services, timely accident investigations, manpower development, and indeed, the growth of indigenous airlines.

“These achievements have not come without challenges. However, with the efforts of past administrations and the total support of the present administration under the dynamic leadership of His Excellency President Bola Tinubu through the Renewed Hope Agenda and the five focus areas of the ministry, we have overcome challenges and reached new heights.

“NCAA is a child of God, and despite turbulent waters and attempts sometimes to kill the NCAA, the NCA has survived 25 years. And I’m sure you know that any child that is born at the age of 25, of course, is undoubtedly an age of maturity.

“The Oronsanye reports also recommended the merger of NCAA and NAMA. And so that was also another attempt to kill the NCAA. That report was passed from Jonathan’s government to Buhari’s government, and then to the present government.

“It was one of the first items we considered in this government. So the Oronsanye reports came up that day, and the president went on and on, considered every item in the Oronsanye report, and asked the council to vote. And for each item, they would listen to the ministers and so the president came to the merger of NCAA and NAMA as one body.

“I raised my hand, I spoke for about five minutes and because we have a wonderful president who listens to good counsel and good arguments, after I finished speaking, he said, an item dropped, the merger of NCAA and NAMA would not remain”.

On the reasons for the exemption, he said: “It is a fact that the aviation sector remains a pillar of national development, facilitating trade, tourism, investment, and cultural exchange. Whilst it is yet to realize its true potential in terms of contribution to our nation’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), we must renew our commitment to ensuring a more progressive, sustainable, inclusive, innovative, and prosperous aviation industry.

“This necessitates the continuous adoption and integration of emerging technologies, enhancing infrastructure, and investing in human capital development to keep our skies safer and secure and attain cohesive and efficient air transportation services.

“The President directed that foreign travels should stop, except in exceptional circumstances. Last year, there was a memo around March that said it was for three months, and the President, because of his desire to ensure that we are frugal in our spending; there was another memo again in December reiterating that memo last year we should cut down on foreign travels, except by direct presidential approval.

“But let us also give particular thanks to Mr. President, because despite that memo, since last year, he has made an exception for the aviation industry. I wrote a memo to him after that directive on behalf of the entire agency that says; Sir, we respect your directive; yes, we need to be frugal because the Nigerian people have also tightened their belts in the face of the economic reforms that are taking place.

“However, because of the safety of this sector, Sir, we need to make some exceptions for this sector. And the President graciously granted this for the aviation sector”.


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Researchers Develop Innovative Treatment for Malaria

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An international team of researchers have introduced a groundbreaking drug, known as the covalent kinase inhibitor, which shows promise in combating treatment-resistant malaria.

Researchers Develop Innovative Treatment for Malaria

Developed by chemists and bioscientists from the University of Glasgow, this innovative drug could surpass current medications by effectively targeting and disabling the proteins used by the Plasmodium falciparum parasite to replicate within the human body.

This is according to a report titled “Targeting Pf CLK3 with Covalent Inhibitors: A Novel Strategy for Malaria Treatment.”

The development, led by chemists and bioscientists from the University of Glasgow, was outlined in a November publication in the “Journal of Medicinal Chemistry.”

According to the researchers, covalent inhibitors form bonds with proteins, usually irreversibly modifying them, and this new drug could be more effective than current medications at all stages of malaria infection.

The new drug works by permanently disabling a protein that Plasmodium falciparum, one of the mosquito-borne parasites that spread malaria, uses to replicate itself inside the human body.

The drug also has the potential to work as a single-dose treatment, a significant improvement over existing therapies.

This breakthrough marks the first adaptation of an approach from cancer treatments to tackle malaria.

The team expressed optimism that the parasite is unlikely to develop resistance to the new drug, which targets the protein Pf CLK3 and disrupts the parasite’s ability to splice RNA.

The researchers, including Prof. Martins Emeje from the Nigerian Natural Medicines Development Agency and Prof. Oyewale Tomori from the West African Academy of Sciences, emphasise the importance of regular calibration and accreditation for medical laboratories to ensure accurate results and reliable treatment.

 

 


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