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Nigeria CPI, USD and Oil in focus

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By Lukman Otunuga, Senior Market Analyst at FXTM

With the US election done and dusted, the focus shifts back to key data from across the globe.

It will be a week packed with inflation figures from major economies, including the United States, China and Germany among many others.

But the spotlight shines on Africas 4th largest economy – Nigeria.

Inflationary pressures have been cooling in recent months but the latest figure for October is expected to have jumped 33.4%, from 32.7% in September. This may be the result of fuel hikes and floods in the northern part of the country affecting the harvest season.

The CBN has been on a mission to support the Naira and attract investments using aggressive monetary policy. Interest rates were raised by 50 basis points to 27.25% in September – marking its fifth consecutive hike in 2024. Should the Naira show signs of stabilizing, annual inflation could peak in the final quarter of this year.

Dollar set for volatile week?

Outside of Nigeria, our attention falls on the US Dollar Index (DXY) which could be rattled by key US data and Fed speeches including Jerome Powell.

Besides, it would be a crime to overlook the index after its aggressively bullish reaction to Trump’s US election win. Prices jumped almost 2% last week Wednesday on the “Trump trade” before giving back post-election gains as the Pound and Yen gained.

Note: The DXY tracks the dollars performance against a basket of six different G10 currencies, including the Euro, British Pound, Japanese Yen, and Canadian dollar.

With all the above said, the DXY could see more price swings.

* US October CPI report

The October US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report to be published on Wednesday 13th November could impact Fed cut expectations around lower US interest rates in December and beyond.

Markets are forecasting: 

  • CPI year-on-year (October 2024 vs. October 2023) to rise 6% from 2.4%in the prior month
  • Core CPI year-on-year to remain unchanged at 3%
  • CPI month-on-month (October 2024 vs September 2024) to remain unchanged at 2%
  • Core CPI month-on-month to remain unchanged at 3%.

Headline and core CPI inflation is expected to remain unchanged at 0.2% and 0.3% MoM in October, but the year-over-year headline number is expected to rise 2.6% from 2.4%.

Further evidence of cooling price pressures may support the case for another rate cut in December.

Traders are currently pricing in a 65% probability of another 25-basis point rate cut by the end of 2024.

A softer-than-expected US CPI report has the potential to drag the DXY lower. Should the CPI report beat market forecasts, the DXY could push higher.

Oil hit by China demand woes

Oil tumbled last Friday after Chinese stimulus measures disappointed investor expectations.

Brent shed roughly 1.6% last week as renewed concerns about demand in China and uncertainty over the impacts of Trump’s presidency weighed on the global commodity.

Last week, we discussed how Trump’s victory may pressure oil – possibly hitting oil producing nations like Nigeria. His return to the White House could result in higher domestic oil production while potential tariffs on China may impact global demand. This combination of rising supply and falling demand could enforce fresh pressures on oil which is down 4% since the start of 2024. Should oil prices continue to weaken, this could be a threat to countries who acquire a chunk of their revenues from oil sales.

 


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E-Financial

CBN Issues Scam Alert, Warns of Fake SWIFT Messages Linked to Transfer Claim

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has advised bank customers to be cautious about the use of fake SWIFT messages during foreign exchange (FX) remittances.

CBN Issues Scam Alert, Warns of Fake SWIFT Messages Linked to Transfer Claim

 

SWIFT messages are sent through the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication network to facilitate financial transactions between banks and financial institutions.

The CBN gave the warning in a statement signed by Hakama Sidi-Ali, acting director of corporate communications department, on Tuesday in Abuja.

The apex bank said it had been inundated with claims by some stakeholders about the conclusion of foreign currency transfer to their Nigeria bank accounts.

According to Sidi Ali, stakeholders like private entities, individuals, law firms, and government agencies complained that foreign currency funds allegedly transferred to them by foreign entities have yet to be credited to their accounts with Nigerian banks.

“In some instances, the claimants alleged that the funds were withheld by either the beneficiary bank in Nigeria or the CBN and requested assistance towards releasing the funds to them,” She said.

“The requests are usually supported with fake documents such as SWIFT MT103, SWIFT Ack copy, etc.

“It has become imperative to state that the SWIFT ack copy and SWIFT MT103 that these claimants usually attach as evidence of remittance to beneficiary banks in Nigeria are not reliable.”

Sidi Ali added that the SWIFT messages are always not traceable on the SWIFT platform and the funds are not received to enable their application to the beneficiary’s account.

“In a situation where a fund transfer beneficiary receiving bank claims non-receipt of funds remitted by the foreign entity, the standard practice is for the sending customer to contact the sending bank.

“The purpose for the sending bank to send a tracer to trace where the fund is hanging and recall it.

“For the avoidance of doubt, we wish to state emphatically that the CBN neither provides correspondent banking services for Nigerian banks in foreign payments nor maintains accounts for private business entities.

“Consequently, petitioners’ claim that the alleged expected inflows for onward credit into the accounts of private business entities are trapped in the CBN is not only spurious but deceitful.”

The CBN spokesperson urged the general public to be careful with such unauthentic SWIFT messages and documents containing spurious claims of non-application of substantial foreign currency funds allegedly transferred into the beneficiary’s account.

She also warned that the CBN would not hesitate to report any bank customer making unsubstantiated and illegitimate claims to law enforcement agencies for investigation and prosecution.

 

 

 

 


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FG to Establish National Youth Development Bank to Support Young Nigerians

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Federal Government is to establish a National Youth Development Bank and a Youth Data Bank, according to President Bola Tinubu.

FG to Establish National Youth Development Bank to Support Young Nigerians

President Bola Tinubu, represented by Kashim Shettima, his vice, , disclosed this at a Stakeholders Roundtable on Northern Youth Development organised by the Sir Ahmadu Bello Memorial Foundation, in Abuja.

The President described the banks as crucial tools for “providing financial and informational support to young Nigerians.”

He said since assumption of office, his administration unveiled a comprehensive youth development strategy spanning multiple key sectors to drive Nigeria’s economic transformation.

Tinubu extolled the legacy of the late Sardauna of Sokoto and former Premier of Northern Nigeria, Ahmadu Bello

” The late Sir Ahmadu Bello, the Sardauna of Sokoto, was one of the towering giants on whose shoulders we have ascended as a nation.

” His vision was clear: the North cannot progress in isolation, and Nigeria cannot prosper unless every part of this nation thrives,” he said.

Tinubu declared that the development of Northern Nigeria remains fundamental to the nation’s prosperity.

According to him, “whatever disrupts the growth of one region sets back the entire nation.

“For far too long, we have been taunted as a nation with the most children out of school—a reality that should not elicit pride but provoke urgent action.

“This alarming statistic has turned the promise of our population into a challenge rather than the dividend it ought to be,” he added.

 

 

 


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Moniepoint Crowned Financial Inclusion Champion by CBN

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In a move that signposts its market leadership, Africa’s fastest-growing financial institution, Moniepoint has been recognized as the Financially Inclusive Fintech of the Year at the 2nd International Financial Inclusion Conference (IFIC).

This prestigious event which was hosted by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) had in attendance, several key stakeholders in the financial services industry that include Deputy Governor, Financial System Stability, Central Bank of Nigeria, Philip Ikeazor, Director-General, National Pension Commission (PenCom), Omolola Oloworaran, Country Manager and Area Business Head for West Africa, Mastercard, Folasade Femi-Lawal, and Chairman of Committee of e-Business Industry Heads (CeBIH), Ajibade Laolu-Adewale among others.

Themed “Inclusive Growth: Harnessing Inclusion for Economic Development,” this year’s conference brought together global experts, policymakers, and industry leaders to explore strategies for advancing financial access and fostering economic development.

Moniepoint’s stellar contributions and nationwide impact in promoting financial inclusion across underserved communities were celebrated alongside its innovative products and solutions that bridge gaps and provide a secure, fast and transparent way to access digital financial services .

In addition to this accolade, in recent weeks Moniepoint has received several other industry awards, further cementing its position as a leader in driving financial inclusion and economic empowerment across Nigeria.

Commenting on the awards and wins, CEO Moniepoint Inc, Tosin Eniolorunda said “these recognitions underscore our commitment to engineering financial happiness via solutions that empower individuals, small businesses and communities at large. At Moniepoint, we believe that financial inclusion is not just a goal but a necessary foundation for sustainable economic growth and development. We are honored to contribute and support the Federal Government’s aspirations and agenda to become a trillion dollar economy by 2030 and we remain dedicated to making a meaningful impact.”

He continued, “the laurels and accolades are a strong validation of the hard work and dedication that our DreamMakers put into powering the dreams of millions of Nigerians, and it will continue to fuel our passion for driving excellence in Nigeria’s financial services sector. It’s just Day One for us and we will continue to develop solutions that make financial services more accessible to all.”

Scoring an uncommon hattrick, Moniepoint Inc was listed for the third year in a row in the seventh edition of CB Insights annual Fintech 100, a list of the 100 most promising private fintech companies in the world and described as high-momentum companies shaping the future of financial services.

At the prestigious BusinessDay Banks & Other Financial Institutions BAFI Awards 2024, now in its 12th year, which highlights excellence and innovation within the financial services sector and celebrates the institutions that have set new standards in performance, customer service, and leadership, Moniepoint Microfinance Bank won the award for “SME Microfinance Bank of the Year” and Tosin Eniolorunda emerged as the Fintech CEO of the Year.

At the Phillips Consulting (pcl.) Digital Jurist Awards 2024, which celebrates the remarkable achievements of organizations that have exemplified innovation and excellence in leading digital transformation across various sectors in Nigeria, Moniepoint was recognised for Best Digital and Best Website in the Microfinance Bank sector, while winning the award for the Overall Best OFI in Digital Banking Solution Delivery (Vision Category) at the NEXUS 2024 Gala and Awards Night organized by Qore, a leading fintech infrastructure and Banking-as-a-Service platform provider.

Moniepoint Inc. is Africa’s all-in-one financial ecosystem, helping 10 million businesses and individuals access seamless payments, banking, credit, and business management tools since 2019. As Nigeria’s largest merchant acquirer, it powers most of the country’s Point of Sale (POS) transactions. Through its subsidiaries, Moniepoint Inc. processes $17 billion monthly for its customers while operating profitably.


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