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Nigeria Foreign Reserves Rise in May; Gold Shines

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By Lukman Otunuga, FXTM Research Analyst,

The Naira is set to witness further stability against the Dollar after Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves increased by $295.12m to $45.087bn in May.

Rising foreign reserves should provide the extra ammunition needed for the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to defend the Naira against a tornado of domestic and external headwinds. Nevertheless, the nation still remains exposed to oil price volatility. It is widely known that Nigeria relies heavily on crude exports which account for over 90% of exports earnings and over 70% of government revenues. The fact that oil prices are sinking towards $55 today may lead to a fall in reserves in the coming months which has the potential to impact exchange rate stability, inflation and economic growth.

Dollar blinks and loses hold on throne

Dollar bulls were nowhere to be found today despite risk aversion accelerating the flight to safety. Market fears over Trump’s trade disputes with Mexico and China negatively impacting the US economy are weighing on the US Dollar.  While the Greenback still remains a prime destination of safety in times of uncertainty, the question is for how long? When keeping in mind how the Fed funds futures are currently pointing to a near 70% chance of a rate cut by September, the Dollar’s upside may be limited. In regards to the technical picture, the Dollar Index has the potential to sink back towards 97.50 if a weekly close below 98.00 is achieved.

Commodity spotlight – Gold

Gold is extended gains on Friday amid news of unexpected tariffs on Mexican goods, while ongoing US-China trade tensions continued to support safe-haven demand.

A depreciating Dollar is supporting the upside with prices trading marginally below $1300 as of writing. Market expectations over the Fed cutting interest rates in 2019 coupled with concerns over slowing global growth are likely to ensure Gold remains buoyed moving forward. Technical traders will continue to closely observe how Gold behaves below the $1300. A solid breakout above this point should signal a move higher towards $1324.

Oil set to register first monthly loss of 2019

Oil is on track to register its first monthly loss of 2019 with WTI Crude sinking towards $55 thanks to Trump’s newly announced tariffs on Mexico and concerns over rising US gasoline stockpiles.

It is becoming increasingly clear that oil markets remain highly reactive to news around supply and demand factors. Such market dynamics will frame the upcoming OPEC meeting in June as a pivotal event that will shape Oil’s outlook for the rest of the year. Even if OPEC+ decide to extend their supply cuts into the second half of the year, this may be overshadowed by concerns over US-China trade tensions impacting the demand for oil as global growth slows.


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E-Financial

NGX Warns Public of Fraudulent Impersonation by ‘Value Gain’

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Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX) has issued a stern warning against fraudulent activities, following reports of an individual and entity masquerading as affiliates of the Exchange.

NGX Warns Public of Fraudulent Impersonation by ‘Value Gain’

In a strongly worded statement posted via its verified official X handle on Monday, the Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX) cautioned the public about the actions of an alleged impersonator, ‘Professor Adebayo Oluwatokun,’ and a purported organization, ‘Value Gain,’ who are reportedly exploiting the trust of investors by falsely claiming affiliation with the NGX.

The pair are said to be operating a deceptive WhatsApp group, “NGX GroupA7,” designed to mislead and manipulate unsuspecting individuals.

NGX unequivocally clarified that neither ‘Professor Adebayo Oluwatokun’ nor ‘Value Gain’ has any association with the Exchange or its subsidiaries, nor are they registered Trading License Holders.

In a statement, NGX emphasized that all claims or communications originating from these individuals or entities are fraudulent, and the public is strongly urged to refrain from engaging with them.

The Exchange reaffirmed its dedication to safeguarding the interests of investors and maintaining the integrity of the Nigerian capital market. NGX encouraged individuals to promptly report any suspicious activities in order to prevent further exploitation.

This advisory comes in the wake of growing concerns over the rising incidence of fraudulent activities within the Nigerian capital market, particularly those linked to stockbrokers and dealing member firms.

There has been increasing scrutiny over the lax enforcement of Know Your Client (KYC) protocols, which some believe has facilitated these infractions.

 


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GAIM 6: Fidelity Bank Rewards 10 Customers with N10m

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Dr. Nneka Onyeali-Ikpe, GMD/CEO, Fidelity Bank Plc.
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Fidelity Bank Plc has announced the first set of millionaires in its Get Alert in Millions Season Six (GAIM 6) promo.

GAIM 6: Fidelity Bank Rewards 10 Customers with N10m

In an event held at the bank’s corporate office in Lagos and observed online, the bank revealed ten customers each won cash prizes of N1 million in an electronic draw supervised by regulatory agencies and members of the media.

Fidelity Bank initiated the GAIM 6 promotion on November 20, 2024, with the aim of encouraging a healthy savings culture.

Through this promotion, the bank will distribute a total of N159 million in cash prizes to reward its loyal customers.

Speaking at the first monthly draw of the promo in Lagos, Dr Ken Opara, promo chairperson and executive director, Lagos and South-West, Fidelity Bank Plc, represented by Mr. Jude Monye, regional bank head, Ikeja and directorate head, North Business of Fidelity Bank, noted that “GAIM promo emphasises the importance of maintaining a healthy savings habit among the bank’s customers.

The said this habit insulates them from economic shocks, enables individuals and families to navigate emergencies, and allows them to invest in their future.

According to Dr. Opara, “10 lucky winners were chosen via an electronic draw monitored by lottery regulators and each will receive the sum of one million each.

“The bank would disburse N159 million to its lucky customers between November 2024 and August 2025 when the grand finale of the promo would hold.

“Today, we have witnessed the first promo monthly draw and 10 winners have emerged from the six geo-political zones of the country. One winner emerged from the South West; two from Abuja; two from the South-South; South-East produced two winners; Lagos got two winners; and North Central had one winner,” he said.

Shedding light on how people can qualify for the draw, Dr. Opara explained that, “Both existing and new customers can win by simply topping their account with a minimum of N5,000 as every N5,000 saved guarantees a ticket in the draws and there is no limit to the number of tickets a customer can have).

Highlighting the benefits of driving saving culture through the Fidelity Bank GAIM 6 Promo, Dr Opara noted that, “The benefits of fostering a culture of savings extend beyond individual households.

“Through our GAIM promo, customers will enjoy free financial advisory services from the bank to help sustain their financial well-being.

“In the previous editions of the GAIM promo, we have successfully onboarded many new-to-bank customers while encouraging current customers to increase their savings.

“An increased savings leads to more substantial investments in education, healthcare, and infrastructure, driving economic growth. Fidelity Bank is renowned across Nigeria for helping individuals grow, businesses thrive, and economies prosper by prioritizing our customers’ financial well-being.

“This initiative has significantly contributed to the government’s National Financial Inclusion Strategy, which aims to increase the percentage of adults with savings accounts from 39 to 70 per cent by 2025.

“I encouraged those who have not yet opened a Fidelity Bank savings account to do so, via any of the bank’s channels, as the promo is opened to both new and existing customers,” he added.

On his part, Mr. Osita Ede, divisional head, Product Development, Fidelity Bank, noted that, “The bank planned to reward the customers before the Christmas celebration to support them in meeting their expenses but the draw is open to customers who have Fidelity Bank savings accounts and have grown their savings to N10,000 and above from the promo launch date of November 20, 2024.

Mr Tanko Olaseni, head, Monitoring Inspection and Enforcement, Lagos State Lotteries and Gaming Authority, commended Fidelity Bank for being transparent with the draw while noting that, the promo initiative would further boost the image of the bank and its profitability as savings culture is promoted among its customers.


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BudgIT Queries Irregularities in FG’s Proposed 2025 Budget

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BudgIT, a civic-tech organisation promoting transparency, accountability, and effective service delivery in Nigeria, has said that it has observed certain legacy issues with the  federal government proposed 2025 budget.

BudgIT Queries Irregularities in FG’s Proposed 2025 Budget

BudgIT has therefore has called on the National Assembly to proactively address the irregularities, exercise its “Powers of the Purse” responsibly, allow robust public participation in the budget review process, and ensure that the approved budget reflects the needs and preferences of Nigerians through job creation, poverty reduction, and inclusive broad-based economic growth.

The organisation in a statement by Nancy Odimegwu, its communications associate, noted that a review of the performance of the Federal Government budget over recent years has revealed that the Federal Government often falls way off the mark in its macroeconomic assumptions, which pose serious fiscal risks leading to severe budget financing challenges, additional unforeseen government obligations, and a significant increase in public debt.

The government’s inflation projection of 15% in the 2025 fiscal year appears grossly unrealistic, it said, considering that inflation, which stood at 34.6% as of November 2024, has been driven not only by monetary factors such as exchange rate and money supply but also by the constant increase in food and energy prices—both of which the government has not created a clear roadmap to resolving in the short term.

While the oil price projection of $75 per barrel appears feasible given the global outlook of $70 to $73 per barrel, we strongly advise the National Assembly to resist the urge to increase the oil price benchmark to create fiscal space for their budgetary insertions, a practice observed in previous years.

“Recall that in previous years, BudgIT has identified several budgetary insertions made by the National Assembly that deviate from the federal government’s constitutional mandate and priorities and are assigned to MDAs that have neither the capacity nor the mandate to implement the inserted projects. In 2021, BudgIT observed that 5,601 capital projects were added to the Appropriation Bill during the review process by the National Assembly,” it said .

“In 2022, it increased to 6,462 projects across 37 Mother Ministries and 340 MDAs, while in 2024, 7,447 insertions amounting to a staggering N2.24 trillion were found in the budget. While the Constitution grants the National Assembly the authority to appropriate funds, it often modifies the Executive’s proposed budget to distort its original intent and disconnect it from the nation’s long-term development agenda. Many inserted projects usually lack proper conceptualisation, design, and cost estimation, undermining their effectiveness and feasibility. We believe that the legislature must exercise this power with the utmost responsibility. This responsibility, which cannot be overstated, entails ensuring resource efficiency, eliminating waste, and aligning budgetary decisions with the nation’s long-term economic development goals.

“Also, we have observed that the 2025 proposed budget breakdown submitted to the National Assembly for review and approval and published on the Budget Office website omits the breakdown of some MDAs, commissions, and councils, such as the National Judicial Council (₦341.63 billion), and TETFUND (₦940.5 billion). The budgets of over 60 government-owned enterprises (GOEs), including the Nigeria Ports Authority, Nigeria Customs Service, Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency (NIMASA), etc., were conspicuously absent from the 2025 Proposed Budget.

“Furthermore, a combined ₦2.49 trillion has been allocated to five regional development commissions (Niger Delta: ₦776.53 billion; South West: ₦498.40 billion; North East: ₦290.99 billion; North West: ₦585.93 billion; and South East: ₦341.27 billion) under the umbrella of personnel costs. This approach obscures the true nature of these commissions’ operational expenses. For context, the Ministry of Interior, responsible for overseeing the Nigeria Immigration Service, Nigeria Correctional Service, Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps (NSCDC), Federal Fire Service, and their governing board, has a significantly lower recurrent non-debt expenditure allocation of N648.84 billion. This amount covers personnel and overhead costs for the entire ministry and its agencies. Lumping development commission budgets under personnel costs raises concerns about transparency and accountability. It hinders proper scrutiny of how these funds are utilised and whether they effectively achieve their intended development objectives.

“More worrisome is the fact that the 2025 budget notably omits funding for the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Road, a capital-intensive infrastructure project. This omission implies that if funding for this project materialises, it will likely necessitate reallocating funds from other critical projects, potentially hindering their implementation and impacting the budget’s credibility. It is worth noting that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s recent pronouncement regarding the retirement package of military generals, which includes the provision of a bulletproof SUV, fully paid foreign medical treatment, $20,000 as estacode for medical trips, and payments for domestic help, contradicts his previous commitments to reduce the cost of governance and welfare packages to top-ranked public officials and civil servants. Such provisions not only inflate the budget and widen the fiscal deficit but may also demoralise lower-ranking military personnel, who lack adequate health insurance and retirement benefits despite their higher exposure to combat risks.

“As the National Assembly reviews the 2025 Proposed Budget, BudgIT appeals to the 360 Honourable Members of the Federal House of Representatives and 109 Distinguished Senators of the Nigerian Senate to prioritise national interest over personal or parochial considerations and ensure that the approved budget stimulates economic activities and macroeconomic stability, allocates resources to foster economic growth and development, equitably distributes resources to reduce poverty and inequality, and caters to the most vulnerable Nigerians.”


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