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Nigeria inches closer to rate cut as outlook improves

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by Lukman Otunuga, Research Analyst at FXTM

 

July was another encouraging trading month for the Nigerian economy, thanks to the stabilizing macroeconomic environment.

 

Annual inflation eased for the seventeenth consecutive month, while positive core economic metrics pointed to further signs of improving stability. Elevated global Oil prices have boosted government reviews and heavily supported foreign exchange markets. The overall outlook for Nigeria remains positive, especially when considering how the IMF has raised its growth forecast and the World Bank has indicated its willingness to provide the nation with technical support. According to the IMF, Nigeria’s economic growth rate in 2019 is projected to hit 2.3%, an improvement from the earlier 1.9% forecast thanks to an improved outlook on global Oil prices. As we head into the second trading month of Q2, there is likely to be an increasing focus on the Central Bank of Nigeria. With inflation pressures easing and economic conditions improving, the burning question among investors is when interest rates will be cut.

 

Consumer prices in the largest economy in Africa have cooled, from 11.61% in May to 11.23% MoM in June, its slowest pace in over two years. With inflationary pressures clearly becoming a theme of the past and gravitating closer to the CBN’s 6% – 9% target, logic states that a rate cut could be around the corner. However, external and domestic risks ranging from global trade tensions, prospects of higher US interest rates and political risk at home could sabotage the central banks to cut rates. A sense of uncertainty ahead of the 2019 elections coupled with the possibility of pre-election spending stimulating demand-pull inflation could complicate matters for the CBN.

 

Escalating global trade tensions remain a significant threat to global growth and stability which is bad news for Emerging Markets. With trade tensions escalating between Nigeria’s two biggest trading partners, the nation could be caught in the firing line like many other emerging market currencies. An appreciating Dollar and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy strategy may also play an important role in when or if the CBN takes action. Market expectations remain elevated over the Federal Reserve raising US interest rates two more times this year, which may spark capital outflows from Emerging Markets. While a rate cut in Nigeria has the ability to boost economic growth by promoting spending and investment, it may widen the monetary policy divergence between the Fed and CBN.

 

What seemed like an easy decision for the CBN could turn difficult as the year progresses, especially when factoring in how the bullish sentiment towards the US economy has boosted speculation of a Fed rate hike. Will the CBN be willing to widen the US – Nigeria interest rate differential to pursue economic growth? Or will rates be left unchanged in a bid to prevent any unexpected downside shocks ahead of the general elections in 2019?

 

With Oil prices vulnerable to losses amid a possible return of oversupply concerns and Dollar strength remaining a dominant market theme, this toxic combination may present downside risks to Nigeria’s economic recovery. If second-quarter economic growth prints above market expectations and domestic inflation cools to single digits, the CBN could be given an opportunity to cut interest rates in Q4.

 

 

 


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E-Financial

Nigerian Banking Sector Fraud Increases Threefold to N53Bn -NIBSS

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Money lost to fraud in Nigeria’s banking system has nearly tripled over the past five years, according to an analysis released by the Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System (NIBSS).

Nigerian Banking Sector Fraud Increases Threefold to N53Bn -NIBSS

NIBSS estimated that N52.3 billion was lost to fraud in 2024, compared to 11.6 billion in 2020.

The report also indicated that fraudsters illegally attempted to obtain N86.4 billion in 2024.

These figures were reported shortly after the latest GDP statistics showed a fourth-quarter growth of 3.8 per cent, the highest rate in three years, primarily fueled by the services sector, which includes finance and insurance.

Nigeria’s digital payments system is considered one of the strongest in Africa, and tech startups in the nation secured approximately $400 million in funding in 2024.

Such financial services have gained greater significance recently due to a cash shortage and currency reforms, which have driven more users to abandon physical banknotes.

“The amount lost to fraud has increased over the past five years along with the growth of financial transactions in the digital payments sector,” NIBSS said.

Reports indicated that fraudsters are employing various tactics, including the conversion of funds into gift cards and the establishment of accounts using the stolen identities of elderly individuals, minors, and foreigners.

The report suggested that N400 million had been deposited into accounts created with the stolen identities of senior citizens.

NIBSS noted that some funds have been retrieved, and bank employees involved in the fraud are under investigation.

Nigeria is classified as a “grey list country” by international watchdogs, alongside nations such as South Sudan, Bulgaria, Monaco, and Croatia, due to weaknesses in its measures against money laundering and financing terrorism.

Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) has also apprehended multiple foreigners concerning internet fraud. In December, the agency took into custody 792 suspects in the upscale Victoria Island region of Nigeria’s central city, Lagos.

According to the agency, at least 192 suspects were identified as foreign nationals, with 148 being Chinese.

Dele Oyewale, spokesman, EFCC, said in a press release that foreign criminal organizations recruit Nigerian partners to target victims online through phishing schemes, primarily focusing on individuals in the United States, Canada, Mexico, and various European nations.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


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MTN Group Fintech Announces Payment Alliance with Network in Africa

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MTN Group Fintech, described as Africa’s leading mobile financial services provider, has appointed Network International, an enabler of digital commerce across the Middle East and Africa (MEA), as its partner for Payment Processor – Issuing.

MTN Group Fintech Announces Payment Alliance with Network in Africa

This partnership, said that the two companies, marks a significant extension of Network’s portfolio of issuer processing collaborations throughout the African continent.

The partnership will focus on rolling out card issuance products across key MTN Fintech markets, starting with Rwanda which is already operational.

Soon, Uganda, Cote d’Ivoire and Nigeria will also be covered by this collaboration.

Network International says it will provide a comprehensive range of services, including transaction processing, card management and online fraud prevention.

It added that MTN Fintech users will benefit from a seamless experience accessing both traditional mobile services and innovative digital payment solutions.

With a footprint spanning over 50 countries and serving over 250 financial institutions, Network International said that it brings its expertise to a partnership that will enhance MTN Fintech’s cutting-edge mobile services and provide even greater value to stakeholders and customers across Africa.

MTN Group provides voice, data, fintech, enterprise wholesale and API services to more than 288 million customers in 14 African markets.

Dr. Reda Helal, group managing director – Processing, Africa and Co-Head Group Processing at Network International said: “Our collaboration with MTN Group Fintech marks a major milestone for our outsourced payments services in Africa. It demonstrates our ability to successfully serve mobile network operators via our fully-fledged processing solutions and our continued dedication and commitment to the African region.”

Cedric N’guessan, executive for Payment and E-commerce at MTN Group Fintech, added: “This collaboration with Network International is pivotal in enhancing financial inclusion across Africa and beyond. It enables our customers to actively engage in the global economy, aligning perfectly with our strategic goals alongside Mastercard to broaden access to digital financial services across the continent.”


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NDIC Seeks Stronger Legal Collaboration in Bank Liquidation, Debt Recovery

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The Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC) has emphasised the need for greater collaboration with legal professionals to enhance the liquidation and debt recovery processes following bank failures.

Bello Hassan, Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer, stated this while speaking at the sensitisation seminar for external solicitors in Lagos.

He highlighted the role of external solicitors in ensuring the smooth resolution of failing financial institutions, particularly in the aftermath of Heritage Bank’s collapse.

Hassan, who was represented by Henry Fomah, the Head, Legal Department, NDIC, noted that bank liquidation is inherently tied to litigation, requiring extensive legal expertise to recover debts, resolve creditor claims, and maximise asset realisation.

He said: “The recent failure of Heritage Bank, highlighted the intricate nature of bank liquidation and the vital role of collaboration with our external solicitors. Liquidation, by its nature, is intertwined with litigation.

“The NDIC, in fulfilling its responsibilities, engages in legal proceedings both as plaintiff and defendant, representing the interests of depositors and creditors while also pursuing debt recovery from debtors of closed banks. The recovery of these debts and the realization of assets are crucial to achieving our corporate objectives.

“Beyond paying the insured sums to depositors from the Corporation’s deposit insurance funds (DIF), the NDIC is as liquidator is also obligated to settle uninsured portion of deposits and all legitimate creditor claims from the realised assets of the insured institution in-liquidation.

“I am pleased to report that the Corporation has consistently fulfilled this responsibility, a success largely attributable to our collaborative partnerships, including the invaluable contributions of our external solicitors. While we acknowledge the challenges some of you have encountered during litigation, we urge you to continue your diligent efforts in assisting the Corporation with debt recovery and asset realization.

“The NDIC deeply values its stakeholders as essential partners in achieving its corporate objectives. We actively seek your continued collaboration and support in promoting financial system stability through a deeper understanding of the dynamics of the Deposit Insurance System in Nigeria. The consistent support we have received from our external solicitors is evident in the impressive attendance and active participation at previous seminars.”


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