General News
Nigeria Monetary Policy Makers in Tight Spot as Stagflation Takes Hold
Monetary policymakers are in a tough spot after COVID-19 claimed the economy as a victim of lockdowns and reduced activity. The central bank has to take on a therapeutic role to nurse the country back to health. Are the available remedies enough to save the patient or have decades of over-reliance on the cover-all solution of strong oil revenues blunted their effectiveness?
CBN unlikely to cut rates
In its January decision, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) left its key interest rate unchanged at 11.5 percent, citing the pursuit of price stability. While other central banks adopted looser monetary policy to defend their economies against COVID-19, the CBN simply doesn’t have enough breathing room because it is dealing with stagflation marked by price inflation in the essential needs sector and a loss of productivity at the same time.
The CBN shows decisiveness and determination to reverse the stagflation and loss of output trends, according to its January meeting statement. Even amid the headwinds, it’s encouraging that the CBN realises the problem and is taking measures to handle it.
Nigeria faces severe stagflation
The economic consequences of COVID-19 are the environment of stagflation with rising inflation and a recessionary economy, said the CBN. Stagflation is characterised by price rises which occur when there is an increase in inflation and at the same time an increase in unemployment and lower economic output. Meanwhile, import restrictions announced by the central bank to help local producers have added to fuel inflation which hit a three-year high in December.
Traditional monetary policy is hard-pressed to find a solution to both stagflation and a depressed economy at the same time. Lowering interest rates is one option but in Nigeria’s case might lead to an increase in inflation which is well above the target rate of six to nine percent and make things worse.
The remedy for stagflation depends on treating the root causes. These are the extensive pandemic lockdowns, chronically high inflation, and uncertainties in the oil markets feeding into reduced output and fiscal risks. While most of the causes are likely to pass once the pandemic is under control, none of them appears to have an early ending at the time of writing. Vaccination programmes take time to be effective and meanwhile demand for oil remains at relatively low levels because of travel restrictions.
Economic recession
Nigeria struggles with a recession with the threat of higher unemployment and poverty rates exacerbated by the public health threat from COVID-19. The recession impacts the buying power of the Naira and comes at a bad time after the central bank’s efforts to manage the currency and stoke economic growth in recent years rather than just focusing on keeping inflation in its target band of six to nine percent.
Monetary authorities had to devalue the Naira twice last year after a shortage of dollars pushed up import prices and increased the gap between the official and black-market exchange rates.
Unconventional tools of growth
In January, the CBN disbursed N20 trillion to cushion the pandemic effects and support the signs of improvement which came thanks to easing lockdown restrictions and more promising Oil prices. The CBN said that N192.64 billion was disbursed to households and small businesses from the COVID-19 Targeted Credit Facility.
The deployment of funds directly to their targets is certainly a significant support for the economy but the second wave of infections and ongoing uncertainty about the vaccine rollout threatens to sabotage any meaningful recovery, at least in the short term.
Too early to tighten?
The coronavirus is the dovish factor in the CBN’s price stability mandate and the central bank is likely to adopt a wait-and-see approach for the foreseeable future. Tightening monetary policy this year may be too soon and make Nigeria an outlier among major economies expected to ease or hold rates at record lows to breathe new life into their economies.
Other than direct funding, the CBN may end up using additional unconventional tools to revive growth including tweaking the loan to deposit ratio, the liquidity ratio, and cash reserve ratio. The questions are whether these will be enough to save the patient from more financial pain and what will be the long-term effects on Nigeria’s economic health.
Zainab Salami, executive director and co-founder, MSwitch Creative Hub, on Sunday revealed that over 53% of young Nigerians aged 15-24 are jobless, emphasizing the urgent need for strategic interventions to tackle the crisis.
She emphasized MSwitch’s commitment to empowering young creatives and digital professionals by equipping them with the skills and opportunities needed for sustainable careers.
Salami disclosed this in Abuja during the MSwitch launch of the ‘Remote Job Initiative,’ a groundbreaking program in partnership with AfriLabs, aimed at positioning Nigeria as a global hub for digital excellence.
She emphasized that the initiative seeks to connect Nigerian talent with global employers, strengthening the country’s presence in the international digital economy.
She noted that the program aims to bridge the gap between talent and opportunity by equipping youth with essential skills, access to global employers, and state-of-the-art co-working spaces.
Salami said: “Over 53% of young Nigerians aged 15-24 are either unemployed or underemployed. This program will create 2,000 remote job opportunities for young creatives and tech professionals, enabling them to earn, grow, and contribute to the nation’s economy without leaving the country.
“Beyond job placement, this initiative is designed to equip young professionals with the tools and environment needed for long-term success.
“To support this, we are investing in infrastructure and establishing fully equipped co-working spaces with 24/7 electricity, high-speed internet, cutting-edge technology, and industry-standard tools to maximize productivity.”
In his remarks, Ajibola Odukoya, chief operating officer, AfriLabs, described the organization’s expansive footprint across Africa and its dedication to capacity building.
He emphasized that beyond training, the next step is placing Africans in gainful employment.
Odukoya said: “AfriLabs is the largest network of innovation and technology hubs in Africa. We operate in 53 countries, across 225 cities, with 500 physical locations, and have about 80 million people in our ecosystem.
“We have partnered with international businesses and generated a pool of over 200,000 job vacancies targeted at Africans of all ages, as long as they qualify. To solve infrastructure challenges associated with remote work in Africa, we are using our innovation hubs, such as MSwitch in Abuja, as dedicated workstations with world-class facilities to support productivity,” Odukoya added.
Uche Nnaji, Minister of Innovation, Science and Technology, has emphasized the crucial role of Science, Technology, and Innovation (ST&I) in tackling national challenges and fostering economic growth.
Speaking at the launch of the Sankore Project, a collaborative initiative between Nigeria and Ghana, Nnaji highlighted how ST&I can drive economic diversification, job creation, climate resilience, improved public health, food security, and sustainable energy development.
“The Sankore Project promises to deliver innovative solutions that will significantly enhance economic growth, improve public service delivery, and raise living standards across our region,” Nnaji stated.
He added that the initiative aligns with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s 8-point agenda, particularly in advancing technology, capacity building, and economic growth.
The project, supported by the UK’s International Development arm, is backed by an accountable grant delivery mechanism worth up to £1.9 million. It aims to strengthen ST&I systems in both Nigeria and Ghana through structured project delivery and rigorous monitoring of impacts.
Susan Mshana, Deputy Development Director at the British High Commission, explained that the funding, provided by the UK’s Foreign Commonwealth Development Office, will be executed in two work streams to reinforce science and technology partnerships between the UK, Nigeria, and Ghana.
Ghana’s Minister of Environment, Science, and Technology, Dr. Ibrahim Murtala Muhammed, underscored the importance of collaboration in Africa’s development, urging Nigeria to take a leadership role in the continent’s innovation landscape.
“Nigeria is a sleeping giant that needs to wake up, so the rest of Africa can wake up. This initiative provides an opportunity to drive innovation, create jobs, and collectively overcome shared challenges”, Muhammed said.
He further stressed the need to commercialize research output, urging stakeholders to shift from skepticism to practical application.
As both nations forge ahead with the Sankore Project, stakeholders express optimism that the partnership will catalyze scientific breakthroughs and sustainable development in the region.
Nigeria has plans to launch a $40 million fund to support early-stage tech startups, aiming to strengthen the country’s entrepreneurial ecosystem and reduce young companies’ reliance on private investors.
The fund will be equally financed by the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) and the Nigeria Sovereign Investment Authority (NSIA), which manages the national sovereign wealth fund.
Kashifu Inuwa Abdullahi, director general, National Information Technology Development Agency (NITDA), confirmed the final agreement would be signed within the next month.
The initiative is part of Nigeria’s Startup Act, adopted in October 2022, which aims to create a favorable environment for startups through tax incentives and financial support.
The act established a 10 billion naira (approximately $8.6 million) annual fund to finance certified startups through seed funding, grants, or loans.
According to Disrupt Africa, Nigeria’s startup ecosystem attracted over $2 billion in investments between January 2015 and August 2022, positioning the country as Africa’s leader.
Companies like Flutterwave, Andela, and Opay achieved multi-billion-dollar valuations.
, fundraising dropped to $224 million in 2023, down from $531 million in 2022 and over $1 billion in 2021.
This decline highlights the need for government intervention to revitalize the tech ecosystem amid investor caution.
The new fund marks a significant step for Nigeria, which aims to foster local innovation.
Currently, 12,948 companies are registered as startups, benefiting from a three-year tax exemption. Low awareness of the law’s benefits has prompted the government to plan a nationwide information campaign.
By facilitating access to funding, the initiative could strengthen support for existing startups and stimulate new tech ventures, reinforcing Nigeria’s position as a leading hub for digital innovation in Africa.
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