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Nigeria Monetary Policy Makers in Tight Spot as Stagflation Takes Hold

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By Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM
Nigerian monetary policymakers face three main pressures this quarter: the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and a pressing need for economic stimulus in addition to stagflation and a weakened Naira.

Monetary policymakers are in a tough spot after COVID-19 claimed the economy as a victim of lockdowns and reduced activity. The central bank has to take on a therapeutic role to nurse the country back to health. Are the available remedies enough to save the patient or have decades of over-reliance on the cover-all solution of strong oil revenues blunted their effectiveness?

CBN unlikely to cut rates

In its January decision, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) left its key interest rate unchanged at 11.5 percent, citing the pursuit of price stability. While other central banks adopted looser monetary policy to defend their economies against COVID-19, the CBN simply doesn’t have enough breathing room because it is dealing with stagflation marked by price inflation in the essential needs sector and a loss of productivity at the same time.

The CBN shows decisiveness and determination to reverse the stagflation and loss of output trends, according to its January meeting statement. Even amid the headwinds, it’s encouraging that the CBN realises the problem and is taking measures to handle it.

Nigeria faces severe stagflation 

The economic consequences of COVID-19 are the environment of stagflation with rising inflation and a recessionary economy, said the CBN. Stagflation is characterised by price rises which occur when there is an increase in inflation and at the same time an increase in unemployment and lower economic output. Meanwhile, import restrictions announced by the central bank to help local producers have added to fuel inflation which hit a three-year high in December.

Traditional monetary policy is hard-pressed to find a solution to both stagflation and a depressed economy at the same time. Lowering interest rates is one option but in Nigeria’s case might lead to an increase in inflation which is well above the target rate of six to nine percent and make things worse.

The remedy for stagflation depends on treating the root causes. These are the extensive pandemic lockdowns, chronically high inflation, and uncertainties in the oil markets feeding into reduced output and fiscal risks. While most of the causes are likely to pass once the pandemic is under control, none of them appears to have an early ending at the time of writing. Vaccination programmes take time to be effective and meanwhile demand for oil remains at relatively low levels because of travel restrictions.

Economic recession

Nigeria struggles with a recession with the threat of higher unemployment and poverty rates exacerbated by the public health threat from COVID-19. The recession impacts the buying power of the Naira and comes at a bad time after the central bank’s efforts to manage the currency and stoke economic growth in recent years rather than just focusing on keeping inflation in its target band of six to nine percent.

Monetary authorities had to devalue the Naira twice last year after a shortage of dollars pushed up import prices and increased the gap between the official and black-market exchange rates.

Unconventional tools of growth

In January, the CBN disbursed N20 trillion to cushion the pandemic effects and support the signs of improvement which came thanks to easing lockdown restrictions and more promising Oil prices. The CBN said that N192.64 billion was disbursed to households and small businesses from the COVID-19 Targeted Credit Facility.

The deployment of funds directly to their targets is certainly a significant support for the economy but the second wave of infections and ongoing uncertainty about the vaccine rollout threatens to sabotage any meaningful recovery, at least in the short term.

Too early to tighten?

The coronavirus is the dovish factor in the CBN’s price stability mandate and the central bank is likely to adopt a wait-and-see approach for the foreseeable future. Tightening monetary policy this year may be too soon and make Nigeria an outlier among major economies expected to ease or hold rates at record lows to breathe new life into their economies.

Other than direct funding, the CBN may end up using additional unconventional tools to revive growth including tweaking the loan to deposit ratio, the liquidity ratio, and cash reserve ratio. The questions are whether these will be enough to save the patient from more financial pain and what will be the long-term effects on Nigeria’s economic health.


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Afreximbank and Ecobank Join Forces to Boost Trade and Compliance Across Africa

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African Export-Import Bank and Ecobank Group have embarked on a collaboration aimed at simplifying trade and compliance for businesses in Africa by integrating Ecobank’s Single Market Trade Hub and Afreximbank’s MANSA Digital Repository Platform.

With the collaboration, African businesses will benefit from seamless shared services across the two platforms, with users of the Single Market Trade Hub able to easily leverage MANSA’s comprehensive database for efficient know-thy-customer (KYC) and customer due diligence (CDD) checks while MANSA platform users would, in turn, be able to directly connect to the Single Market Trade Hub to explore trade opportunities to expand their businesses across Africa.

The Ecobank Single Market Trade Hub connects registered businesses across Africa on a single platform, helping them benefit from opportunities in the unified market of 1.4 billion people created by the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA).

It serves as a one-stop repository for the AfCFTA by providing small and medium-scale enterprises (SMEs) and corporates with insights about the agreement while its online match-making feature enables importers and exporters to upload their profiles and showcase goods and services they offer, or wish to source, with the aim of finding partners within Africa.

Once a match is found, connections are made via the platform and the transaction can be concluded leveraging on Ecobank’s trade and payment solutions in 35 African markets.

The MANSA Digital Repository Platform, or MANSA, is a one-stop-shop for due diligence matters on all African entities. As a centralised digital repository, MANSA seeks to eliminate information asymmetry and to increase intra-African trade and trade with the rest of the world.

It drives and promotes good governance culture among African SMEs and creates visibility for their businesses while also supporting African entities to expand, diversify and add value to their export products at both the local and international levels. Entities onboarded unto MANSA are allotted an Africa Entity Identifier (AEI) code which enables them to leverage other Afreximbank products and initiatives.

MANSA is also a key digital solution at the Africa Trade Gateway (ATG) marketplace which houses a suite of digital platforms designed as a single window to enable Afreximbank better deliver on its mandate, providing critical services to support and promote intra-African trade and the implementation of the AfCFTA. The platform enables African entities to accelerate their business activities at the ATG marketplace by working with verified information on trusted counterparties.

The new collaboration is, therefore, enabling Ecobank and Afreximbank to provide a central solution to the key challenge of KYC compliance and access to business across 35 countries in Africa. The improved interoperability is expected to further streamline cross-border trade and compliance in Africa, fostering greater financial and economic integration on the continent.

Afreximbank is a pan-African multilateral financial institution established to finance and promote intra- and extra-African trade.

Ecobank Group is a leading private pan-African banking group with unrivalled African expertise.


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Leadway Assurance Pledges Transformative Role to SMEs

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Leadway Assurance said it has chosen to go beyond risk underwriting to play the role of transformative partner for Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) in the country.

The underwriting firm played this role by empowering SMEs with practical strategies on how to navigate risks inherent in Yuletide season.

Leadway recently organized a webinar session for SMEs titled, “Driving Increased Sales During the Festive Season.”

Speaking on the reason for the session, the underwriting firm said it realized that as momentum into the 2024 festive season continued, businesses, especially small and medium enterprises (SMEs), face paradoxical realities of increased sales opportunities and consequent cocktails of business risks.

It said recognising the fact that with consumer spending and holiday making increasing businesses for SMEs, there were the possibilities of risk from these spikes in commercial activities such as – theft, accidents, burglaries, fire outbreaks, frauds, and system failures.

Against this backdrop Leadway said it has reaffirmed its position as a transformative partner to SMEs by empowering businesses with practical strategies for navigating the complexities of the season.

“This aligns with the brand’s mission to deliver robust risk management and business solutions to bolster economic growth, Head of the Retail Division at Leadway, Umashime Oguzor-Doghro said.

As connected to insurance, Oguzor-Doghro said: “Insurance was often seen as a reactive tool, but at Leadway, we position it as a strategic asset. With our competitive risk management solutions—spanning property, transit, and employee coverage, we enable businesses to operate with confidence, knowing they are protected from the unforeseen.

What sets us apart is our free advisory service, which ensures businesses are fully equipped before they even take up our insurance products.” he added.

In addition to risk management, Oguzor- Doghro said the webinar championed collaboration as a catalyst for success, adding that Leadway’s partnerships with event managers and SME stakeholders aim to ensure seamless operations during the festive season, reinforcing the company’s role as more than just an insurer but a reliable business ally.


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Mastercard, MTN, and Arifu Launch Digital Skills Program for African Small Businesses

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Mastercard Center for Inclusive Growth, MTN Group Fintech and Arifu have partnered to support about one million small businesses in Cote’ D’Ivoire and Uganda, to digitize their operations, increase the use of digital financial services and access digital marketplaces through the MoMo Coach chatbot.

This program, part of the Center’s global Mastercard Strive initiative, aims to enhance the resilience and growth of small businesses by providing essential digital skills. It is one of the ways Mastercard Strive has disseminated chatbot-ready business building content for small businesses in the region, which is currently also available in Kenya and Nigeria.

Small businesses in sub-Saharan Africa, especially those impacted by the pandemic, have faced significant barriers in adopting digital tools. As of December 2022, only 27.65% of businesses in sub-Saharan Africa had adopted digital tools to enhance their efficiency, showing a slight improvement from 19.44% in August 2020. A lack of relevant skills continues to limit their growth and access to essential financial services. MoMo Coach addresses these gaps by providing free, accessible upskilling content via popular messaging platforms.

Supported by the Mastercard Center for Inclusive Growth and delivered by Caribou Digital, this program equips small businesses with digital skills, enabling them to adopt digital tools, access capital, and engage more effectively in digital marketplaces. The program aligns with Mastercard Strive’s broader goal of reaching 18 million small businesses around the world to go digital, get capital, and access networks and know-how.

“Small businesses are vital to Africa’s growth and create opportunities for a more resilient and inclusive regional economy. We are delighted to catalyze a partnership between MTN Group Fintech and Arifu to equip almost one million small business owners with the digital skills and knowledge essential for thriving in an increasingly digital economy, setting them up for success.” said Subhashini Chandran, Senior Vice President of Social Impact for Asia Pacific, Europe, Middle East and Africa

The MoMo Coach solution, powered by Arifu’s Grasp Platform, uses mobile messaging to deliver micro-learning experiences. It is accessible across multiple channels, including WhatsApp, Telegram, Facebook Messenger, SMS and MoMo. This gives small business owners and entrepreneurs flexibility in accessing practical, actionable tips to unlock growth opportunities in the digital economy.

Serigne Dioum, CEO of MTN Group Fintech, further adds: “Empowering small businesses with digital skills is key to driving inclusive growth in Africa. Through MoMo Coach, we are unlocking opportunities for entrepreneurs to thrive in the digital economy, strengthening communities, and shaping the future of business across the continent.”

The program has been rolled out in Côte d’Ivoire and Uganda, reaching over 930,000 MTN customers, merchants, and agents, with more than 75,000 small business owners accessing free digital courses and over 45,000 actively engaging with MoMo Coach. Courses offered include “How to Start Your Business,” “Money Management,” and “Grow and Secure Your Business.” These courses are based on insights derived from MoMo merchants and agents, and they address key challenges like affordability and access to relevant business knowledge—enabling small business owners to navigate the digital landscape.

Aminata, a 31-year-old business owner from Gôh-Djiboua, Côte d’Ivoire, is one of the many beneficiaries of MoMo Coach. Selling shoes and clothing since 2022, she says: “There’s a lot of competition, but MoMo Coach helps me sell better. Before, I used all my profits to buy new stock, which left me using my capital for expenses. Now, I split my profits: one part for business growth, another for expenses, and some savings for other projects.” She has also started using WhatsApp to increase her sales, noting: “My income has increased. When I post my goods, I sell more.”


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