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Nigeria Monetary Policy Makers in Tight Spot as Stagflation Takes Hold

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By Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM
Nigerian monetary policymakers face three main pressures this quarter: the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and a pressing need for economic stimulus in addition to stagflation and a weakened Naira.

Monetary policymakers are in a tough spot after COVID-19 claimed the economy as a victim of lockdowns and reduced activity. The central bank has to take on a therapeutic role to nurse the country back to health. Are the available remedies enough to save the patient or have decades of over-reliance on the cover-all solution of strong oil revenues blunted their effectiveness?

CBN unlikely to cut rates

In its January decision, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) left its key interest rate unchanged at 11.5 percent, citing the pursuit of price stability. While other central banks adopted looser monetary policy to defend their economies against COVID-19, the CBN simply doesn’t have enough breathing room because it is dealing with stagflation marked by price inflation in the essential needs sector and a loss of productivity at the same time.

The CBN shows decisiveness and determination to reverse the stagflation and loss of output trends, according to its January meeting statement. Even amid the headwinds, it’s encouraging that the CBN realises the problem and is taking measures to handle it.

Nigeria faces severe stagflation 

The economic consequences of COVID-19 are the environment of stagflation with rising inflation and a recessionary economy, said the CBN. Stagflation is characterised by price rises which occur when there is an increase in inflation and at the same time an increase in unemployment and lower economic output. Meanwhile, import restrictions announced by the central bank to help local producers have added to fuel inflation which hit a three-year high in December.

Traditional monetary policy is hard-pressed to find a solution to both stagflation and a depressed economy at the same time. Lowering interest rates is one option but in Nigeria’s case might lead to an increase in inflation which is well above the target rate of six to nine percent and make things worse.

The remedy for stagflation depends on treating the root causes. These are the extensive pandemic lockdowns, chronically high inflation, and uncertainties in the oil markets feeding into reduced output and fiscal risks. While most of the causes are likely to pass once the pandemic is under control, none of them appears to have an early ending at the time of writing. Vaccination programmes take time to be effective and meanwhile demand for oil remains at relatively low levels because of travel restrictions.

Economic recession

Nigeria struggles with a recession with the threat of higher unemployment and poverty rates exacerbated by the public health threat from COVID-19. The recession impacts the buying power of the Naira and comes at a bad time after the central bank’s efforts to manage the currency and stoke economic growth in recent years rather than just focusing on keeping inflation in its target band of six to nine percent.

Monetary authorities had to devalue the Naira twice last year after a shortage of dollars pushed up import prices and increased the gap between the official and black-market exchange rates.

Unconventional tools of growth

In January, the CBN disbursed N20 trillion to cushion the pandemic effects and support the signs of improvement which came thanks to easing lockdown restrictions and more promising Oil prices. The CBN said that N192.64 billion was disbursed to households and small businesses from the COVID-19 Targeted Credit Facility.

The deployment of funds directly to their targets is certainly a significant support for the economy but the second wave of infections and ongoing uncertainty about the vaccine rollout threatens to sabotage any meaningful recovery, at least in the short term.

Too early to tighten?

The coronavirus is the dovish factor in the CBN’s price stability mandate and the central bank is likely to adopt a wait-and-see approach for the foreseeable future. Tightening monetary policy this year may be too soon and make Nigeria an outlier among major economies expected to ease or hold rates at record lows to breathe new life into their economies.

Other than direct funding, the CBN may end up using additional unconventional tools to revive growth including tweaking the loan to deposit ratio, the liquidity ratio, and cash reserve ratio. The questions are whether these will be enough to save the patient from more financial pain and what will be the long-term effects on Nigeria’s economic health.


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Researchers Develop Innovative Treatment for Malaria

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An international team of researchers have introduced a groundbreaking drug, known as the covalent kinase inhibitor, which shows promise in combating treatment-resistant malaria.

Researchers Develop Innovative Treatment for Malaria

Developed by chemists and bioscientists from the University of Glasgow, this innovative drug could surpass current medications by effectively targeting and disabling the proteins used by the Plasmodium falciparum parasite to replicate within the human body.

This is according to a report titled “Targeting Pf CLK3 with Covalent Inhibitors: A Novel Strategy for Malaria Treatment.”

The development, led by chemists and bioscientists from the University of Glasgow, was outlined in a November publication in the “Journal of Medicinal Chemistry.”

According to the researchers, covalent inhibitors form bonds with proteins, usually irreversibly modifying them, and this new drug could be more effective than current medications at all stages of malaria infection.

The new drug works by permanently disabling a protein that Plasmodium falciparum, one of the mosquito-borne parasites that spread malaria, uses to replicate itself inside the human body.

The drug also has the potential to work as a single-dose treatment, a significant improvement over existing therapies.

This breakthrough marks the first adaptation of an approach from cancer treatments to tackle malaria.

The team expressed optimism that the parasite is unlikely to develop resistance to the new drug, which targets the protein Pf CLK3 and disrupts the parasite’s ability to splice RNA.

The researchers, including Prof. Martins Emeje from the Nigerian Natural Medicines Development Agency and Prof. Oyewale Tomori from the West African Academy of Sciences, emphasise the importance of regular calibration and accreditation for medical laboratories to ensure accurate results and reliable treatment.

 

 


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Nigeria to Host ICEGOV 2025, A Milestone in Digital Governance and Global Leadership

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The Federal Ministry of Communications, Innovation & Digital Economy, Nigeria has been officially confirmed as the host country for the 2025 International Conference on Theory and Practice of Electronic Governance (ICEGOV) edition.

This confirmation by the United Nations University Operating Unit on Policy-Driven Electronic Governance (UNU-EGOV) marks a historic milestone in our nation’s digital transformation journey, showcasing Nigeria’s leadership in digital governance, innovation, and technological advancements on the global stage.

ICEGOV is a prestigious global conference that convenes governments, academia, international organisations, industry leaders, and civil society to exchange insights, research, and best practices in electronic governance.

Hosting this event presents a unique opportunity to strengthen Nigeria’s digital ecosystem, foster multidisciplinary collaborations, and drive policy innovations that will shape the future of governance in Africa and beyond.

Speaking on this momentous achievement, the Honourable Minister of Communications, Innovation & Digital Economy, Dr. ‘Bosun Tijani, stated: “Nigeria’s selection to host ICEGOV 2025 is a recognition of our efforts to drive digital transformation and innovation in governance.

“I am a firm believer in the importance of the academia and research in supporting global discussions on e-Governance and we have seen this in some of the input in government initiatives like the National AI Strategy and the National Digital Economy and e-Governance Bill which are laying the foundation for the growth of Nigeria’s Digital Economy.

“As we prepare to welcome you all to Nigeria, we look forward to very useful outcomes that will be beneficial for the growth of digital governance and policy development globally.”


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MTN Nigeria Foundation Supports Education with Donation of School Supplies to 1000+ Students

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MTN Nigeria Foundation recently embarked on an initiative to donate support materials to nominated schools in seven states across the six geopolitical zones, including Edo, Oyo, Katsina, Nasarawa, Bauchi, Anambra and Enugu.

Odunayo Sanya, Executive Secretary, MTN Foundation

The donations form part of the foundation’s Learning Support Materials Initiative (LSMI) aimed at improving learning experiences for students nationwide.

The MTNF Learning Support Material Initiative (LSMI) is a program created to empower students with essential academic tools, enabling them to reach their highest academic capabilities. Over 1000 students received vital resources such as school bags and exercise books, with the schools also receiving additional equipment like umbrellas and Wi-Fi routers to aid the implementation of technology in learning.

The initiative forms part of MTN Foundation’s broader commitment to youth empowerment and educational development in Nigeria. Over the years, the foundation has invested in education through several initiatives. These include the MTN Scholarship Scheme for science and technology students and blind scholars at the undergraduate level. Additionally, MTN Foundation’s Science and Technology Lab Project (STLP) has resulted in the refurbishment of 102 science laboratories in public secondary schools across the country.

Speaking on the Learning Support Material Initiative (LSMI) and the Foundation’s dedication to national development through education, Executive Director, MTN Foundation, Odunayo Sanya said “At MTN Nigeria Foundation, we believe that education is the cornerstone of growth and development, and all students deserve access to the resources necessary to unlock their full potential.

“This initiative emphasizes our commitment to fostering an enabling environment for learning and supporting access to quality education.”

The impact of these donations was evident and appreciated by students who expressed that the learning materials would aid their learning process and educators who affirmed that they would be put to good use.

This initiative demonstrates how corporate entities can play pivotal roles in supporting societal needs while promoting sustainable development within the communities they serve.

The Learning Support Materials Initiative by MTN Foundation highlights its unwavering dedication towards empowering young minds across Nigeria. Through strategic educational support programs, the foundation contributes to bridging resource gaps faced by several public institutions and shaping brighter futures nationwide.


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