E-Financial
Nigeria on Bumpy Road to Recovery; Foreign Exchange Reserves in Focus
By Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM,
The Nigerian economy still remains on a rocky road to recovery in the face of depressed oil prices, US-China trade uncertainty and fears over decelerating global growth.
Although the nation’s GDP expanded 1.94% during the second quarter of 2019, it is unlikely to meet the government’s 3% growth targets this year. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected Nigeria’s growth to expand 2.3% this year and 2.5% in 2020. Despite the ongoing push for economic diversification, 90% of foreign exchange earnings and 70% of government revenues are still attained from oil sales.
While the Central Bank of Nigeria can be commended on its effort to promote Naira stability, this has come at the expense of falling reserves which decreased to $42.1 billion in September. Much attention will be directed towards the pending foreign exchange reserves data for October scheduled for release on Wednesday. Further signs of reserves declining amid weak oil prices and intervention by the CBN is likely to weigh on the Naira.
Market mood brightens on trade deal optimism
The mood across financial markets continues to brighten after President Donald Trump said that Washington “was ahead of schedule” on a trade deal with China.
This encouraging news has certainly injected global equity bulls with a renewed sense of confidence as optimism increases that the two largest economies in the world will sign “phase one ” of the trade agreement soon. Shares across Asia are pushing higher on Tuesday amid the risk-on sentiment, after the S&P 500 hit an all time record high overnight on the back of trade hopes and prospects of lower interest rates by the Fed. The positive vibe from Asian markets should also support European stocks and potentially Wall Street later this afternoon.
Fourth time lucky? Johnson seeks snap election again
There was little to cheer about on Monday in Brexit news despite the European Union granting Britain a flexible three-month extension to the Brexit process until 31 January 2020.
Although this has prevented the UK from leaving the European Union on October 31 without a deal, it is simply kicking the can down the road. This sentiment is clearly being reflected in the British Pound which offered a fairly muted reaction to the third Brexit extension. With British lawmakers rejecting Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s plan for an early election in December, where do we go from here? While Johnson is expected to try again for an early election on Tuesday, history could repeat itself for the fourth time in two months. Until investors are offered proper direction and clarity on Brexit, Sterling’s rise may be capped below 1.30.
Dollar waits for FOMC meeting
The Dollar held steady against a basket of major currencies on Tuesday ahead of the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. With markets widely expecting the Fed to dish out another insurance rate cut in face of trade uncertainty and global growth concerns, much attention will be directed towards Jerome Powell’s press conference. Should Powell sound less dovish than expected, investors are likely to revaluate whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December.
Gold in the spotlight
Gold has stumbled into the trading week under pressure thanks to the improving market mood and risk-on sentiment. Given how prices are trading below the $1500 level, further downside could be on the cards in the short term.
However, investor expectations over the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in October coupled with Brexit uncertainty should stimulate appetite towards the precious metal in the medium term. The longer-term outlook will remain influenced by US-China trade developments and global growth concerns. Although most remain cautiously optimistic over the two largest economies in the world signing a “phase one” trade deal, there is still room for disappointment as talks have fallen apart in the past. Focusing on the technical picture, Gold is tracking sideways on the daily charts but the breakdown below $1500 should open a path towards $1485.
Titan Trust Bank has selected Oracle FSS for its core and digital banking technology, it is understood.
The start-up bank recently obtained its license by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
It’s understood that Temenos and Infosys also competed for the deal.
The shortlist came down to the two most widely installed international core systems in Nigeria, Infosys’ Finacle and Oracle FSS’s Flexcube.
The Nigerian banking sector has seen a great deal of upheaval over the years, with many mergers, start-ups and closures. Flexcube is a well respected name since the late 1990s (the pioneer was Access Bank, now one of the country’s top five banks) and has been a commonly selected platform since then.
The new bank is believed to be one of five to have gained regulatory approval of late (Globus Bank is another).
Local media sources say the new licences stem from the Central Bank’s desire to attract new investments into the sector and better serve the country’s 50 million+ unbanked and under-banked citizens.
Titan Bank is said to be headed by a former executive director of Heritage Bank (which is a Finacle user).
Oracle FSS did not respond to request for comment.
International Monetary Fund (IMF), has appointed Tony Elumelu, Nigerian billionaire and group chairman of Heirs Holdings, owners of United Bank of Africa, to its advisory council on entrepreneurship and growth, convened by Kristalina Georgieva, the fund managing director.
The announcement was disclosed in a statement on Friday.
According to the statement, the IMF advisory council comprises global business leaders, policymakers, and academics dedicated to identifying and addressing regulatory barriers to entrepreneurship.
The IMF said Elumelu will be instrumental in ensuring that Africa’s entrepreneurship is central in policy making.
“Elumelu, Africa’s leading advocate of entrepreneurship and whose Foundation has funded, mentored, and trained over 25,000 African entrepreneurs since 2015, champions entrepreneurship as the engine for the economic transformation of Africa,” the statement reads.
“A self-made entrepreneur, Elumelu’s embracing of entrepreneurship is fundamental to his concept of Africapitalism, his belief that Africa’s private sector can and must play a leading role in the continent’s development, making long-term investments that deliver social and economic value.
“Elumelu will be instrumental in ensuring that Africa’s entrepreneurial potential is central to global economic policy making.”
Speaking at the inaugural meeting of the advisory council on March 26, Georgieva said the appointees would share their experiences on how macroeconomic and financial policies “can provide a supportive environment for innovation, entrepreneurship, and productivity — key ingredients for a thriving private sector and strong economic growth”.
Africa’s Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises, fintech industry, scaling remittances, and cross-border payments will be the driving forces behind the continent’s digital ballooning payments system, which is estimated to reach $1.5 trillion by 2030.
This is according to a MasterCard-commissioned study by Genesis Analytics, which states that the digital payments economy is growing faster on the continent.
This comes as the World Bank says Sub-Saharan Africa has shown significant growth in financial inclusion over the past decade, much of it driven by mobile money account adoption.
Dimitrios Dosis, president, Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa at MasterCard, comments: “Africa is filled with immense possibilities, and its people have the potential to shape the global economy in the decades ahead.
“MasterCard remains deeply committed to driving digital transformation across the continent, working closely with entrepreneurs, merchants, banks, start-ups, telcos, and governments. By increasing our investments, expanding innovation, and fostering inclusion, we are helping build a more connected and accessible digital future.”
The payment technology company went on to say as a longstanding technology partner to Africa, its continues to strengthen its commitment to the continent’s digital growth through strategic investments, public-private partnerships, and innovation initiatives that drive financial health and economic growth.
In addition, it says trends in Africa signal a strong shift towards digital transactions, with businesses and consumers increasingly embracing contactless solutions, further accelerating economic participation and financial accessibility across the region.
“For over five decades, MasterCard has worked alongside African governments, businesses, and communities to advance financial inclusion and economic development.
“With Africa projected to host nine of the world’s 20 fastest-growing economies, we are focused on leveraging our expertise and a technology to support the continent’s continued digital transformation.
“Our investments today will help build a more resilient economy for the future,” says Mark Elliott, division president, Africa, MasterCard
By fostering collaboration with key stakeholders, MasterCard says it aims to enhance digital connectivity, expand economic opportunities, and enable millions of people and businesses to thrive in the digital economy.
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