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Nigeria Rate Cut on the Horizon as Global Monetary Easing Cycle Gains Momentum

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By Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM

Unfavorable macroeconomic conditions across the globe have prompted major central banks to embark on a monetary easing cycle to counter a global slowdown.

There is widespread speculation that the US Federal Reserve intends to trim interest rates in order to prevent an economic deceleration in the world’s largest economy. The global financial markets have reacted positively to the idea, which theoretically makes access to funding for business activities easier, boosting investor sentiment and economic growth. The US central bank’s caution is influencing other central banks like the European Central Bank, Bank of England and Reserve Bank of Australia among many others. In Africa, the South African Reserve Bank has already cut interest rates while the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is turning dovish amid deteriorating economic conditions in the wake of trade disputes.

However, in its July meeting, the CBN decided to keep its Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) unchanged at 13.5 percent to allow time for the full impact of other measures. So far, these include a firm bank directive from July requiring 60 percent of deposits to be available for lending to the real economy instead of buying government securities. These securities are high yield because of the current 13.5 percent MPR and understandably attractive to the banking sector seeking stable investments of their own. Making sure money is in circulation instead of being tied up in government bonds sounds like a rational way to keep the economy on the road to recovery.

After surprising markets with an unexpected rate cut in March, the central bank could cut interest rates again during the second half of 2019. However, reducing the MPR when the inflation rate is already at 11.22 percent risks further overheating prices. Like many other emerging economies, Nigeria may be exposed to the impacts of a global slowdown but its economy is very different to the US’ which is currently experiencing anemic price inflation. This may be why the CBN decided to prioritize reducing inflation to single digits and said it is in no hurry to reduce its key rate. In other effects, foreign investment in Nigeria is likely to see benefits from the CBN’s decision to hold rates at 13.5 percent. This is based on the argument that international investors may be looking for higher-yield securities than those in the mature markets, especially in the light of declining or negative interest rate environments in Europe and the US.

The global monetary easing bandwagon has affected the oil markets differently from global equities. Instead of being heartened by the prospect of better lending rates, investors are focusing on the weaker global outlook for growth and Oil demand. The fact that OPEC decided to maintain its supply cuts until 2020 on the basis of weaker demand for Oil only reinforces the impression that it would take a dramatic event to reignite supply-shortage fears. In addition, the US Oil industry is pumping output at record levels, meaning that OPEC supply cuts are effectively neutralized in terms of boosting Oil prices. These circumstances have pressured Oil price benchmarks, West Texas Intermediary (WTI) and Brent Crude. Oil prices depreciated during the course of July, pulled back by a reverse tide of lower growth expectations.

The third quarter holds the potential for the Central Bank of Nigeria to cut interest rates. A fragile economic recovery coupled with external risks in the form of trade tensions and Oil price volatility should encourage the CBN to re-join the global monetary easing bandwagon. Although a rate cut is in the pipeline, the level of inflation will determine how many times the CBN pulls the trigger on rate cuts. Signs of easing inflationary pressures during the third and fourth quarter of 2019 could offer enough breathing room for the CBN to cut rates to 13% by year end.


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E-Financial

CBN Launches New Website Today

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) will today launch its newly redesigned website, www.cbn.gov.ng.

CBN Launches New Website Today

Mrs Hakama Sidi Ali, acting director, Corporate Communications, CBN, , made this known in a statement on Sunday in Lagos.

“We are pleased to announce the launch of our newly redesigned website (www.cbn.gov.ng), which will be operational on Monday, December 2, 2024.

“The redesigned website introduces a variety of new content, which encompasses a broader spectrum of information regarding the bank’s mandate.

“Additionally, the website is responsive to mobile devices, facilitating navigation across various web browsers and devices.

“The bank is grateful for the feedback provided by the public, which served as a valuable guide for our redesign endeavours,” she said.

Sidi Ali said the CBN was committed to developing and enhancing the website to facilitate communication.

“Please follow our different social media channels linked on the website’s home page for more updates,” she said.

 

 

 


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E-Financial

CBN to Penalize Banks for Failing to Address ATM Cash Shortages

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has warned that it will impose severe penalties on banks failing to address the ongoing cash scarcity at automated teller machines (ATMs).

Olayemi Cardoso, the CBN governor, issued the warning during the annual Bankers’ Dinner hosted by the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria (CIBN) on Friday.

The cash crunch has drawn public attention, with some Nigerians taking to X on November 13 to express frustrations over empty ATMs and reliance on point-of-sale (POS) operators. Two days later, the CBN directed banks to prioritise ATM cash disbursements and cautioned that penalties would be imposed on those enabling currency hawking.

“We also recognise the ongoing challenges with cash availability at ATMs, which disproportionately affect ordinary Nigerians,” Cardoso said. “To address this, we are conducting spot checks across deposit money banks, and we will impose penalties on underperforming institutions.”

The CBN governor announced measures to empower customers, starting December 1, 2024. “Customers are encouraged to report any difficulties with withdrawing cash from bank branches or ATMs directly to the CBN through designated phone numbers and email addresses for their respective states.

Guidelines will be distributed widely to raise public awareness. We will also urge full regulatory compliance by all stakeholders, including mobile money operators and POS agents, to promote digital transaction channels and improve service delivery.”

Cardoso reiterated that financial institutions engaging in malpractices or sabotage would face severe consequences.

“The CBN will continue to maintain a robust cash offering to meet the country’s needs, particularly during high-demand periods such as the festive season and year-end.”

On foreign exchange (FX) matters, Cardoso highlighted Nigeria’s missed opportunity for N6.2 trillion in potential revenue due to a less flexible FX regime.

“These funds could have significantly contributed to critical investments in education, healthcare, and infrastructure development,” he said.

The governor added that the apex bank is committed to rebuilding Nigeria’s economic resilience through targeted reforms. These include prioritising domestic refining capacity, promoting non-oil exports, and advancing technological innovations in the financial sector.


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CBN Governor Urges Nigerians to Stay and Rebuild Amid Economic Reforms

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Mr. Olayemi Cardoso,  Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has urged Nigerians to reconsider leaving the country, popularly referred to as “Japa.”

He assured that the CBN is working toward creating an economy where everyone and every business can thrive.

Cardoso made this appeal in his keynote address at the 59th annual Bankers Dinner organized by the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria (CIBN) in Lagos.

“It is not a good idea to Japa at this stage,” he said, providing two key reasons for his stance. “One, those who may decide they are going to do that, they will sell and get rid of their assets. You’ll be doing it for cheap. Predators, who are outside looking for bargains, will come and take it and pocket it, put it in their pocket and wait for the turnaround and sell it away.”

Cardoso emphasized the importance of collective effort in rebuilding Nigeria. “Number two, you want to be part of the solution. You want to be part of the solution, and this is time that we need all hands on them. There are opportunities in the market today, which I must say, from my experience over the past year and also for the past six months, a lot of interest from the outside in what is going on in Nigeria.”

He pointed out that international investors see potential in the Nigerian market and urged citizens to take advantage of these opportunities. “In taking positions in certain assets, they see the opportunity, and we, who are here, should be part of the solution for the better things which will come.”

Acknowledging the hardship brought on by current economic reforms, Cardoso stressed that these measures are designed to address today’s challenges while securing a brighter future. “We are building an economy where every individual, every business, and every community can thrive,” he said.

He further highlighted the importance of collaboration in achieving this vision. “This vision will not be achieved by one institution alone. It requires all of us — banks, regulators, businesses, and citizens — to work together with steadfast resolve.”


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