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Nigeria Under Spotlight as Oil Tumbles to 17 Year Low

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By Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM

Fears over Nigeria descending into a recession have intensified after US crude tested levels below $20 for the first time in more than 17 years.

The last few months have certainly not been kind to Oil which has depreciated over 65% since the start of 2020. With Oil expected to trend lower amid widespread lockdowns across the world and aggressive price war between OPEC & US Shale, this is nothing but bad news for emerging market energy producers like Nigeria. Given how over 90% of export earnings and more than 60% of government revenues are acquired from Oil sales, this nightmare development threatens to sabotage Nigeria’s fragile economic recovery. The negative impacts can already be seen on the Naira, 2020 budget and local stocks.

It does not end here. According to the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE). Foreign portfolio transactions now stand at a ratio of 73% outflows and 27% inflows. This suggests that international investors are somewhat hesitant to purchase Nigerian assets amid the unfavourable global and domestic conditions. The Central Bank of Nigeria has already depreciated the rate of FX sales to FPI’s to roughly N380 which could rekindle the interest of foreign portfolio investors in the country’s financial instrument. However, aggressive monetary policy and fiscal responses must be implemented to cushion the damage inflicted by the coronavirus outbreak which infected over 100 people in Nigeria. Such steps could stimulate appetite for foreign portfolio investments, however external developments will play a key role.

At this point, it will be difficult for Africa’s largest economy to mirror the GDP growth witnessed in 2019 with first-quarter GDP expected to paint a gloomy picture. The main risk event for the economy this week will be the Foreign Exchange Reserves data for March. Earlier in the year, CBN Governor Godwin Emefiele mentioned that if external reserves tumbled to between $30 billion and $25 billion, and oil price depreciated between $50 – $45, the CBN could consider floating the exchange rate and weakening the naira. This may become a reality sooner than initially anticipated.

 


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E-Financial

Africa Processed 49Bn Transactions in 2023 – SIIPS Report

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The SIIPS Report which offers valuable insights into the opportunities and challenges facing Africa’s digital payment systems has said that 2023 was a landmark year, with 49 billion transactions processed across the continent—the highest volume recorded to date.

Africa Processed 49Bn Transactions in 2023 – SIIPS Report

This staggering number underscores a broader trend: the shift towards digital, fast, and efficient payments is becoming a cornerstone of Africa’s economic growth.

The SIIPS Report 2024, launched in Accra on Thursday, showcases the remarkable growth of Instant Payment Systems (IPS) across Africa, emphasizing their role in advancing financial inclusion.

With 31 operational IPS in 26 countries and another 27 on the way, the report reveals a 37% growth in transaction volume over five years.

While digital payment adoption surges, barriers remain for vulnerable groups, especially women, who face security and fraud concerns.

Despite progress, no system has fully achieved inclusive access, affordability, or transparency.

The report emphasizes the need for collective efforts to expand IPS, particularly in rural areas, to ensure universal financial inclusion by 2030.

Supported by partners like the World Bank and UNECA, the SIIPS Report offers valuable insights into the opportunities and challenges facing Africa’s digital payment systems, calling for innovation and regulatory support to achieve seamless, cross-border payments across the continent.

More importantly, the total value transacted surged at a remarkable average annual growth rate of 39% from 2019 to 2023, reaching over $1 trillion last year.

Such figures highlight Africa’s increasing reliance on digital financial systems and indicate a seismic shift in how money moves.

 

 

 

 


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CBN Issues Scam Alert, Warns of Fake SWIFT Messages Linked to Transfer Claim

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has advised bank customers to be cautious about the use of fake SWIFT messages during foreign exchange (FX) remittances.

CBN Issues Scam Alert, Warns of Fake SWIFT Messages Linked to Transfer Claim

 

SWIFT messages are sent through the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication network to facilitate financial transactions between banks and financial institutions.

The CBN gave the warning in a statement signed by Hakama Sidi-Ali, acting director of corporate communications department, on Tuesday in Abuja.

The apex bank said it had been inundated with claims by some stakeholders about the conclusion of foreign currency transfer to their Nigeria bank accounts.

According to Sidi Ali, stakeholders like private entities, individuals, law firms, and government agencies complained that foreign currency funds allegedly transferred to them by foreign entities have yet to be credited to their accounts with Nigerian banks.

“In some instances, the claimants alleged that the funds were withheld by either the beneficiary bank in Nigeria or the CBN and requested assistance towards releasing the funds to them,” She said.

“The requests are usually supported with fake documents such as SWIFT MT103, SWIFT Ack copy, etc.

“It has become imperative to state that the SWIFT ack copy and SWIFT MT103 that these claimants usually attach as evidence of remittance to beneficiary banks in Nigeria are not reliable.”

Sidi Ali added that the SWIFT messages are always not traceable on the SWIFT platform and the funds are not received to enable their application to the beneficiary’s account.

“In a situation where a fund transfer beneficiary receiving bank claims non-receipt of funds remitted by the foreign entity, the standard practice is for the sending customer to contact the sending bank.

“The purpose for the sending bank to send a tracer to trace where the fund is hanging and recall it.

“For the avoidance of doubt, we wish to state emphatically that the CBN neither provides correspondent banking services for Nigerian banks in foreign payments nor maintains accounts for private business entities.

“Consequently, petitioners’ claim that the alleged expected inflows for onward credit into the accounts of private business entities are trapped in the CBN is not only spurious but deceitful.”

The CBN spokesperson urged the general public to be careful with such unauthentic SWIFT messages and documents containing spurious claims of non-application of substantial foreign currency funds allegedly transferred into the beneficiary’s account.

She also warned that the CBN would not hesitate to report any bank customer making unsubstantiated and illegitimate claims to law enforcement agencies for investigation and prosecution.

 

 

 

 


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FG to Establish National Youth Development Bank to Support Young Nigerians

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Federal Government is to establish a National Youth Development Bank and a Youth Data Bank, according to President Bola Tinubu.

FG to Establish National Youth Development Bank to Support Young Nigerians

President Bola Tinubu, represented by Kashim Shettima, his vice, , disclosed this at a Stakeholders Roundtable on Northern Youth Development organised by the Sir Ahmadu Bello Memorial Foundation, in Abuja.

The President described the banks as crucial tools for “providing financial and informational support to young Nigerians.”

He said since assumption of office, his administration unveiled a comprehensive youth development strategy spanning multiple key sectors to drive Nigeria’s economic transformation.

Tinubu extolled the legacy of the late Sardauna of Sokoto and former Premier of Northern Nigeria, Ahmadu Bello

” The late Sir Ahmadu Bello, the Sardauna of Sokoto, was one of the towering giants on whose shoulders we have ascended as a nation.

” His vision was clear: the North cannot progress in isolation, and Nigeria cannot prosper unless every part of this nation thrives,” he said.

Tinubu declared that the development of Northern Nigeria remains fundamental to the nation’s prosperity.

According to him, “whatever disrupts the growth of one region sets back the entire nation.

“For far too long, we have been taunted as a nation with the most children out of school—a reality that should not elicit pride but provoke urgent action.

“This alarming statistic has turned the promise of our population into a challenge rather than the dividend it ought to be,” he added.

 

 

 


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