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Nigeria Week Ahead: ECB Meeting, US Jobs Report and Oil in Focus

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By Lukman Otunuga, FXTM Research Analyst,

It will be another busy week for financial markets as investors grapple with trade tensions, Brexit, depressed oil prices and concerns over slowing global growth.

The week kicks off with the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for May which is projected to hit 53.0. Appetite for the Dollar is likely to take another hit if the PMI figures fail to meet market expectations. Investors will be paying very close attention to Fed Chair Powell’s speech on Tuesday for fresh insight into the Fed’s monetary policy path.  Investors will be paying very close attention towards Powell’s tone, given how concerns are rising over trade tensions potentially impacting the US economy. The biggest event risks this week will be the European Central Bank meeting and US jobs report on Friday. The Dollar could end up depreciating further if the US jobs report disappoints and fuels speculation over the Fed cutting interest rates this year. Naturally, this will be good news for emerging market currencies with the Naira falling into the category.

The economic calendar for Nigeria will be relatively light this week with the Stanbic IBTC Bank PMI scheduled for release on Thursday. Although the economic docket is light, external factors in the form of trade tensions, the Dollar and most importantly oil prices will impact sentiment towards the nation.

Falling oil prices are set to place the Nigerian economy in a difficult position. It is widely known that Nigeria relies heavily on crude oil exports which account for over 90% of exports earnings and over 70% of government revenues. A sharp decline in oil prices could threaten Nigeria’s economic recovery while disrupting exchange rate stability. The potential decline in foreign exchange reserves from lower oil is likely to weaken the Naira consequently translating to rising inflationary pressures. Consumers and businesses will feel the pain as inflationary pressures mount, while the drop in foreign reserves may complicate the Central Bank of Nigeria’s efforts to defend the Naira. For Nigeria to insulate itself against such external risks, there needs to be a greater push on diversifying away from oil reliance to other sustainable sources of economic growth with Agriculture being one of several solutions.

Elsewhere, Gold is glittering as geopolitical risk factors and concerns over slowing global growth accelerate the flight to safety. This precious metal has turned bullish on the daily timeframe as is positioned to push higher should $1300 prove to be reliable support. A vulnerable Dollar should inject bulls with enough inspiration to push Gold towards $1324 in the short to medium term.


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E-Financial

FG Asks Banks to Report Individuals with N25m Monthly Transactions to FIRS

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Federal government has mandated banks and financial institutions to begin reporting monthly transactions exceeding N25 million for individuals and N100 million for firms to the tax authorities.

FG Asks Banks to Report Individuals with N25m Monthly Transactions to FIRS

Under the new provisions of the Nigerian Tax Act, financial institutions are required to submit quarterly returns to the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS).

The agency will be renamed to the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS) from January 2026, when the new tax system will take effect.

“Every person who has an obligation to deduct and remit tax under this Act or any other Returns for tax legislation shall render monthly returns to the appropriate tax authority, as specified deduction of tax in the regulation issued for that purpose,” the Act reads.

“Without prejudice to section 142 of this Act, every bank, insurance company, stock-broking firm, or any other financial institution, shall prepare, with or without demand be delivered by the relevant tax authority, quarterly returns to the relevant tax authority specifying the names and addresses of new customers;Nigerian fashion trends

“…and existing customers in the case of (i) an individual, all transactions where the cumulative transactions in a month amount to N25,000,000 or more, or (ii) a body corporate, all transactions where the cumulative transactions in a month amount to N100,000,000 or more.”

Prior to the new tax law, banks were mandated to report deposits of N5 million — a measure intended to curb illicit financial flows, according to  TheCable

Experts said the shift is part of efforts to tighten anti-money laundering reporting in the financial sector.

In 2023, Nigeria was listed on the grey list by the  Financial Action Task Force (FATF) over deficiencies in tackling money laundering and terrorism financing.

Since then, the country has been making efforts to exit the grey list, which subjects it to increased monitoring by the FATF.

In November 2024, Hafsat Bakari,  chief executive officer (CEO) of the Nigerian Financial Intelligence Unit (NFIU), said Nigeria has achieved upgrades in five key recommendations from the FATF.


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NIBSS: Active Bank Accounts in Nigeria Hit 320m

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Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System (NIBS) has revealed that the number of active bank accounts in the country increased to 320 million in the first quarter of 2025.

NIBSS: Active Bank Accounts in Nigeria Hit 320m

NIBSS also announced that the country’s cashless transactions rose to N295 trillion in the that quarter, up from N237.11 trillion in the corresponding quarter of 2024.

NIBSS disclosed this in its latest report on the country’s financial sector.

According to the data, the report highlighted the growing reliance on digital payments nationwide.

Details from the report showed that electronic payment channels were used 2.21 billion times in Q1, while point-of-sale, PoS terminals recorded 776.94 million transactions.

The NIBSS report corroborates ACI Worldwide data, which indicated that the volume of Nigeria’s real-time payment transactions will reach 19.7 billion by 2028, up from 7.9 billion in 2023.

“In Nigeria, real-time payments are quickly becoming a viable alternative to cash, historically the dominant choice for payments in the country,” ACI said.


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Edun, Finance Minister Inaugurates NDIC New Management

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Mr Wale Edun, minister of Finance and coordinating minister of the Economy,  has inaugurated Mr Thompson Oludare Sunday, new managing director/chief executive officer of the Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC), and Dr Kabir Sabo Katata, executive director (Operations),  at the Ministry of Finance, Abuja.

Mr Wale Edun, minister of Finance and coordinating minister of the Economy, flanked by Mr Thompson Oludare Sunday, new managing director/chief executive officer of the Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC), and Dr Kabir Sabo Katata, executive director (Operations),

In his speech during the occasion, the Minister submitted that the NDIC, as a component of the financial safety-net has a crucial role to play in the nation’s march to economic stability and prosperity.

He therefore charged the Management team to bring their diverse wealth of experience to bear on their new assignment while assuring them of the ministry’s full support in the task ahead.

Responding, Mr Sunday who spoke on behalf of the Management team, expressed appreciation to His Excellency, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for their appointment.

He assured the Hon Minister of the readiness of the Management under his leadership to live up to expectations of the President in particular and the nation in general in the discharge of their duties.

The Management  later received by the Corporation’s Head Office with a warm welcome by the workforce.

A statement signed by Hawwau Gambo, head, Communication & Public Affairs Department, revealed that Addressing the workers on behalf the Management team, Mr. Sunday promised to work in harmony with the staff to move the Corporation to its next level performance.

He stressed that the Management’s focus would be based on the public policy objectives, functions and mandate devolved on the Corporation by the enabling law that established it.

Thompson Oludare Sunday is a seasoned financial expert with over 30 years of regulatory and supervisory experience.

Having cut his teeth with the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in 1989, he went ahead to acquire high-end knowledge in Central Banking, spending 24 unbroken years in banking supervision.

While his vast experience is in the regulation and supervision of licensed institutions, his deep expertise span corporate governance, risk management and compliance as veritable tool for ensuring the safety and soundness of institutions.

He is a highly analytical and cross functional team worker with strong interest in building individual and institutional capacity for transformation and excellence.

Thompson’s skills and experience were horned by several key responsibilities and special assignments he handled for the apex Bank before his retirement as a Director 2021.

Kabir Sabo Katata, ED (Operations),  is a quantitative energy strategist and computational finance expert with strong power trading and risk management experience.

He has over twenty-eight years’ experience in the design and management of technically innovative systems in multiple industries including telecommunications, IT, energy (petroleum & power), finance and government.

He is a specialist in sophisticated financial optimization, the application of modern statistical techniques and mathematics to energy, deposit insurance and banking sectors.

Dr. Katata joined the service of the Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation in 2012 as an Assistant Director in the Research, Policy and International Relations Department and rose to the pinnacle of his career as Director in January 2022, before his new appointment as Executive Director (Operations).

 

 


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