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Nigeria Week Ahead: Naira, PMI’s and Inflation in Focus

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By Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM

The past few weeks have not been kind to the Naira.

Foreign exchange shortages, rising inflation, and lower oil prices offered nothing but pain to the emerging market currency. Losses were accelerated by demand for foreign exchange currency’s outweighing any additional inflows from exporters. According to Bloomberg, the Naira spot rate is down over 4% against the dollar today, trading around N393.33 while on the parallel markets, the Naira has weakened to N480.

Given the list of negative themes threatening to sabotage Nigeria’s economic recovery, the outlook for the Naira remains clouded by uncertainty. According to Bloomberg estimates, prices are seen falling as much as 10% in 2021. Although authorities have threatened to halt the banking services of exporters in an effort to boost supplies of foreign exchange, the local currency remains under the mercy of multiple exchange rates and untamed inflation. The latest rise in the country’s short-term debt and a weaker Naira rate to sell Dollars to investors are likely to raise expectations around another devaluation, marking the third one in less than 12 months.

On the data front, all eyes will be on the manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI figures for January. The Central Bank of Nigeria composite PMI for the manufacturing sector edged down to 49.6 in December of 2020 with markets forecasting a slight dip in January. For the non-manufacturing, the PMI is seen decreasing to 45.0 after hitting 45.7 in December. While these economic reports are significant and may offer insight into the health of Africa’s largest economy, all eyes will be on the OPEC monthly report and latest inflation figures.

Oil prices hit $60 per barrel this morning, levels not seen since February 2020. The commodity is deriving strength from renewed US fiscal hopes and optimism around global economic growth stimulating demand. The OPEC monthly report on Thursday could provide fresh insight into oils outlook, especially If the report signals a faster recovery in global demand. Given how a handsome chunk of Nigeria’s foreign exchange earnings and government revenues are sourced from oil sales, such an outcome may boost investor sentiment towards the country.

Let’s not forget about inflation. Inflationary pressures remain a thorn in the Central Bank of Nigeria’s side. In fact, untamed inflation has forced the central bank to leave interest rates unchanged at 11.5%. Consumer prices soared for a 16th straight month to 15.75% in December of 2020 – its highest rate since November 2017. Although the country’s borders have been re-opened to trade, inflation is still forecast to surpass 16% in January 2021.

Outside of Nigeria, it will be another busy week for global markets with earnings from the likes of Twitter, Uber & Disney, economic data from major economies and speeches by financial heavyweights in focus.


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Afreximbank and Ecobank Join Forces to Boost Trade and Compliance Across Africa

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African Export-Import Bank and Ecobank Group have embarked on a collaboration aimed at simplifying trade and compliance for businesses in Africa by integrating Ecobank’s Single Market Trade Hub and Afreximbank’s MANSA Digital Repository Platform.

With the collaboration, African businesses will benefit from seamless shared services across the two platforms, with users of the Single Market Trade Hub able to easily leverage MANSA’s comprehensive database for efficient know-thy-customer (KYC) and customer due diligence (CDD) checks while MANSA platform users would, in turn, be able to directly connect to the Single Market Trade Hub to explore trade opportunities to expand their businesses across Africa.

The Ecobank Single Market Trade Hub connects registered businesses across Africa on a single platform, helping them benefit from opportunities in the unified market of 1.4 billion people created by the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA).

It serves as a one-stop repository for the AfCFTA by providing small and medium-scale enterprises (SMEs) and corporates with insights about the agreement while its online match-making feature enables importers and exporters to upload their profiles and showcase goods and services they offer, or wish to source, with the aim of finding partners within Africa.

Once a match is found, connections are made via the platform and the transaction can be concluded leveraging on Ecobank’s trade and payment solutions in 35 African markets.

The MANSA Digital Repository Platform, or MANSA, is a one-stop-shop for due diligence matters on all African entities. As a centralised digital repository, MANSA seeks to eliminate information asymmetry and to increase intra-African trade and trade with the rest of the world.

It drives and promotes good governance culture among African SMEs and creates visibility for their businesses while also supporting African entities to expand, diversify and add value to their export products at both the local and international levels. Entities onboarded unto MANSA are allotted an Africa Entity Identifier (AEI) code which enables them to leverage other Afreximbank products and initiatives.

MANSA is also a key digital solution at the Africa Trade Gateway (ATG) marketplace which houses a suite of digital platforms designed as a single window to enable Afreximbank better deliver on its mandate, providing critical services to support and promote intra-African trade and the implementation of the AfCFTA. The platform enables African entities to accelerate their business activities at the ATG marketplace by working with verified information on trusted counterparties.

The new collaboration is, therefore, enabling Ecobank and Afreximbank to provide a central solution to the key challenge of KYC compliance and access to business across 35 countries in Africa. The improved interoperability is expected to further streamline cross-border trade and compliance in Africa, fostering greater financial and economic integration on the continent.

Afreximbank is a pan-African multilateral financial institution established to finance and promote intra- and extra-African trade.

Ecobank Group is a leading private pan-African banking group with unrivalled African expertise.


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Leadway Assurance Pledges Transformative Role to SMEs

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Leadway Assurance said it has chosen to go beyond risk underwriting to play the role of transformative partner for Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) in the country.

The underwriting firm played this role by empowering SMEs with practical strategies on how to navigate risks inherent in Yuletide season.

Leadway recently organized a webinar session for SMEs titled, “Driving Increased Sales During the Festive Season.”

Speaking on the reason for the session, the underwriting firm said it realized that as momentum into the 2024 festive season continued, businesses, especially small and medium enterprises (SMEs), face paradoxical realities of increased sales opportunities and consequent cocktails of business risks.

It said recognising the fact that with consumer spending and holiday making increasing businesses for SMEs, there were the possibilities of risk from these spikes in commercial activities such as – theft, accidents, burglaries, fire outbreaks, frauds, and system failures.

Against this backdrop Leadway said it has reaffirmed its position as a transformative partner to SMEs by empowering businesses with practical strategies for navigating the complexities of the season.

“This aligns with the brand’s mission to deliver robust risk management and business solutions to bolster economic growth, Head of the Retail Division at Leadway, Umashime Oguzor-Doghro said.

As connected to insurance, Oguzor-Doghro said: “Insurance was often seen as a reactive tool, but at Leadway, we position it as a strategic asset. With our competitive risk management solutions—spanning property, transit, and employee coverage, we enable businesses to operate with confidence, knowing they are protected from the unforeseen.

What sets us apart is our free advisory service, which ensures businesses are fully equipped before they even take up our insurance products.” he added.

In addition to risk management, Oguzor- Doghro said the webinar championed collaboration as a catalyst for success, adding that Leadway’s partnerships with event managers and SME stakeholders aim to ensure seamless operations during the festive season, reinforcing the company’s role as more than just an insurer but a reliable business ally.


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Mastercard, MTN, and Arifu Launch Digital Skills Program for African Small Businesses

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Mastercard Center for Inclusive Growth, MTN Group Fintech and Arifu have partnered to support about one million small businesses in Cote’ D’Ivoire and Uganda, to digitize their operations, increase the use of digital financial services and access digital marketplaces through the MoMo Coach chatbot.

This program, part of the Center’s global Mastercard Strive initiative, aims to enhance the resilience and growth of small businesses by providing essential digital skills. It is one of the ways Mastercard Strive has disseminated chatbot-ready business building content for small businesses in the region, which is currently also available in Kenya and Nigeria.

Small businesses in sub-Saharan Africa, especially those impacted by the pandemic, have faced significant barriers in adopting digital tools. As of December 2022, only 27.65% of businesses in sub-Saharan Africa had adopted digital tools to enhance their efficiency, showing a slight improvement from 19.44% in August 2020. A lack of relevant skills continues to limit their growth and access to essential financial services. MoMo Coach addresses these gaps by providing free, accessible upskilling content via popular messaging platforms.

Supported by the Mastercard Center for Inclusive Growth and delivered by Caribou Digital, this program equips small businesses with digital skills, enabling them to adopt digital tools, access capital, and engage more effectively in digital marketplaces. The program aligns with Mastercard Strive’s broader goal of reaching 18 million small businesses around the world to go digital, get capital, and access networks and know-how.

“Small businesses are vital to Africa’s growth and create opportunities for a more resilient and inclusive regional economy. We are delighted to catalyze a partnership between MTN Group Fintech and Arifu to equip almost one million small business owners with the digital skills and knowledge essential for thriving in an increasingly digital economy, setting them up for success.” said Subhashini Chandran, Senior Vice President of Social Impact for Asia Pacific, Europe, Middle East and Africa

The MoMo Coach solution, powered by Arifu’s Grasp Platform, uses mobile messaging to deliver micro-learning experiences. It is accessible across multiple channels, including WhatsApp, Telegram, Facebook Messenger, SMS and MoMo. This gives small business owners and entrepreneurs flexibility in accessing practical, actionable tips to unlock growth opportunities in the digital economy.

Serigne Dioum, CEO of MTN Group Fintech, further adds: “Empowering small businesses with digital skills is key to driving inclusive growth in Africa. Through MoMo Coach, we are unlocking opportunities for entrepreneurs to thrive in the digital economy, strengthening communities, and shaping the future of business across the continent.”

The program has been rolled out in Côte d’Ivoire and Uganda, reaching over 930,000 MTN customers, merchants, and agents, with more than 75,000 small business owners accessing free digital courses and over 45,000 actively engaging with MoMo Coach. Courses offered include “How to Start Your Business,” “Money Management,” and “Grow and Secure Your Business.” These courses are based on insights derived from MoMo merchants and agents, and they address key challenges like affordability and access to relevant business knowledge—enabling small business owners to navigate the digital landscape.

Aminata, a 31-year-old business owner from Gôh-Djiboua, Côte d’Ivoire, is one of the many beneficiaries of MoMo Coach. Selling shoes and clothing since 2022, she says: “There’s a lot of competition, but MoMo Coach helps me sell better. Before, I used all my profits to buy new stock, which left me using my capital for expenses. Now, I split my profits: one part for business growth, another for expenses, and some savings for other projects.” She has also started using WhatsApp to increase her sales, noting: “My income has increased. When I post my goods, I sell more.”


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