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Nigeria’s Economic Growth Cools in Q1, Pound Rattled by Political Risk

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By Lukman Otunuga, FXTM Research Analyst,

Growth in the largest economy in Africa slowed to 2.01% during the first quarter of 2019, thanks to external risks and contraction in the Oil sector.

Although the non-Oil sector grew by 2.47%, the Oil sector, which remains the country’s biggest foreign exchange earner, shrank by 2.40%. While Nigeria remains on a quest to break away from the chains of Oil reliance, the nation remains exposed to external shocks and this was reflected in the latest GDP figures. Will the deceleration in growth momentum pressure the Central Bank of Nigeria to cut interest rates in an effort to jumpstart the economy? This is a question on the minds of many investors.

Sterling struggles to nurse wounds as political risk continues to bite

The return of domestic political turmoil in the United Kingdom has led to a flurry of selling momentum for the British Pound, which fell over 300 pips during the previous trading week.

The selling momentum  returned once again in the early hours of Monday morning and the news flow circulating around UK Prime Minister Theresa May needing to state her leaving date, coupled with Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn stating that Brexit discussions have broken down makes it doubtful for buyers to be tempted back into the GBPUSD.

Taking a look at the technical picture, the GBPUSD remains firmly bearish on both the daily and weekly charts. There have been consistently lower lows and lower highs while the MACD has crossed to the downside. The solid weekly close below 1.2820 has opened the doors towards 1.2700 and 1.2620 in the near term.

 

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Commodity spotlight – Gold

The past few days have certainly not been kind to Gold and this continues to be reflected in the bearish price action.

Signals over the direction of US-China trade talks have caused risk sentiment to swing back and forth, ultimately impacting the appetite for Gold. While Gold bulls are clearly losing the battle as prices trade towards $1274, the war still rages on.

The sentiment pendulum could easily swing in favour of bulls this week, if trade tensions intensify and concerns over slowing global growth accelerate the flight to safety. With Gold still supported by core themes in the form of a cautious Federal Reserve and speculation over a potential US rate cut in 2019, the precious metal remains shielded by downside shocks.

Looking at the technical picture, sustained weakness below $1280 is seen opening a path towards $1268 in the short-to-medium term.

 

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E-Financial

MoneyMaster Promotes Financial Inclusion, Offers more Bonus to Customers

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Julius Arhebun, the Head of Agency Banking a Nigeria’s leading payment service bank, MoneyMaster, has disclosed that the promotion of financial inclusion is one of the core mandates of the service.

He said this recently as the bank introduced a new 100MB data offer for every transaction made in the offer, which is available for Glo customers using the bank’s USSD banking code, *995#. The initiative is meant to incentivize the unbanked and underbanked population to ease the creation of their own mobile wallet via its USSD banking platform.

According to him, the offer builds on the various financial education “we have been providing online and across our various customer touchpoints”.

He added that “with this new 100MB offer, we want to encourage Nigerians in the unbanked and underbanked pools to be financially included by having at least a mobile wallet. The account number of this mobile wallet is derived from their mobile number, and can be easily recalled”.

MoneyMaster PSB is a leading provider of innovative digital financial products and services that transform lives and contribute to sustainable living.

The PSB has the   mission to deepen financial inclusion and has been instrumental in providing financial technology services to bridge the gap between the banked, underbanked and unbanked population.

The payment service bank recently unveiled a 10 percent data bonus for existing and new customers who are on the Glo network for recharges of N1000 or more. The offer has been adjudged one of the best in the country based on the volume of data on offer to customers. The data purchases have a 30-day validity while unused data can be rolled over upon next plan subscription.

 


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PenCom, PenOp to Integrate Uncovered Workers into Micro Pension Plan

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The National Pension Commission (PenCom) and the Pension Operators Association of Nigeria (PenOp) are taking steps to integrate workers who are not currently contributing to the Contributory Pension Scheme (CPS) into the Micro Pension Plan (MPP).

The initiative targets workers without any form of pension coverage, including those who have left previous employers under the CPS but wish to join the MPP.

The MPP is designed to allow self-employed individuals and those working in companies with fewer than three employees to contribute towards a pension for their retirement or in cases of incapacitation. Additionally, pension operators are developing incentives to make the MPP more appealing to potential contributors.

At the micro pension plan industry stakeholders’ engagement forum held in Lagos recently, organized by PenCom and PenOp, the Acting Director-General of PenCom, Omolola Oloworaran, highlighted the critical role of the MPP.

She said the event’s theme: “Reimagining Micro Pension Plan: Balancing Service, Policy, and Health” accurately captures the essence of the MPP as a transformative tool for improving the lives of Nigerians.

To maximise the impact of the MPP, PenCom is embarking on several initiatives like market segmentation, rebranding, advanced technology, incentives and others.

Oloworaran pointed out that with over 77.5 million workers in Nigeria’s informal sector, even a small increase in MPP participation could unlock billions of naira in savings, positively impacting individuals and the wider economy.

In his presentation on the “Overview of the Micro Pension Plan,” Babatunde Alayande, head of the micro pensions department at PenCom, emphasised the importance of providing incentives to make the MPP more attractive and accessible to its target market.

Okhueleigbe John, head of the micro pension unit at Stanbic IBTC Pension, stressed the need for tailored policies to promote the growth of the MPP. He also advocated more financial literacy, public-private partnerships, and innovative funding strategies to drive incentives for the scheme. Additionally, he called for a review of the pricing structure of micro pensions to make them more appealing to investors.

Dr. Shem Ouma of Kenya APSA also provided valuable insights, recommending that operators incorporate built-in benefits, ensure flexible payment systems for contributors, and leverage technology to drive the MPP forward.


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Foreign Transactions on NGX Hit N744.34bn in 10 Months, Up 156% YoY

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NGX has seen a record foreign investor transaction activity, with a 156% YoY increase reaching N744.34. Foreign investors’ transactions on the Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX) reached a total of N744.34 billion in the first 10 months of 2024, which was an increase by 156 percent Year-on-Year (YoY) when compared to the N291.38 billion recorded in the first 10 months of 2023.

The N744.34 billion foreign investors’ transactions recorded was another all-time high for the Nigerian bourse.

The latest NGX’s “Domestic & Foreign Portfolio Participation in Equity Trading,” for October 2024, revealed that foreign investors contributed about 16.65 percent out of the total transactions of N4.47 trillion reported in the 10 months under review.

The report revealed that foreign investors’ inflow and outflow stood at N344.30 billion and N400.04 billion, respectively.

The CBN recently implemented some reforms in the foreign exchange market aimed at enhancing transparency, compliance, and market stability. These reforms were part of the CBN’s broader strategy to create a fairer, more stable FX market and support economic growth through better monetary policies.

In tandem with these reforms, the CBN has also implemented aggressive Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) hikes, with the goal of curbing inflation and stabilising the naira, a move supported by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Domestic investors made up of retail and institutional investors transacted an estimated N3,726.63 trillion worth of stocks in the period under review.

The breakdown showed that domestic retail in 10 months of 2024 transacted N1.909.99 trillion as against N935.78 billion recorded in 10 months of 2023, while domestic institutional transacted N1.816.64trillion in 10 months of 2024 from N1.706.23 trillion in 10 months of 2023.

According to the report, the total transactions at the nation’s bourse increased marginally by 1.97percent from N493.01 billion (about $307.84 million) in September 2024, to N502.73 billion (about $300.05 million) in October6 2024.

“The performance of the current month when compared to the performance in October 2023 (N220.94 billion) revealed that total transactions significantly increased by 127.54per cent.

“In October 2024, the total value of transactions executed by Domestic Investors outperformed transactions executed by Foreign Investors by circa 82 per cent,” the report stated.

“A further analysis of the total transactions executed between the current and prior month (September 2024) revealed that total domestic transactions increased by 0.81per cent from N451.60 billion in September 2024 to N455.27 billion in October 2024.

“Similarly, total foreign transactions increased by 14.61 percent from N41.41 billion (about $25.86 million) to N47.46 billion (about $28.33 million) between September 2024 and October 2024.”


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