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Nigeria’s Economy Still Tied to Oil’s Fortunes

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By Lukman Otunuga

 

The Nigerian economy was exposed to an array of risk factors during H2 ranging from severely depressed Oil prices, falling external reserves, geopolitical tensions, and prospects of higher US interest rates.

 

With economic growth staging a fragile rebound and heavy hitters such as the IMF even downgrading growth forecasts from 2.1% to 1.9%, some may feel Nigeria’s growth prospects remain quite discouraging. Recent reports from the World Bank predicting growth to hover slightly below 2% due to an underinvestment in human capital is likely to rub salt into the wound. With the recent decline in Oil prices negatively impacting government revenues and possible complications to properly enact the 2019 budget, all signs point to tough times ahead.

 

However, the fact that Nigeria remains on the path to diversifying away from Oil reliance suggests there is still some light at the end of this dark tunnel. It must be kept in mind that the largest economy in Africa has all the required ingredients needed to positively surprise global markets in the coming years. With a population of near 200 million, a youthful workforce and an incredible abundance of natural resources that seem to be underexploited, agricultural development may be the medicine to Nigeria’s illness. If the nation is able to elevate the agriculture sector to a respectable point of self-sufficiency, this will be the first step in creating a stable and sustainable macroeconomic environment.  This is part of the government’s increased efforts to develop infrastructure to stimulate growth further.

 

The presidential elections in February will certainly be a double-edged sword for the Nigerian economy. Economic growth has the potential to expand next year thanks to increased government spending ahead of the elections. However, increased spending will inevitably rekindle inflationary pressures ultimately forcing the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to re-evaluate its monetary policy stance. While speculations were initially rife over the CBN cutting interest rates in an effort to support growth, rising interest rates in the United States and Dollar strength resulted in the CBN missing the window of opportunity. With the new minimum wage in Nigeria likely to stoke inflationary pressures and falling Oil prices weighing on the Naira’s peg against the Dollar, higher interest rates may be enforced to maintain reserves.

 

Focusing on foreign exchange, the Naira’s stability against the Dollar remains the product of repeated intervention by the CBN. Higher Oil prices during the third trading quarter helped the CBN defend the Naira against an appreciating Dollar. With market conditions changing drastically and Oil weakness currently a dominant market theme, the CBN may face difficulties supporting the Naira.

 

As we head into the final trading month of 2018, the outlook for the Nigerian economy is poised to remain heavily influenced by Oil prices, the Dollar, global trade developments and pre-election jitters. Although consumer prices in Nigeria eased in October to 11.26%, government spending, and the new minimum wage are seen rekindling inflationary pressures. With the Fed expected to raise interest rates in December, Nigeria is at risk of experiencing capital outflows. Oil prices remain gripped by concerns over excessive supply in the markets and fears of falling demand – themes that may translate to falling government revenues and vulnerable Naira exchange.

 

Investors will be keeping a very close eye on the pending GDP report for Q3 which should provide fresh insight into the health of the largest economy in Africa. Sentiment towards the nation could end the year on a positive note if economic growth during the third trading quarter meets or exceeds expectations.

 


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Verra Certifies d.light’s Clean Cookstove Projects in Sub-Saharan Africa

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A series of pioneering projects by d.light, the global provider of transformational household products and affordable finance for low-income households, to distribute 600,000 energy-efficient clean cookstoves in Kenya, Nigeria, and Uganda have been officially certified by global verification body Verra.

This certification confirms the d.light projects as trusted, verified sources of high-quality carbon credits in the voluntary carbon markets (VCMs).

The d.light projects aim to simultaneously reduce carbon emissions, tackle indoor air pollution, and reduce deforestation through the sale of highly efficient biomass cookstoves subsidized by the revenues from the sale of carbon credits.

Since their launch in late 2022, the projects have positively impacted more than one million lives and are projected to transform more than three million lives by 2025.

Commenting on the news, Karl Skare, d.light’s Chief Product and Strategy Officer, emphasized the projects’ positive impact, “With these projects, we’re not just addressing environmental concerns but also enhancing quality of life for millions.

“Each project underscores d.light’s commitment to practical, innovative solutions that address both environmental and social challenges, as part of our mission to transform the lives of one billion people by 2030.”

Each year, domestic cooking emissions contribute more than two percent of total global GHG emissions and up to 25 percent of anthropogenic black carbon emissions.

Highly energy-efficient cookstoves solve this problem by reducing biomass use by up to 70 percent compared to traditional cooking methods, cutting emissions of both carbon dioxide and black carbon.

The d.light projects are expected to reduce emissions by up to 12 million tons, contributing to climate change mitigation. These emissions reductions will be registered as carbon credits in the voluntary carbon market.

As well as reducing emissions, clean cookstoves are also a benefit to public health. According to the World Health Organisation, exposure to smoke from cooking fires causes an estimated 3.2 million premature deaths worldwide each year and is still one of the predominant causes of pollution-related illness and death in Africa.

In Uganda, for example, less than one percent of the population has access to clean cooking, household air pollution is the one of the largest risk factors for death and disability.

In addition, switching from traditional three-stone open fires to cleaner, energy-efficient cookstoves significantly reduces deforestation and reduces threats to wildlife and biodiversity caused by habitat loss.

Skare explained, “By subsidizing energy-efficient cookstove costs through carbon financing, d.light makes clean cooking accessible to more households, which in turn leads to healthier living conditions and conserves natural resources as well.

“Our projects in Kenya, Nigeria and Uganda are models of how sustainable investments can yield multiple co-benefits, aligning with global efforts to combat climate change and also promoting socio-economic development.

Skare added, “d.light now has projects certified by both Gold Standard and Verra, the world’s two leading certifiers of carbon credits. Organizations looking for ways to offset their own emissions can be confident that when they purchase carbon credits in d.light’s clean cooking projects in sub-Saharan Africa, they are investing in transformative initiatives that reduce harmful emissions, improve people’s health and quality of life, and help conserve the environment as well.”

 


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Remedial Health Unveils New App with Digital POS to power operations for Africa’s Neighbourhood Pharmacies

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Remedial Health, a health tech startup that develops solutions to make Africa’s pharmaceutical value chain more efficient has unveiled an updated version of its customer-facing app, designed to function as an operating system for neighbourhood pharmacies and Proprietary Patent Medicine Vendors (PPMVs) across the continent.

The new app comes with a digital POS terminal to support payment collection, virtual business accounts to receive payments, an in-built barcode scanner feature for recording product sales and store-switch functionality to enable the seamless management of multiple stores, as well as inventory management solutions for restocking and easily identifying short-dated products.

The app also offers comprehensive financial reporting to manage profit and loss, and data analytics to inform decision making.

Despite accounting for 85 per cent of retail medicines sold in Africa’s pharmaceutical industry (projected to reach $70 billion market size by 2030), the absence of bespoke digital tools to manage their unique sales and inventory management needs means neighbourhood pharmacies and Proprietary patent Medicine Vendors (PPMVs) are unable to run their operations as effectively and profitably as possible.

At the same time, the reliance on paper-based inventory and sales management processes means manufacturers have limited empirical insights into customer behaviour to inform their decisions on production and distribution.

The new Remedial Health app has been designed specifically for healthcare businesses in Africa, with tailored features that have been designed to support effective decision making to drive business growth and profitability.

Starting in Nigeria, healthcare businesses can access vetted medicines, and manage their sales and inventory on one easy-to-use platform, freeing up time and capacity to effectively serve their customers and communities.

The app also enables Remedial Health to provide consolidated, real-time data on market behaviour to manufacturers for increased profitability and better decision-making across the value chain.

According to Samuel Okwuada, CEO, and co-founder of Remedial Health, “Neighbourhood pharmacies and PPMVs represent the frontline of healthcare delivery in Africa but they have historically been left to their own devices to figure out how to be efficient and profitable.

“Our mission is to empower these essential service providers with the tools they need to manage day-to-day operations and seamlessly run their practices effectively. We spent a lot of time interacting with our customers in the process of delivering this product and the feedback has been great.

“We are excited by the opportunity to get the app into the hands of pharmacies and PPMVs across the country to support their ongoing success, as well as the health and wellbeing of the nation”.

In 2023, Remedial Health sold more than 300 million individual packs of medicines to 7,500 hospitals, neighbourhood pharmacies and PPMVs across all 36 states of Nigeria.

Its customers also improved their profits by 30 per cent on average, with access to more than 8,000 vetted products at the same, or better than, open-air medicine market prices.

They can also access same-day delivery and leverage inventory financing to minimise cash-flow friction for routine orders and maximise sales opportunities.


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EnterpriseNGR Expands Financial Centres to Three African Countries

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EnterpriseNGR has signed a Memorandum of Understanding to set up the Africa Roundtable of Financial Centres – a chapter of the World Alliance of International Financial Centres, in Mauritius, Morocco and Rwanda.

The MoU, signed recently in Mauritius, brought together EnterpriseNGR, the Economic Development Board of Mauritius, Casablanca Finance City Authority, and Rwanda Finance Limited to foster collaboration, promote investment opportunities, and drive sustainable development within the financial centres of its member countries and Africa at large.ort the exchange of best practices between members, enhance visibility regionally

A statement from EnterpriseNGR said that it was joining forces with the three countries to specifically pursue five key objectives.

These objectives include “Jointly strengthen the competitiveness of financial centres in Africa. Collaborate through projects, research papers, communiques, and events to position the African Continent, demonstrate the myriad of investment opportunities, and showcase the role that financial centres play within the African Continent.

“Conduct joint initiatives to supp and internationally, and provide African financial centres with a unified voice regionally and internationally.

“Facilitate the development of dialogue with major financial centres outside the African Continent and build communication channels with African institutions, including regulators and policymakers, as well as African financial services industry associations, and advocate for regulatory coordination amongst members of the Africa Roundtable to promote cross-border investments and financial services.”

Commenting on this collaboration, the Chairperson of the Africa Roundtable, Mr Ken Poonoosamy, said, “The signing of the Memorandum of Understanding for the Africa Roundtable of the WAIFC represents a pivotal stride in fostering synergy among financial hubs within the African sphere, with the shared objective of catalysing economic advancement across the continent.”

Ms Obi Ibekwe, the Chief Executive Officer of EnterpriseNGR, represented by the Director of Policy & Public Affairs, Mr Lami Adekola, expressed her excitement over the development.

She said, “It is a historic achievement, and EnterpriseNGR fully endorses the Africa Roundtable of the WAIFC and is excited for the immense opportunities it represents for Nigeria and the African continent. Our collaboration with the four African countries promises to bolster financial competitiveness on the Continent and amplify Africa’s global presence.

We will leverage this Roundtable to unlock the full potential of African financial centres to drive prosperity and development for our nations and beyond.”

EnterpriseNGR became a member of WAIFC in 2023 during the WAIFC board meeting hosted by TheCityUK in London.

The MoU, which was signed recently in Mauritius, brought together EnterpriseNGR, the Economic Development Board of Mauritius, Casablanca Finance City Authority, and Rwanda Finance Limited, to foster collaboration, promote investment opportunities, and drive sustainable development within the financial centres of its member countries.

A statement from EnterpriseNGR said that it was joining forces with the three countries to pursue five key objectives.

According to the group, these objectives include “jointly strengthen the competitiveness of financial centres in Africa. Collaborate through projects, research papers, communiques, and events to position the African continent, demonstrate the myriad of investment opportunities, and showcase the role that financial centres play within the African continent”.

It added that it would enable it to “Conduct joint initiatives to support the exchange of best practices between members, enhance visibility regionally and internationally, and to provide African financial centres with a unified voice regionally and internationally.

Facilitate the development of dialogue with major financial centres outside the African Continent and build communication channels with African institutions, including regulators and policymakers, as well as African financial services industry associations, and advocate for regulatory coordination amongst members of the Africa Roundtable to promote cross-border investments and financial services”.

Commenting on the collaboration, the Chairperson of the Africa Roundtable, Mr Ken Poonoosamy, asserted, “The signing of the Memorandum of Understanding for the Africa Roundtable of the WAIFC represents a pivotal stride in fostering synergy among financial hubs within the African sphere, with the shared objective of catalysing economic advancement across the continent.”

Ms Obi Ibekwe, the Chief Executive Officer of EnterpriseNGR, represented by the Director of Policy & Public Affairs, Mr Lami Adekola, expressed her excitement over the development.

She stated, “It is a historic achievement, and EnterpriseNGR fully endorses the Africa Roundtable of the WAIFC and is excited for the immense opportunities it represents for Nigeria and the African continent.

“Our collaboration with the four African countries promises to bolster financial competitiveness on the Continent and amplify Africa’s global presence. We will leverage this Roundtable to unlock the full potential of African financial centres to drive prosperity and development for our nations and beyond.”


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