General News
Q2 outlook for Oil & What it means for the Nigerian Economy
Q2 Outlook – WTI Oil: Near 30% rally in Oil so far this year unjustifiable
The near 30% rally in WTI Oil during the first quarter of 2019 is difficult to justify when taking into account the progressive concerns that are mounting regarding a global economic downturn. The rally has been supported by improved market confidence that efforts from OPEC+ have tightened the supply in the market, but whether this encouraging sentiment can continue would likely depend on whether Russia continues to support production cuts.
As such, a result to an unprecedented 30% rally over the last quarter, the commodity is going to enter the new quarter as a prime contender to suffer from a market correction. The probability is high that fears over a deceleration in world economic momentum will only get louder as the year progresses, meaning Oil investors will need to re-assess into expectations what impact a global slowdown will have on future demand. A plethora of evidence through data releases from different economies across the globe has already pointed out that a downturn in growth is impending – if the slowdown hasn’t already arrived.
Market perception is that OPEC cuts are working but demand outlook at risk
One of the major risks for the price of Oil in the second quarter is the increased probability that world economic forecasts for 2019 will be revised lower. While a great volume of noise in the Oil atmosphere is created around headlines involving production, OPEC or even more recently OPEC+, it often gets underlooked just how important Oil demand is for its valuation. Reduced demand is a negative for Oil price and the prospect of further lower demand on global economic health fears will risk re-igniting oversupply concerns that have dominated headlines since the spectacular price crash first occurred in 2014, despite repeated measures and attempts by OPEC and co to rebalance the market.
Iran waivers a wildcard, Saudi Arabia to remain committed to output cuts
If you were to take the contrarian view, there are a few reasons to remain optimistic that Oil can resume its price rebound in Q2. This would however, include some unpredictable risk elements around politics for a commodity that has historically behaved with an extreme level of sensitivity to politics.
Waivers on Iranian sanctions are set to expire over the coming months and if President Trump adopts a hardline approach that results in the taps for Iranian Oil supply being turned off, the subsequent change in the production outlook would prove tempting for potential buyers. Venezuela is another market that has come under the threat of sanctions following recent domestic unrest, while suspicions remain that Saudi Arabia will maintain its underlying commitment towards tightening the available supply of Oil to achieve stronger valuations to help the Kingdom achieve its fiscal targets.
Do not underestimate risk Trump speaking against Oil rally will have on future outlook
Another factor that needs to be taken into account when factoring in potential risks that can swing the hammer of the Oil price in either direction is President Trump.
The President of the United States has made it perfectly clear on numerous occasions that his desire is for Oil prices to return to lower levels for a prolonged period. He has already commented via social media feeds that the Oil price is too high and while he might not be President of a nation that is either a traditional member of OPEC nor OPEC+, he carries the ability to influence world financial markets. When it comes to President Trump’s influence on financial markets it is never an occasion that investors can prepare for when it will happen, but Trump has proven in office that he has a tendency of getting his way in the end, and I would personally not want to be on the wrong side of the trade when the President of the United States is demanding for lower Oil valuations.
What does this all mean for the Nigerian economy?
Although Nigeria remains on a quest to diversify away from Oil reliance, a handsome chunk of the nation’s export earnings is from Oil sales. While rising Oil prices will boost government revenues, provide foreign exchange stability and support economic growth, it leaves the country vulnerable to external shocks. With robust production from US Shale stimulating oversupply concerns and fears around slowing global growth potentially impacting demand, Oil’s upside seems limited. If Oil prices end up depreciating back below $60 in Q2, this will not only impact growth prospects but also Nigeria’s efforts to support its 2019 budget. The ramifications of such a development will most likely complicate the Central Bank of Nigeria’s efforts to cut rates further in an effort to boost economic growth. However, further signs of Nigeria breaking away from Oil reliance to other sustainable sources of growth such as agriculture have the potential to limit shocks created from Oil volatility.
WTI knocking on the door at $60, but is anyone home?
Focusing on the technical picture, WTI Crude has reached tough resistance on the monthly charts with $60 acting as a barrier for bulls preventing prices by being pushed higher. The $60 level ironically also reflects the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the October – December 2018 downtrend, which helps explain why we are noticing a trend of selling pressure jumping back in the market close to $60.
Until Oil is able to secure a decisive monthly close above $60, it looks like a ceiling is in place for Oil bulls and selling rallies below this level is going to remain as a tempting strategy for bearish investors. A weekly close below $56 will act as a signal for further downside with $52, $50 and $47.80 acting as key points of interest.
If prices are able to conquer $60, Oil has scope to challenge $65.
Ola Olukoyede, chairman, Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), has raised the alarm that some corrupt Nigerian politicians are now hiding their illicit wealth in cryptocurrencies to evade scrutiny and detection by anti-graft agencies.
Ola Olukoyede, chairman, EFCC
The EFCC boss said the agency had uncovered a growing trend where fraudulent public officials now used cryptocurrency wallets to stash stolen public funds and conduct illicit transactions.
Olukoyede made the revelation at an event commemorating Africa Anti-Corruption Day.
The event was held simultaneously in Abuja, Lagos and Ibadan, Oyo State.
Other speakers at the event lamented that Nigerians usually fell victim to crypto fraud, including the recent CBEX scam, where Nigerians lost over N1.3tn.
Olukoyede said, “Virtual asset fraud is on the rise. Our findings show that fraudulent politicians are already perfecting schemes and hiding their loot in cryptocurrencies to beat the investigative blackness of anti-corruption agencies.
“Stolen funds and unexplained wealth are being warehoused in wallets and payment for services are being done through this window,” he said.
Olukoyede warned that while the rise of virtual assets had transformed financial transactions globally, it had also created new avenues for money laundering and financial crimes.
He said, “Technology is moving at a supersonic speed around the world.
“The advent of virtual assets is a response to one of the qualities of money as a store of value like it is known in our elementary economies.”
“However, as with every progressive innovation, fraud starts to usually evolve, evolve ways of perverting their genuine purposes,” he said.
He added that the EFCC was not helpless in the face of the sophisticated schemes, noting that proactive training and intelligence sharing had enabled the commission to identify and investigate such cases.
Airtel Nigeria, telecommunications and digital solutions provider, has reemphasised its commitment to national development with a two-day workshop for companies in Nigeria’s Banking, Financial Services & Insurance (BFSI) and utility sectors.
Held from July 8 to 9, 2025 at the Lagos Continental, the exclusive event brought together C-suite executives and industry thought leaders to co-create transformative and tech-driven solutions for these critical industries.
Themed “Banking on Innovation: Powering Financial Services with Connectivity” on 1 and “Accelerating Nigeria’s Digital Leap: Smarter Networks, Smarter Business” on Day 2, the sessions were designed to identify critical pain points, unlock business potential, and drive smarter, more connected operations across two of the nation’s most essential sectors.
Delivering the keynote address, Dinesh Balsingh, Managing Director/CEO of Airtel Nigeria, reaffirmed Airtel’s dedication to enabling and driving Nigeria’s digital transformation across the finance and energy sectors.
Speaking on the timeliness of the workshop, Airtel Nigeria’s Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, Dinesh Balsingh said, “From power and water to finance, transportation, and logistics, this is a defining moment for every sector. The real question isn’t whether to adopt digital solutions, but how quickly and intelligently we can do so. At Airtel Nigeria, we’re moving beyond basic connectivity and becoming a true digital partner to the industries we serve.”
He highlighted Airtel’s categories of enterprise solutions that has been created to improve quality of life. These groupings include Internet of Things (IoT) for such services as smart metering, leak detection, energy optimisation, and real-time asset tracking; Communications Platform as a Service (CPaaS), which enables secure, multi-channel customer engagement via SMS, WhatsApp, Voice, and USSD; as well asl Network as a Service (NaaS), which delivers flexible, secure connectivity with cloud-ready agility.
Mr. Balsingh added that, “Nigeria’s power and energy industries are under growing pressure to modernise. Legacy infrastructure, fragmented systems, and lack of real-time visibility are major obstacles. Airtel is stepping in with the right tools, not just to connect, but to transform. With IoT, CPaaS, and NaaS, we’re laying the groundwork for smarter operations, improved service delivery, and better outcomes for businesses and consumers alike.”
Abhishek Biswal, Chief Business Officer, Digital Services at Airtel India, brought substantial insight to the discourse with a demonstration of Airtel’s IoT Hub and its transformative impact on energy distribution.
Biswal said, “The future of finance and energy is digital, and that future must be secure, scalable, and seamless. When financial players and utility providers partner with telcos like Airtel, we’re not just connecting systems; we’re building a smarter digital ecosystem for everyone.”
Reinforcing the CEO’s position, Ogo Ofomata, Director, Airtel Business, called for collaboration among the participating sector and their stakeholders.
“We don’t take lightly the trust you have put in us. Airtel operates in what we call the enabler industry. Sometimes we don’t even know there’s a problem until we come together like this. This workshop is about understanding your needs and working side by side to design solutions that truly fit,” she said.
In his remarks, Luc Serviant, Group Enterprise Business Director at Airtel Africa, highlighted the company’s role in driving digital transformation through sustained investments in 5G and LEO satellite connectivity, aimed at boosting remote operations and expanding access in underserved regions across the finance and energy sectors.
He said, “At Airtel, we understand that the future of is going digital, and reliable connectivity is the backbone of that future. From 5G to LEO satellite integration, we are investing in intelligent infrastructure that empowers service providers to operate more efficiently, respond in real-time, and deliver uninterrupted services to millions of Nigerians. This isn’t just about innovation; it’s about building the digital foundation that will power the nation’s next chapter.”
This workshop, which continues the series of sectoral engagements within Nigeria’s growing economy, concluded with feedback from stakeholders who called for the inclusion of regulatory bodies such as the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) in future editions.
The Credit Fund of the AfCFTA Adjustment Fund has successfully closed its first investment, committing $10 million to Telecel Global Services Ltd, through a senior secured amortising loan.
The transaction marks a significant milestone in the operationalisation of the Fund. The Credit Fund is one of three Funds under the AfCFTA Adjustment Fund, established by the AfCFTA Secretariat and African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) to provide targeted transitional support to AfCFTA State Parties and private sector entities as they adjust to the requirements and opportunities presented by the AfCFTA Agreement.
Telecel Global Services, a subsidiary of the Mauritius based Telecel Group, provides wholesale voice and SMS services and enterprise connectivity solutions to more than 250 telecoms operators across Africa and globally.
With digital connectivity being at the heart of the trade and economic integration and success of the AfCFTA, this facility will support Telecel’s expansion in Ghana and Liberia, strengthen its infrastructure, and contribute to bridging Africa’s digital divide through enhanced connectivity and digital inclusion.
By investing in digital infrastructure in underserved markets, the Fund is helping reduce trade barriers, foster cross-boarder productivity and accelerate inclusive industrialization. Mr. Jean-Louis Ekra, Chairman of the Board of the AfCFTA Adjustment Fund Corporation, stated: “
The closing of our first deal marks a historic milestone for the Credit Fund and the broader vision of the AfCFTA.
This US$10 million investment in Telecel Global Services is a clear demonstration of how targeted capital can drive meaningful impact—accelerating digital connectivity, enabling intraAfrican trade, and supporting private sector-led development in priority sectors.
It is our commitment to ensure that such investments continue to bridge critical gaps, stimulate economic resilience, and unlock Africa’s vast potential.”
H.E. Wamkele Mene, Secretary-General of the AfCFTA Secretariat, noted: “This transaction demonstrates how the AfCFTA Adjustment Fund is beginning to serve its intended purpose – supporting State Parties and the private sector as we work to make this Agreement commercially meaningful.
By investing in digital infrastructure, we are addressing some of the most critical enablers of trade facilitation, industrialisation, and regional value chain development.”
Prof. Benedict Oramah, President and Chairman of the Board of Directors of Afreximbank, added: “Today, we make another bold statement of our unwavering intent to ensure that Africans reap the benefits of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement.
We are proud to have commenced the operationalisation of the Credit Fund. With this Fund, we will provide vital support to African corporates, helping them retool and expand their operations necessary to capitalise on the AfCFTA opportunities.
The investment strengthens a critical enabler, the digital economy and regional connectivity, while reinforcing our long-term commitment to transforming the structure of the African economy.”
Marlene Ngoyi, CEO, FEDA, the Fund Manager of the AfCFTA Adjustment Fund, said: “This investment exemplifies the strategic intent of the Credit Fund – to catalyse growth and resilience in sectors that are vital for Africa’s structural transformation.
We are proud to partner with Telecel, whose operations directly advance intra-African connectivity and digital trade.”
The Credit Fund will continue to prioritise commercially viable investments that enable trade, support diversification, and promote inclusive growth in line with the broader AfCFTA implementation agenda.
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