Telecom
Smartphone Shipments Expected to Return to Growth in 2019- According to IDC
The worldwide smartphone shipment is expected to decline by 3% in 2018 before returning to low single-digit growth in 2019 and through 2022; this is according to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker,
While the on-going U.S.-China trade war has the industry on edge, IDC still believes that continued developments from emerging markets, mixed with potential around 5G and new product form factors, will bring the smartphone market back to positive growth.
Smartphone shipments are expected to drop to 1.42 billion units in 2018, down from 1.47 billion in 2017.
However, IDC expects year-over-year shipment growth of 2.6% in 2019. Over the long-term, smartphone shipments are forecast to reach 1.57 billion units in 2022.
From a geographic perspective, the China market, which represented 30% of total smartphone shipments in 2017, is finally showing signs of recovery.
While the world’s largest market is still forecast to be down 8.8% in 2018 (worse than the 2017 downturn), IDC anticipates a flat 2019, then back to positive territory through 2022.
The U.S. is also forecast to return to positive growth in 2019 (up 2.1% year over year) after experiencing a decline in 2018.
The slow revival of China was one of the reasons for low growth in Q3 2018 and this slowdown will persist into Q1 2019 as the market is expected to drop by 3% in Q4 2018.
Furthermore, the recently lifted U.S. ban on ZTE had an impact on shipments in Q3 2018 and created a sizable gap that is yet to be filled heading into 2019.
Sangeetika Srivastava, senior research analyst with IDC’s Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers said,”With many of the large global companies focusing on high-end product launches, hoping to draw in consumers looking to upgrade based on specifications and premium devices, we can expect head-to-head competition within this segment during the holiday quarter and into 2019 to be exceptionally high.”
Though 2018 has fallen below expectations so far, the worldwide smartphone market is set to pick up on the shift toward larger screens and ultra-high-end devices.
All the big players have further built out their portfolios with bigger screens and higher-end smartphones, including Apple’s new launch in September.
In Q3 2018, the 6-inch to less than 7-inch screen size band became the most prominent band for the first time with more than four times year-over-year growth.
IDC believes that larger-screen smartphones (5.5 inches and above) will lead the charge with volumes of 947.1 million in 2018, accounting for 66.7% of all smartphones, up from 623.3 million units and 42.5% share in 2017.
By 2022, shipments of these larger-screen smartphones will move up to 1.38 billion units or 87.7% of overall shipment volume.
Melissa Chau, associate research director with IDC’s Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers, said “What we consider a so-called normal size smartphone has shifted dramatically in a few short years and while we are stretching the limits with bezel-less devices, the next big switch to flexible screens will test our imaginations even further.
“While this category of device is still nascent and won’t see major adoption in the year ahead, it’s exciting to see changes to the standard monoblock we are all so used to carrying.”
Platform highlights shows that Android’s smartphone share will remain stable at 85% throughout the forecast.
Volumes are expected to grow at a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.7% with shipments approaching 1.36 billion in 2022.
Android is still the choice of the masses with no shift expected. Android average selling prices (ASPs) are estimated to grow by 9.6% in 2018 to US$258, up from US$235 in 2017.
IDC expects this upward trajectory to continue through the forecast, but at a softened rate from 2019 and beyond.
Not only are market players pushing upgraded specs and materials to offset decreasing replacement rates, but they are also serving the evolving consumer needs for better performance.
iOS smartphones are forecast to drop by 2.5% in 2018 to 210.4 million. The launch of expensive and bigger screen iOS smartphones in Q3 2018 helped Apple to raise its ASP, simultaneously making it somewhat difficult to increase shipments in the current market slump.
IDC is forecasting iPhone shipments to grow at a five-year CAGR of 0.1%, reaching volumes of 217.3 million in 2022. Despite the challenges, there is no ambiguity that Apple will continue to lead the global premium market segment.
The 2023 Subscriber/Network Performance Report of the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) has shown that consumers’ telecommunication spending hit N5.30 trillion in 2023.
The recent figure is a 37.54 percent increase from the N3.86 trillion recorded in 2022.
According to NCC, the increase in spending was fuelled by a spike in data consumption, which translated to higher revenues for telecom operators including mobile network operators, fixed wired, internet service providers, and other telecom services.
“The total volume of data consumed by subscribers increased to 713,200.62TB as of December 2023 from 518,381.78TB as of December 2022. This represents an increase of 37.58 percent in data consumption within the period. The increased data consumption is indicative of the increasing appetite and use for data by consumers,” the NCC said.
This increase in data consumption coincides with only a margin increase in voice calls, with total outgoing calls hitting 205.29 billion minutes, a 0.59 percent increase from the 204.09 billion minutes recorded in 2022.
The total number of active subscriptions increased from 222.57 million in 2022 to 224.71 million, attributed to subscriber loyalty, promos, aggressive consumer acquisition drive, and competitive product offerings across all the networks.
NCC stated that internet subscribers increased from 154.85 million in 2022 to 163.84 million in 2023, and broadband penetration declined from 47.36 percent to 43.71 percent.
This growth in internet consumption has continued into 2024, thanks to increased streaming services and smartphone penetration.
It would be recalled that Karl Toriola, chief executive officer of MTN Nigeria, recently noted that telecom companies are set to benefit from increased demand for data services, which has become the primary driver of telecom revenue.
Between January and September 2024, MTN Nigeria and Airtel Nigeria reported combined data revenues of N1.63 trillion, up from N254.32 billion in the same period of 2019. Over this time, voice revenues—once the primary income source for telcos—grew by only 70.74 percent to N1.44 trillion.
Data usage per user has grown, with MTNN reporting that its average data usage per user rose to 11.3GB in September 2024 from 7.8GB in March 2023.
For Airtel Nigeria, monthly usage increased from 2.8GB in March 2021 to 8.1GB in September 2024.
“We are positioning ourselves to capture the opportunities of growth for the next 10 years. The demand for data in Nigeria is exceptional and will continue to grow,” Toriola stated.
Globacom’s Festival of Joy promo took the centre stage in Abuja on Friday as the company held a draw to select lucky winners of exciting prizes.
The event, held at the Gloworld office on Aminu Kano Crescent, Wuse, was witnessed by officials of the National Lottery Regulatory Commission (NLRC), Glo subscribers, and media representatives.
This draw marks another milestone in the Festival of Joy promo, which has been rewarding subscribers across Nigeria since its launch in October 2024.
Lucky winners in Abuja will receive their prizes, including a brand-new Toyota Prado, tricycles, sewing machines, generators, and grinding machines, on Wednesday, January 22, 2025.
To participate in the promo, new and existing subscribers can dial *611# and recharge their lines (voice and data) during the promo period.
Globacom explained that, “Customers are required to recharge up to N100, 000 cumulatively during the promo period to qualify for the draw for the Prado Jeep, N50, 000 cumulative recharge for Kia Picanto, N10, 000 in a month for tricycle and N5, 000 total recharge in a month to win a generator.
“For the sewing machine, a total recharge of N2, 500 in a month is required, while for the grinding machine, a recharge of N1000 in a week will be eligible for the draw,”.
The subscribers of MTN Nigeria enjoyed the best mobile Internet performances in 2024, according to nPerf’s 2024 report, which analysed mobile internet performance across Nigeria.
nPerf, a French company has been a trusted partner for both fixed and mobile operators, providing comprehensive network testing solutions and analysis.
According to nPerf, in 2024, the mobile market in Nigeria saw significant developments and the leader for this period is MTN, maintaining its position as the global winner.
From January 1 to December 31, 2024, MTN led mobile internet in Nigeria across every measurable category, with great performance. Its subscribers enjoyed an average download speed of 17.82 Mbps, leaving Airtel at 9.98 Mbps and Glo at a distant 5.66 Mbps.
“This period highlights MTN’s continued dominance as the market leader, with no new entrants taking the lead in 2024. MTN emerged as the sole leader, showing impressive advancements across various KPIs and focus areas. The analysis showcases MTN’s superiority in Download speed, Upload speed, and Latency.
Upload speeds were similar, with MTN averaging 8.05 Mbps, Airtel 4.35 Mbps, and Glo 3.43 Mbps, even as reliance on solid internet connectivity never stopped increasing.
Latency, an important metric for real-time applications such as video calls and gaming, further enhanced MTN’s place in the market. The network achieved an average latency of 79.44 ms, comfortably outperforming Glo’s 89.44 ms and Airtel’s 119.85 ms.
These figures are particularly important during peak periods (6 PM to 11 PM) when the network issues are at the highest. MTN’s ability to maintain consistent latency levels during these busy hours speaks to its superior infrastructure.
Beyond raw speeds, the quality of experience (QoE) was also analysed. In browsing performance, MTN scored an average success rate of 36.08%, surpassing Airtel at 28.86%, while Glo lagged at 29.42%.
This difference was also seen in video streaming, where MTN recorded an average streaming success rate of 72.35%, overshadowing Airtel’s 67.04% and Glo’s 53.81%.
Airtel, despite being a distant second in most metrics, delivered a commendable performance in specific areas, particularly video streaming.
Its streaming rate, at 67.04%, shows a strong emphasis on delivering quality experiences in this domain.
However, Airtel’s inability to match MTN’s speeds, browsing performance and latency asserted the gap between the two providers.
Glo, on the other hand, had steady progress throughout 2024. Although it lagged in download (5.66 Mbps) and upload speeds (3.43 Mbps), its performance in latency (89.44 ms) revealed some improvement in network responsiveness.
Glo’s focus on enhancing connectivity is obvious, but it remains apparent that the provider has some ground to cover before it can challenge the likes of MTN or even Airtel.
The data disclosed that whether downloading, browsing, or streaming, MTN subscribers always enjoyed the best experiences.
In the 4G focus area, MTN also stands out as the leader. These achievements underline the positive trends and strong market dynamics” according to nPerf.
The report also said that not only does MTN excel in download speed, upload speed, and latency, but it also leads in Video streaming.
nPerf’s report added that MTN dominates the 4G focus area, reinforcing its pioneering position in the mobile technology sector.
“Significant improvements include a remarkable enhancement in Upload speed. MTN’s consistent contributions have greatly strengthened the overall market landscape” it said
On Airtel, nPerf reported excellence in browsing and streaming, adding that Airtel, while not the market leader, demonstrates excellence in specific categories.
“With a strong performance in browsing and video streaming, Airtel secures its place as a key player. The operator’s contributions are vital to the market’s competitiveness, and its focus on enhancing user experience is evident” nPerf reported.
nPerf further reported that Glo showed steady progress with a commendable improvement in its overall score.
Although not a market leader, Glo has shown improvements in various areas, contributing positively to the market’s dynamics. The operator’s focus on enhancing connectivity and customer satisfaction is noteworthy, according to nPerf.
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