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Smartphone Volumes Will Return to Growth in 2019 and Beyond- IDC

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The worldwide smartphone market is expected to contract again in 2018 before returning to growth in 2019 and beyond, after declining 0.3% in 2017

According to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, smartphone shipments are forecast to drop 0.2% in 2018 to 1.462 billion units, which is down from 1.465 billion in 2017 and 1.469 billion in 2016.

Looking further out, IDC expects the market is to grow roughly 3% annually from 2019 onwards with worldwide shipment volume reaching 1.654 billion in 2022 and a five year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.5%.

The biggest driver of the 2017 downturn was China, which saw its smartphone market decline 4.9% year over year.

Tough times are expected to continue in 2018 as IDC forecasts consumption in China to decline another 7.1% before flattening out in 2019.

The biggest upside in Asia/Pacific continues to be India with volumes expected to grow 14% and 16% in 2018 and 2019.

Chinese OEMs will continue their strategy of selling large volumes of low-end devices by shifting their focus from China to India.

So far most have been able to get around the recently introduced India import tariffs by doing final device assembly at local India manufacturing plants.

As for components, almost everything is still being sourced from China.

Ryan Reith, program vice president with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Device Trackers. said “With 2017 now behind us a lot of interesting market dynamics are unfolding,”

“Even though it declined 5% in 2017, China remains the focal point for many given that it consumes roughly 30% of the world’s smartphones.

“But plenty of pockets of growth can be found beyond China. India is now grabbing headlines and the market itself is going through some rapid transformation.

“Local India manufacturing continues to ramp up, despite still having a heavy dependence on China for components.

“The boom in India is likely to continue in the years to come, but the move toward building up local production has certainly caught the eye of many in the industry.”

Outside of Asia/Pacific, the biggest regions for growth will be the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America.

All three regions have relatively low penetration rates and plenty of upsides.

Economic challenges have been the main inhibitor over the past two years, but IDC expects consumer spending to rise throughout the forecast and smartphones to be a big benefactor.

The other catalyst to watch will be the introduction of 5G smartphones.

IDC predicts the first commercially ready 5G smartphones will appear in the second half of 2019 with a ramp up across most regions happening in 2020.

IDC projects 5G smartphone volumes to account for roughly 7% of all smartphones in 2020 or 212 million in total.

The share of 5G devices should grow to 18% of total volumes by 2022.

Anthony Scarsella, research manager with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, said “Although overall smartphone shipments will decline slightly in 2018, the average selling price (ASP) of a smartphone will reach $345, up 10.3% from the $313 ASP in 2017.

“This year will continue to focus on the ultra-high-end segment of the market as we expect a surge of premium flagship devices to launch in developed markets in 2018.

“Devices featuring large AMOLED bezel-less displays, advanced camera functions, and an overall increase in speed and performance will be the driving factor in the increase of ASPs.

“Moving forward, we can expect this trend to continue as the ASP for a smartphone will continue to grow throughout the forecast period.

“In 2022, the final year of our forecast period, the average selling price for a smartphone will be $362, resulting in a 5-year CAGR of 2.9%.”

Platform Highlights show that Android’s share of total smartphones is expected to remain relatively stable at 85% of total shipments worldwide.

Volumes are expected to grow at a five-year CAGR of 2.5%, with shipments totaling 1.41 billion by 2022.

There is no question that Android is the OS of choice for the mass market and nothing leads us to believe this will change.

Given the large number of Chinese OEMs dependent on Google’s OS, as well as components from other U.S. companies like Qualcomm, it will be interesting to see how things develop with all the discussion about a US-China trade war.

Android OEMs continue to drive down the coast of new technology features at a rapid pace.

IDC estimates that 98% of Android phones will ship with screens larger than 5 inches by 2022, with 36% being 6 inches or larger.

While some of this will remain premium flagship models, the aggregate ASP of Android phones with a 6-inch screen or greater by 2022 is projected to be $414.

iOS: iPhone volumes are expected to grow 2.6% in 2018 to 221 million in total.

IDC is forecasting iPhones to grow at a five-year CAGR of 2.4%, reaching volumes of 242 million by 2022.

With rumors of some upcoming larger screen iOS smartphones, IDC has changed its screen size forecast for Apple by introducing volumes greater than 6 inches.

Products are likely to begin shipping in the fourth quarter of 2018, with volumes ramping up and accounting for 36% of all iPhones shipped by 2022.

 

 


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Ugo Onwuaso is an ICT enthusiast. He believes technology should be used for general good. He holds a Master of Public Administration (MPA) degree from the Lagos state University. Dear Reader, Your support matters. But we believe that technology makes life more exciting and helps improve the lives of people around Nigeria and indeed the world. That is why, we have devoted our energy to independent reportage of technology and finance and how they affect lives. Our incisive and analytical view of how technology news affects the daily life help individuals and organizations make up their minds. Quality journalism costs money. Today, we're asking that you support us to do more. Kindly support our effort to deliver technology and finance journalism to everyone in the world. Donate as little as N1,000. Bank transfers can be made to: UBA Plc 1017156876 Communication Week Media Ltd

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9Mobile Blames Network Outage on Data Center Fire in Lagos

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9Mobile, mobile network operator, has blamed a network outage this week on a fire incident at its main data center in Lagos.

9Mobile Blames Network Outage on Data Center Fire in Lagos

The fire is said to have happened on Tuesday night (December 17), leading to network issues for 9Mobile’s customers until Thursday.

9Mobile said it had experienced multiple fiber cuts which had led to some of the disruption.

Its customers have taken to social media to complain about a lack of voice and data services.

9Mobile is estimated to have more than 11 million mobile subscribers.

The latest outage follows a six-day outage that impacted the carrier in July.

“9Mobile sincerely apologizes for the recent service outages experienced by our valued customers which have affected our ability to provide voice, data, and internet services. We understand the frustration these disruptions have caused and deeply regret the inconvenience,” said 9Mobile in a statement.

“Our technical team has identified the root causes of the outages including a fire incident at our main data center in Lagos last night which severely impacted services, especially in the Lagos and South-West.  We are grateful for the swift intervention of the Lagos State Fire Service, which helped prevent further damage.”

The cause of the fire was not revealed by the carrier.

Acknowledging the fiber cuts, 9Mobile explained that prior to the fire, a fiber cut on the backbone links in Lagos led to a total data outage across the country. Other vandalism incidents in Lagos and Abuja led to a total service outage in the southwest and a data service outage in the north of the country.


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Sytemap Announces 50% Discount on Verified Lands for Women, March 8–14, 2025

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Sytemap, a trusted leader in land acquisition and technology solutions, is thrilled to announce a groundbreaking initiative designed to empower women through affordable and secure land ownership.

From March 8 to March 14, 2025, women—including professionals in Africa and the diaspora—will enjoy an exclusive 50% discount on plots from verified estate developers through the Sytemap platform.

This initiative, themed “Her Land, Her Future,” underscores Sytemap’s commitment to breaking cultural and economic barriers that have historically sidelined women from property ownership. Partnering with over 30 reputable estate developers, Sytemap is creating unprecedented opportunities for women to invest in land with confidence.

For decades, women in Nigeria and across Africa have faced significant hurdles in land acquisition, including high costs, fear of fraud, and societal biases. In fact, studies show that 65% of victims of land scams in Nigeria are women.

Sytemap’s CEO, Nnamdi Uba, stated, “Women have long been marginalized in land ownership, a critical path to building wealth and security. Our mission is not only to make land ownership accessible but to eliminate the fears and uncertainties that hold women back.”

With this initiative, Sytemap leverages its reputation for transparency and cutting-edge technology to offer a simple, scam-free, and empowering process for land purchase.

The campaign is designed to resonate with young professionals, particularly women with good-paying jobs who are ready to invest in their future. For women in the diaspora, the initiative offers tailored support, including seamless international payment options and an innovative plot-monitoring app that allows buyers to manage their investments from anywhere in the world.

Key Features Include:

50% Discount: Available only during the trade fair window (March 8–14, 2025).

Verified Estates: Secure locations vetted by Sytemap and trusted developers.

Flexible Payment Plans: Options to spread payments over several months to ease financial stress.

Digital Monitoring: A dedicated app to track land purchases and allocation progress.

Guaranteed Transparency: Every outright payment comes with instant, verifiable certificate allocation, with land documents delivered within three weeks.

This initiative will launch during the “Sytemap Land Trade Fair 1.0,” an event bringing together key stakeholders, women’s organizations, and influencers to celebrate this transformative moment. Women in the diaspora are encouraged to participate and take advantage of this life-changing opportunity.

Imagine a future where women are equal stakeholders in property ownership, shaping communities and securing generational wealth.

Sytemap invites women across Africa and the diaspora to claim their space and rewrite the narrative of land ownership.

For more details and to reserve your plot, visit https://sytemap.com/women.


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Konga to Launch Africa’s First AI-Powered Hit Music & Commerce Radio Station

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Konga, a leading composite e-commerce group, is poised to transform the Nigerian media and commerce landscape with the upcoming launch of its AI-powered FM radio station in Lagos.

The groundbreaking initiative, set to debut in January 2025, will mark Africa’s first Hit Music & Commerce Station, blending Technology, Entertainment, Commerce and more to drive impactful connections across the continent and the world.

A reliable source reveals that the station – KongaFM will be a pioneering platform to empower brands, distributors, and original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) to connect with untapped markets, revolutionizing commerce in real time. While offering businesses a new avenue for product visibility and market penetration, the station promises to deliver non-stop hit music, ensuring listeners enjoy a unique mix of entertainment and commercial opportunities. It will be a completely new experience for Nigerians.

Equipped with state-of-the-art broadcasting technology and staffed by a dynamic new blend of seasoned professionals and youthful talent, the station will begin test transmissions in the second week of January 2025.

Konga’s latest media venture comes as part of its broader strategy to disrupt conventional marketing communications and amplify consumer engagement across sectors, including FMCG, electronics, and digital solutions.

The move is expected to send ripples across Nigeria’s FX market, potentially influencing the pricing and availability of key goods and commodities. This aligns with Konga’s history of innovation in the e-commerce sector.

This initiative will also complement Konga’s existing TV arm and other media services, positioning the brand as a dominant force in Marketing Communications. Together, these platforms will create synergies that set new benchmarks for how entertainment and commerce converge in Africa while streaming globally.

When asked for further details, Prince Nnamdi Ekeh, CEO of Konga Group, remained tight-lipped, stating that “full details and official announcements will be made in January 2025.”

The anticipation around this launch continues to grow as industry experts and media enthusiasts eagerly await what is already being hailed as the next major evolution in Africa’s media and commerce space.


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