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Subdued Hit from COVID-19, Subdued Rebound Too
By Gregory Kronsten
The impact of COVID-19 on output in Nigeria is likely to be less severe than on many comparable economies. The IMF’s World Economic Outlook in April saw GDP contraction of -3.4 per cent this year and a rebound of just 2.4 per cent in 2021.
We might think that in the early days of COVID-19 (outside China) the Fund then lacked the materials to make credible projections. Yet earlier this month the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects came up with a similar narrative (-3.2 per cent in 2020 and 1.7 per cent next year). For the record, FBNQuest Research’s projections are -3.1 per cent and 2.2 per cent respectively.
Official sources in Nigeria have a melancholier take. Earlier this week Sarah Alade, Economic Advisor to the President and Former Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Deputy Governor, was quoted as sharing a best-case scenario of -4.4 per cent this year and a worst of more than -8.0 per cent contraction.
The governor has suggested, in contrast, that the damage could be less than indicated by the Fund. The point of interest is less the precise number than the underlying story.
We see several domestic and external reasons for Nigeria’s hit to be less strong than that of other emerging markets (EMs). The World Bank projects contraction of -7.1 per cent in South Africa this year, for example, while its central bank (SARB) forecasts -7.0 per cent.
Agriculture is the largest sector of the Nigerian economy and has a large subsistence component that is insulated from COVID-19. The Nigerian economy as a whole enjoys some protection from global headwinds with the obvious exception of the crude oil price.
Manufacturing produces consumer goods for the domestic market, and the reach of global supply chains into Nigeria is limited. Unlike large EMs such as Brazil and Argentina, it is not an important trading nation. Nor is Nigeria a regional hub for air transport. Unlike South Africa and Kenya, it is not a tourist destination other than for its large diaspora in the holiday season.
These factors should limit the contraction of the economy. That said, all the forecasts mentioned for the year would still result in one of the worst GDP outturns ever for Nigeria. We should remember that the per head figure would be far worse, given the annual growth in the population of 2.8 per cent.
A Lagos-based survey by REACH Technologies has indicated an average decline in incomes of about 30 per cent between March and end of May. Carried out on behalf of FBNQuest, the survey also found that respondents cut their spending on high-value items by about 22 per cent over the same period.
As the hit this year will be weaker than that on its peers, so will the rebound in 2021 be for the same reasons. Ideally Nigeria’s growth trajectory would be closer to its peers because it would then be more incorporated within the global village. The federal government does have the opportunity to make changes to increase that degree of incorporation. We note that the federal finance ministry has been quoted as saying that it has permanently exited gasoline subsidies.
We saw an earlier statement to the same effect from the top brass in the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, which has been absorbing the cost below the operational in its accounts. Taking the two together, we are hopeful.
Gregory Kronsten is Head Macroeconomic and Fixed Income Research, FBNQuest
Uncategorized
NAICOM Signs Agreement with NDPC on Data Protection in Insurance Sector
The National Insurance Commission (NAICOM), has signed agreement with the Nigerian Data Protection Commission (NDPC) with the aim of enhancing data protection within the insurance sector.
According to NAICOM, the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) has as its objectives training and capacity building in the area of providing training to enhance awareness and skills in data protection, establishing privacy clinics by setting up specialised clinics to address data protection concerns and provide guidance.
NAICOM said other objectives of the agreement include conducting compliance activities, regularly monitoring and enforcing compliance with data protection regulations, promoting awareness in the area of educating insurance companies on the importance of data protection and the benefits of adhering to best practices.
Developing data protection guidelines through creation of specialized guidelines for insurance institutions to ensure they are equipped to handle data protection responsibilities effectively.
NAICOM said the collaboration marked a significant milestone in safeguarding the personal data of insurance policyholders and promoting trust in the insurance sector.
The commission said to ensure the effective implementation of the agreement, an implementation committee would be established. The committee, the commission said, would comprise of representatives from the two agencies, as well as other key industry associations, including the Nigerian Insurers Association (NIA) and the Nigerian Council of Registered Insurance Brokers (NCRIB).
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5 Benefits of MTN Mobile Ads for your Business
Businesses worldwide are increasingly embracing mobile advertising services, allowing them to connect with potential customers directly on their smartphones and engage with them more effectively.
This trend is rapidly gaining momentum, and companies in Nigeria are also taking part in this shift.
Every day, more Nigerian businesses are seeking the most efficient strategies to reach their target audiences and convert them into loyal customers.
MTN Nigeria is redefining digital advertisement with MTN Mobile Ads. With a rich customer base of 79.5 million subscribers in Nigeria, MTN Mobile Ads continues to help businesses reach millions of customers nationwide.
Here are five reasons you should use MTN Mobile Ads for your business advertisements:
Targeted marketing
MTN Mobile Ads uses first party data to enable specific targeting of audience based on behaviour, interests and demographic. This ensures that your marketing efforts are directed toward the most relevant audiences, thereby increasing engagement and conversion.
Data-Driven Insights:
Businesses can gain valuable insights from their advertising campaigns, allowing them to fine-tune their strategies for maximum impact. This data-driven approach helps in optimizing campaigns based on real user behaviour and preferences
Diverse advertising formats
This service supports several advertising formats including targeted SMS, marketplace listing on the MyMTN app, display banners, and Rich messaging services (RCS) across both mobile and web platforms. This versatility allows your business to customize your marketing strategy to suit different audience preferences and increase engagement opportunities.
Data-free solutions
MTN Mobile Advertising provides data-free solutions. That means users can view your Ads with or without data. This feature significantly increases engagement rate as it allows your business connect with customers who may have been avoiding ads to save their data.
Cost-effective
With MTN Mobile Ads, you can choose an advertising plan that suits your budget. This flexibility allows businesses to enjoy the benefits of advertising without overspending.
As competition in businesses increase, the need to make advertising a crucial part of your marketing strategy cannot be over-emphasized.
MTN’s Mobile advertising services are the most result-oriented strategy your business should engage in so you can have the same opportunities your competitors may have.
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Zuckerberg’s Mar-a-Lago Meeting with Trump: What It Means for Tech
Billionaire Facebook founder, Mark Zuckerberg met Wednesday with incoming US president Donald Trump at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach, Florida, the latest sign of the Meta chief’s warming up to the president-elect ahead of his second term.
“It’s an important time for the future of American Innovation. Mark was grateful for the invitation to join President Trump for dinner and the opportunity to meet with members of his team about the incoming Administration,” a Meta spokesperson told CNN.
Politico was first to report Zuckerberg was spotted at Mar-a-Lago. It was not immediately known what the two discussed.
Zuckerberg was in touch with Trump in the months leading up to the election, according to a New York Times report. After the assassination attempt on Trump’s life in July, Zuckerberg told Bloomberg that Trump standing back up and pumping his fist in the air was “one of the most badass things I’ve ever seen in my life.”
In a book released this summer, Trump accused the Meta chief of “plotting” against him and threatened Zuckerberg with “life in prison” if he did “anything illegal” during the election.
“We are watching him closely,” Trump wrote, “and if he does anything illegal this time he will spend the rest of his life in prison — as will others who cheat in the 2024 Presidential Election.”
In an interview on Wednesday night on Fox News, Trump adviser Stephen Miller confirmed the meeting and said Zuckerberg “has been very clear about this desire to be a supporter of and a participant in this change that we’re seeing all around America all around the world, this reform movement Donald Trump is leading“
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