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Subdued Hit from COVID-19, Subdued Rebound Too

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By Gregory Kronsten

The impact of COVID-19 on output in Nigeria is likely to be less severe than on many comparable economies. The IMF’s World Economic Outlook in April saw GDP contraction of -3.4 per cent this year and a rebound of just 2.4 per cent in 2021.

We might think that in the early days of COVID-19 (outside China) the Fund then lacked the materials to make credible projections. Yet earlier this month the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects came up with a similar narrative (-3.2 per cent in 2020 and 1.7 per cent next year). For the record, FBNQuest Research’s projections are -3.1 per cent and 2.2 per cent respectively.

Official sources in Nigeria have a melancholier take. Earlier this week Sarah Alade, Economic Advisor to the President and Former Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Deputy Governor, was quoted as sharing a best-case scenario of -4.4 per cent this year and a worst of more than -8.0 per cent contraction.

The governor has suggested, in contrast, that the damage could be less than indicated by the Fund. The point of interest is less the precise number than the underlying story.

We see several domestic and external reasons for Nigeria’s hit to be less strong than that of other emerging markets (EMs). The World Bank projects contraction of -7.1 per cent in South Africa this year, for example, while its central bank (SARB) forecasts -7.0 per cent.

Agriculture is the largest sector of the Nigerian economy and has a large subsistence component that is insulated from COVID-19. The Nigerian economy as a whole enjoys some protection from global headwinds with the obvious exception of the crude oil price.

Manufacturing produces consumer goods for the domestic market, and the reach of global supply chains into Nigeria is limited. Unlike large EMs such as Brazil and Argentina, it is not an important trading nation. Nor is Nigeria a regional hub for air transport. Unlike South Africa and Kenya, it is not a tourist destination other than for its large diaspora in the holiday season.

These factors should limit the contraction of the economy. That said, all the forecasts mentioned for the year would still result in one of the worst GDP outturns ever for Nigeria. We should remember that the per head figure would be far worse, given the annual growth in the population of 2.8 per cent.

A Lagos-based survey by REACH Technologies has indicated an average decline in incomes of about 30 per cent between March and end of May. Carried out on behalf of FBNQuest, the survey also found that respondents cut their spending on high-value items by about 22 per cent over the same period.

As the hit this year will be weaker than that on its peers, so will the rebound in 2021 be for the same reasons. Ideally Nigeria’s growth trajectory would be closer to its peers because it would then be more incorporated within the global village. The federal government does have the opportunity to make changes to increase that degree of incorporation. We note that the federal finance ministry has been quoted as saying that it has permanently exited gasoline subsidies.

We saw an earlier statement to the same effect from the top brass in the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, which has been absorbing the cost below the operational in its accounts. Taking the two together, we are hopeful.

Gregory Kronsten is Head Macroeconomic and Fixed Income Research, FBNQuest


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Guinness Nigeria Sustains Growth Momentum in Q4 Amid Market Headwinds

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Guinness Nigeria Plc has announced its unaudited financial results for the twelve months ended 30 June 2025, reporting a remarkable turnaround in performance despite a persistently challenging economic environment and an intensely competitive landscape.

The announcement comes in a landmark year for the company, as Guinness Nigeria celebrates 75 years of operations in Nigeria—a testament to the enduring strength of its brands, its people, and its commitment to brewing excellence.

In the period under review, the company delivered strong topline growth, with revenue rising by 65.8% to ₦496.6 billion, up from ₦299.5 billion in the previous year. Gross profit grew by 62.2% to ₦148.3 billion, while operating profit rose by 86.6% to ₦47.4 billion. Most notably, the company returned to profitability with a net profit after tax of ₦16.2 billion, compared to a ₦54.7 billion loss recorded in FY24.

These results reflect Guinness Nigeria’s focused execution of its strategic priorities, disciplined cost management, and the resilience of its people and portfolio.

Commenting on the performance, Prof. Fabian Ajogwu, SAN, Chairman of the Board, said: “This strong turnaround speaks to the quality of leadership, clarity of vision, and strength of governance at Guinness Nigeria.

“As we mark 75 years of doing business in Nigeria, this performance underscores our long-standing resilience and commitment to value creation. The Board remains confident in the company’s long-term strategy and is committed to sustaining this momentum for our shareholders and stakeholders.”

Girish Sharma, Managing Director/CEO, added: “These results reflect our team’s focus, agility, and deep connection with our consumers. We have set a clear ambition—to be one of the best performing, most trusted, and most respected consumer products companies in Nigeria.

“That ambition is driving us to build a high-performance organisation with an entrepreneurial spirit. While the external environment remains dynamic, we are building on this momentum with confidence and purpose.”

Guinness Nigeria remains committed to delivering long-term, sustainable growth while continuing its legacy of enriching lives and communities across the country.

 


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FintechNGR Rejigs Nigeria Fintech Week with Multi-location Model

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L-r: Mrs. Isioma Udeozo, CEO, Opolo Global Innovations / FAL Partner; Dr. Stanley Jacob, President, FintechNGR; Dr. Jameelah Sharrieff-Ayedun, vice president, FintechNGR and Chair, NFW Committee; Uche Uzoebo, CEO, SANEF; Seun Folorunso, Director, Advocacy & Programs, FintechNGR at the media interaction to herald 2025 Nigeria Fintech Week held in Lagos on Wednesday.
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With the fast-evolving financial technology ecosystem, FintechNGR plans to restructure the model of Nigeria Fintech Week (NFW) coming up between October 7–9, 2025, with a next-level, bold experience and movement uniting over 20,000 multi-industry stakeholders across Africa’s digital landscape.

As part of the restructured model, the event will take place as a multi-location experience, bringing activities to Abuja, Delta, and Enugu, while the main event unfolds at the Landmark Centre in Lagos. This inclusive structure allows for broader access and reflects the national impact of fintech across all geopolitical zones.

Dr. Stanley Jacob, President, Fintech Association of Nigeria, disclosed this at a press conference in Lagos on Wednesday, where the Association officially unveiled the direction for the 8th edition of Nigeria Fintech Week (NFW25), themed “The Fintech Ecosystem Symphony: Orchestrating Nigeria’s Digital Future.” This edition will spotlight how harmonised efforts across government, startups, corporates, and investors can accelerate financial innovation and inclusion across the continent.

According to him, “We’re no longer just an association; we are a movement. NFW25 is where partnerships will be born, sectors will be reimagined, and Nigeria’s digital economy will be orchestrated like a grand symphony.”

Since its inception in 2017, Nigeria Fintech Week has emerged as the continent’s foremost fintech convening – a catalyst for market-shaping conversations, regulatory advancements, and investment deals.

Dr. Jameelah Sharrieff-Ayedun, Vice President and Chair of the Organising Committee, noted that this year’s expansion across multiple cities was designed to enhance accessibility, financial inclusion, and grassroots innovation. “Fintech is no longer for a select few. From the aviation sector to agriculture, from secondary school students to startup founders, this year, everyone has a seat at the table.”

Whether you’re a startup, policymaker, enterprise, student, creative or influencer, developer, or fintech enthusiast, your voice matters in this symphony. As Ms. Uche Uzoebo of SANE puts it, “Even food companies, schools, and churches are now digitizing. NFW25 is where they find solutions and partnerships.”


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Unmasking Nigeria’s Food Safety Crisis: A Dual Pathway to Public Health and Global Competitiveness

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By Diana Tenebe, COO, Foodstuff Store

Nigeria, often heralded as Africa’s economic powerhouse and most populous nation, is grappling with a silent epidemic that exacts a devastating toll on its citizens and stifles its economic potential: a pervasive food safety crisis. This isn’t merely a matter of occasional discomfort; it’s a grim reality where over 200,000 Nigerians perish annually from foodborne illnesses, inflicting an estimated economic burden of US$3.6 billion each year. The current state of food safety is not just a public health nightmare; it’s a significant impediment to the nation’s economic growth and global trade aspirations, demanding immediate, comprehensive attention.

The challenges plaguing Nigeria’s food supply chain, from farm to fork, are multifaceted and deeply entrenched. Across the vast landscape, inadequate practices, weak enforcement mechanisms, and a widespread lack of awareness among both consumers and food handlers contribute to this grave situation. Unhygienic food handling, poor storage conditions, and the pervasive use of contaminated raw materials are disturbingly common, particularly within the vast informal food sector. This sector, a lifeline for many Nigerians, often operates without the most basic amenities, such as running water, adequate refrigeration, or proper waste disposal. The problem is further compounded by insidious issues like food fraud, deliberate adulteration of products, and the indiscriminate misuse of agrichemicals, leading to numerous documented cases of mass poisonings and tragic deaths across the country. A critical and alarming finding is the glaring absence of an organized system for monitoring food safety issues. This systemic failure means that incidents are often misclassified, under-investigated, and consequently, the true scope of the problem remains obscured.

Beyond the immediate public health ramifications, the ramifications of Nigeria’s weak phytosanitary policies and inadequate regulatory oversight ripple into the international arena, costing the nation millions in lost export revenue. The repeated rejection of Nigerian agricultural products by discerning international markets, including the EU, US, and various Asian countries, due to contamination from pesticides, aflatoxins, and pest infestations, severely limits market access and fundamentally undermines the nation’s agricultural competitiveness. The seven-year EU ban on Nigerian bean exports, initiated in 2015 and costing the country millions, stands as a stark and painful reminder of these systemic failures. It underscores the urgent need for a robust and internationally recognized food safety framework if Nigeria is to truly unlock its agricultural potential on the global stage.

Crucial regulatory bodies like the National Agency for Food and Drug Administration and Control (NAFDAC) and the Standards Organisation of Nigeria (SON), along with policies such as the National Policy on Food Safety (NPFS), are in place to ensure food safety in Nigeria. However, their full effectiveness faces ongoing challenges in implementation and enforcement.

These challenges often stem from overlapping responsibilities, insufficient funding, and a need for greater collaboration among the various agencies. Additionally, current legislation lacks comprehensive traceability requirements, which can make it difficult to identify the origin of contamination and assign accountability. Furthermore, certain traditional cultural practices sometimes present a barrier to the widespread adoption of modern, hygienic food handling standards.

Overcoming these formidable hurdles requires a concerted, multi-pronged strategy. For customers, fostering a culture of food safety is imperative. A pivotal step in addressing this crisis lies in empowering consumers through comprehensive public awareness campaigns and readily accessible food safety education. These initiatives must be presented in simple, digestible formats, perhaps through a “food safety culture toolkit” that demystifies complex information. Education should emphasize the critical importance of personal hygiene, safe food handling, proper storage, and effective preparation practices, all aligned with the World Health Organization’s (WHO) internationally recognized “Five Keys to Safer Food.” Also, promoting the widespread adoption of robust risk assessment and management tools, such as Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points (HACCP) systems, is vital for food businesses of all sizes. This proactive approach can significantly mitigate risks throughout the food production process.

For market competitiveness, elevating standards and enforcement should be the goal. To enhance Nigeria’s global market competitiveness, a strategic focus on strengthening regulatory oversight is paramount. This includes substantial investment in modern testing and quarantine infrastructure, which is essential for meeting stringent international standards. Furthermore, establishing a more coordinated and effective phytosanitary enforcement authority will streamline processes and ensure compliance. By improving these standards, Nigeria can drastically reduce export rejections, enhance its credibility in global trade, and unlock immense opportunities presented by schemes like the UK’s Developing Countries Trading Scheme (DCTS), which offers duty-free access to over 3,000 Nigerian products. Crucially, enacting the comprehensive National Food Safety and Quality Bill is a vital legislative step, along with ensuring greater involvement and capacity building for state and local authorities in food safety enforcement.

By prioritizing food safety, Nigeria stands at a critical juncture where it can not only safeguard the health and well-being of its citizens but also significantly boost its agricultural exports, attract much-needed foreign investment, create sustainable jobs, and ensure overall economic prosperity. This is not merely a regulatory issue; it is a fundamental pillar of national development.


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