E-Financial
US Elections: Trump Wins! What Does this Mean for Nigeria?
By Lukman Otunuga, Senior Market Analyst At FXTM
America has chosen Republican Donald Trump as its 47th president following a tight race for the White House!
As of writing, Trump has secured 277 electoral votes with Republicans taking control of the Senate. If the House comes under his control, this will be a “red sweep” scenario.
Assets tied to the “Trump trade” rallied during the Asian session after Trump took an early lead with his victory keeping bulls in the game. US futures are flashing green, Treasury yields have jumped while Bitcoin hit an all-time high.
Before election day, we thoroughly discussed a list of assets that could soar on a Trump win:
· US dollar: jumped 1.8% – its biggest 1-day gain since February 2023 on the prospects of slower rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
· Bitcoin: rallied almost 10% to hit a fresh all-time high above $75,000 as crypto enthusiasts cheered a pro crypto president.
· S&P500 index: futures climbed 1.4% signalling that the S&P500 will open hitting fresh all-time highs. As mentioned in our week ahead report, the prospects of corporate tax cuts and a softer regulatory environment under Trump is good news for US equity bulls.
What does this mean for Nigeria?
Trump’s victory may pressure oil prices as he is seen pushing for a further increase in domestic oil and gas production, leading to increased supply in the long term.
In addition, his policies could see a boost in US growth – triggering inflationary pressures.
Should this prompt the Fed to keep interest rates higher for longer, a stronger dollar may drag oil prices lower as a result. This could be bad news for major oil producing countries who acquire most of their revenues from oil sales.
For Nigeria, the combination of lower global oil prices and a stronger dollar could add to its woes as it navigates a rough period.
Here are assets that could be burned by Trump’s return to the White House:
· Gold: dropped as much as 1.5% thanks to a stronger dollar and rising Treasury yields. The prospect of slower Fed rate cuts could limit upside gains.
· Chinese stock indices: slipped this morning amid renewed fears over US-China trade tensions.
· European stock indices: flashed red due to concerns over the impacts of Trumps proposed tariffs on Europe.
· Currencies of major US trading partners: Euro (EUR), Chinese Yuan (CNH), and especially Mexican Peso (MXN) have all weakened against the USD.
The bigger picture…
Trump’s return to the White House will most likely set the market tone for the next few years with the USD, Bitcoin and other assets tied to the “Trump trade” the biggest winners.
Investors with some skin in the game have already experienced how markets reacted under Trump between 2017 – 2021.
Trump’s unpredictability, policy uncertainty and tariff wars with China left investors on edge. This and other major themes triggered sharp moves on the Vix index during his term. Market volatility jumped over 60% during Trump’s previous administration, from 2017 until 2020. Since then, volatility fell about 10% under President Biden.
What does this mean?
And Trump’s return to the White House is likely to trigger fresh levels of volatility across the globe.
· Trump’s proposed tariff increases in Europe and China could spark a global trade war.
· If this pushes up the prices for American consumers, a return of inflation may spell higher interest rates – boosting the USD.
· An appreciating USD could hit gold prices along with emerging market currencies.
· On the geopolitical front, Trump has already vowed to “stop wars” and swiftly end the war in Ukraine. Any major shifts in US foreign policy that escalate tensions could trigger risk-aversion.
By the way….
With the US election done and dusted, the next market-moving event could be Thursday’s Fed rate decision.
As discussed in our week ahead report, US interest rates are widely expected to be cut by 25 basis points in November. But the election outcome is likely to determine what action the Fed will take in December and beyond.
Traders are currently pricing in a 67% probability of another 25-basis point cut by December.
Given how Trump’s victory could lead to rising inflationary pressures down the road, this may prompt the Fed to keep interest rates higher for longer.
It will be wise to keep a close eye on the US dollar and gold which remain sensitive to US rate expectations.
· A less dovish than expected Fed may push the US dollar higher while pulling gold further away from its all-time high at $2790.
· If the Fed confirms that a December cut is still on the table, this may limit the USD’s upside while supporting gold prices.
E-Financial
Diaspora Remittances to Nigeria Reach $4.22 Billion in 2024, Says CBN
Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has announced that diaspora remittances through international money transfer operators (IMTOs) reached $4.22 billion between January and October 2024.
This figure represents a 61 percent increase, or $2.62 billion more than the amount recorded during the same period in 2023.
CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso shared the figures during an interactive session with the Senate Committee on Banking, Insurance, and Other Financial Institutions at the National Assembly on Wednesday. “The year-on-year increase reflects significant growth,” Cardoso noted.
He also reported that remittances rose from $336 million in September 2024 to $402 million in October 2024 on a month-to-month basis.
Cardoso expressed optimism about continued growth in remittance inflows, saying, “The remittance inflows would continue to rise by the end of the year, given the current trajectory.”
He attributed the surge to improved efficiency in the remittance system, the positive effects of President Bola Tinubu’s policies, and increased trust among Nigerians in the diaspora to contribute to national development.
In addition to remittance updates, Cardoso addressed the state of Nigeria’s external reserves, which he said had grown to $42.01 billion as of December 12, 2024, from $38.35 billion on September 30, 2024.
“External reserves rose largely due to receipts from crude oil-related taxes and third-party receipts in Q3 2024,” he explained.
He added that Nigeria’s external reserves could fund over nine months of goods and services imports, surpassing the international benchmark of three months. “Our external reserves level is a robust buffer against shocks,” Cardoso said.
On the issue of cash shortages, the CBN governor reiterated the enforcement of the new policy imposing a fine of N150 million on any bank branch found distributing new naira notes illegally to currency hawkers.
Cardoso also shared his outlook for the Nigerian economy in 2025. “Distinguished Senators, as we conclude this briefing, I want to highlight that despite the challenges facing our economy, there are clear reasons for optimism,” he said.
“The gradual stabilisation of the forex market, ongoing banking sector recapitalization, and positive growth trends in key sectors, especially the services sector, indicate a path toward recovery and stability.”
This comes as the CBN continues to implement measures to strengthen the economy. On October 17, the apex bank reported that remittance inflows had risen to almost $600 million by the end of September, while on June 25, it granted eligible IMTOs access to trade on the official FX window.
E-Financial
Fraud in Bank Branches Surges by 31 Percent in Q2 — FITC
The Nigerian banking sector has witnessed a concerning rise in fraudulent activities, with incidents of fraud in bank branches increasing by 31 percent in the second quarter of 2024.
This alarming statistic was disclosed by the Financial Institutions Training Centre (FITC) in its Fraud and Forgeries report, highlighting significant challenges to the integrity of the country’s financial system.
Fraudulent activities in Nigerian banks led to a staggering N42.33 billion in reported losses during the first half of 2024.
This sharp rise was driven by escalating fraud across multiple channels, most notably within physical bank branches.
The FITC report revealed that fraud in bank branches rose dramatically to N42.2 billion in the second quarter, compared to N133.9 million in the first quarter.
The FITC data also pointed to a massive 1,560.3 percent increase in computer and web fraud. Losses in this category surged from N24 million in the first quarter to N400.8 million in the second quarter.
In contrast, mobile fraud witnessed a significant decline, dropping by 59 percent from N216.4 million in the first quarter to N88.7 million in the second quarter.
Interestingly, no cases of ATM-related fraud were recorded during the period under review.
The figures also indicate a shift in fraudulent activities involving various financial instruments. Card fraud saw a notable decline of 47.66 percent, with cases dropping from 21,469 in the first quarter to 11,231 in the second quarter. Conversely, cheque-related fraud rose by 36.67 percent, increasing from 30 cases in the first quarter to 41 in the second quarter.
Mobile fraud recorded an even steeper decline in value terms, dropping by 99 percent from N21.6 billion in the first quarter to N216.36 million in the second quarter.
These figures suggest evolving strategies among fraudsters, with some methods becoming less prevalent while others gain traction.
Amid the rising tide of fraud, legal actions have also intensified. In one notable case, an Abuja Federal High Court issued a 30-day freeze on 818 bank accounts linked to a N10 billion cyberattack on a Nigerian bank.
The court’s directive, issued on October 15, 2024, was based on a motion filed by the police against James Akagwu Isaac and other suspects, including several financial institutions.
Analysts say the surge in fraudulent activities underscores the urgent need for heightened vigilance, enhanced security measures, and robust regulatory interventions in Nigeria’s banking sector.
While the decline in some fraud categories, such as mobile and card fraud, offers a glimmer of hope, the sharp rise in branch-based and web-related fraud highlights the evolving tactics of fraudsters.
To combat these threats effectively, experts recommend that banks must invest in advanced fraud detection systems, conduct regular staff training, and strengthen internal controls.
Collaboration between financial institutions, law enforcement agencies, and regulators will also be crucial in mitigating the impact of fraud and safeguarding the financial ecosystem.
The FITC report serves as a stark reminder of the vulnerabilities within the banking sector and the need for proactive measures to address them. Without sustained efforts, the rising trend of fraud could pose significant risks to Nigeria’s economic stability and the trust of consumers in the financial system.
Credit: Tribune
E-Financial
UBA to Deepen International Expansion, Others with N239bn Rights Issue
United Bank for Africa (UBA) Plc said it will utilise the net proceeds of its ongoing N239.4 billion rights issue to invest in additional digital technologies and business expansions that will strengthen the bank’s seven and half decades of impressive performance.
UBA is offering 6.84 billion ordinary shares of 50 kobo each to existing shareholders at N35 per share. The rights issue is pre-allotted on the basis of one new ordinary share of 50 kobo each to every five ordinary shares held as at November 05, 2024.
The rights issue is scheduled to close on December 24, 2024.
Tony Elumelu, group chairman, UBA, said the primary objective of the ongoing rights issue is to strengthen the bank’s position as a pan-African banking industry leader and a highly rewarding institution for all stakeholders.
He said the group decided on the rights issue to ensure that shareholders continue to derive undiluted benefits from a stronger, more innovative and resilient pan-African banking group.
Elumelu said the rights issue would enable the bank to drive organic expansion and business growth within and outside Nigeria, while strengthening its international operations, adding that UBA recently signed an agreement to commence full banking operations in France.
According to him, with presence in key global financial hubs including the United Kingdom (UK), United States of America (USA), France and United Arab Emirates (UAE), the bank would deepen its global operations by investing more in these global markets and further extend its global reach.
He noted that, “With African subsidiaries contributing more than 50 per cent of the group’s overall performance, the bank would also make additional investments in existing African operations while exploring new opportunities. UBA currently has operations in 19 African countries outside of Nigeria.”
He pointed out that the bank’s expansion plan is driven by its philosophy of developing African businesses, noting that UBA is not only expanding its geographical reach, but also playing a strategic and pivotal role in the economic transformation of Africa as a continent.
He added that while the rights issue would enable the bank to meet the new capital requirements stipulated by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the net proceeds would put the bank in a better stead to expand lending to small and medium enterprises (SMEs).
He outlined that the bank would make substantial additional investments in technologies to consolidate its reputation as a cutting-edge financial services group and deliver a more robust customer experience.
To him, new investments in information and communication technology (ICT) would further strengthen the group’s digitisation and operational efficiency, thus fostering improving coordination and synchronisation amongst the various entities and delivering improved service delivery and customer satisfaction.
UBA said it plans to strengthen collaboration and partnership with TELCOs and FinTechs to drive technology-enabled initiatives across Africa that will improve intra-trade, remittances, and payments across Africa.
The bank added that it plans to broaden its payment capabilities to enable it to transform the way merchants collect payments by offering solutions that offer seamless, secure and user-friendly ways of managing and consummating transactions.
Elumelu reiterated the bank’s long-term strategy of becoming the undisputed leading and dominant financial services institution in Africa, with greater emphasis on Nigeria.
- E-Business2 days ago
Kaspersky Cybersecurity Experts Warn of Evolving Holiday Scams
- E-Business1 day ago
Ride the ‘Wicked’ Wave: Temu Brings Green Magic to Christmas
- Telecom2 days ago
Konga to Launch Africa’s First AI-Powered Hit Music & Commerce Radio Station
- News1 day ago
PalmPay, Jumia Reward Users in Festive Campaign
- Telecom1 day ago
NCC Holds Virtual Forum on A2P Licensing Framework
- Telecom2 days ago
9Mobile Blames Network Outage on Data Center Fire in Lagos
- E-Financial2 days ago
Diaspora Remittances to Nigeria Reach $4.22 Billion in 2024, Says CBN
- Telecom2 days ago
Sytemap Announces 50% Discount on Verified Lands for Women, March 8–14, 2025