General News
Virus, Oil Collapse Shake Foundations of Banks
Nigerian banks have more to worry about than the coronavirus: Cratering oil prices and the threat of another naira devaluation are emerging as the biggest risks to how many lenders will emerge unscathed.
According to Bloomberg, the e industry has already agreed to forgo profit to support the economy as measures to contain the Covid-19 outbreak bring most businesses to a halt.
Now, oil prices near $15 a barrel are drying up the largest source of foreign exchange. That’s weighing on the currency in a triple whammy for a sector the central bank is relying on to restructure loans showing signs of stress.
Most banks have their crude risks hedged at $40-$50 a barrel, according to ARM Investment Managers in Lagos, which means provisions would need to be raised if prices remain at current low levels.
A naira devaluation following the one in March could cause dollar loans to sour, which would have to be covered by naira earnings, while also adding to the cost of capital.
“The risk to earnings is higher if oil prices are less than $30 per barrel over a prolonged period of time — up to six months in our opinion,” said Aderonke Akinsola, an analyst at Chapel Hill Dunham in Lagos. “We cannot rule out the possibility that some banks may not survive that.”
The scale of the fallout could surpass that of tumbling oil prices in 2014, which triggered a naira devaluation and five quarters of economic contraction from the start of 2016.
That led to a surge in non-performing loans that eventually contributed to the collapse of Skye Bank Plc and Diamond Bank Plc, which was bought by Access Bank Plc in 2019.
The industry is still trying to recover from restructuring loans related to the oil and gas sector.
The nation’s banks “remain susceptible to deteriorating credit quality due to their exposure to ailing sectors, particularly oil and gas producers,” which account for about 26% of total loans, according to the International Monetary Fund.
“The CBN’s imposed caps on bank fees and pressure on net interest income would also limit profitability.”
Nigerian banks are also under pressure from their regulator, which expects lenders to extend 65% of their deposits as credit.
The central bank last week took 1.47 trillion naira ($3.8 billion) from the cash reserves of lenders for failing to meet that goal and a requirement to park 27.5% of their capital with it, people familiar with the matter said.
“The combined effect of low business activities, higher impairments and possible operational and fair-value losses may result in reduced profit levels and capital depletion,” KPMG Nigeria unit said in an emailed report. Banks will also see a “sharp increase in non-performing loans.”
In order to cushion the impact of the crisis, the Abuja-based central bank is providing about 3.5 trillion naira of intervention loans for manufacturers and health-care providers at 5% interest. It also allowed banks to restructure the terms on loans.
Besides dollar loans to the oil industry, banks also face significant foreign-currency exposure to power companies, which increases their risks in the event of a naira devaluation, according to Renaissance Capital.
United Bank for Africa Plc had 10% exposure to the power sector as of 2019, Fidelity Bank Plc 10% and FCMB Group Plc 7%.
Some winners can emerge from a naira depreciation, like Guaranty Trust Bank Plc, the nation’s largest by market value, because a significant proportion of its capital is denominated in foreign currency, according to EFG-Hermes.
Guaranty Trust Bank reported flat earnings for the first quarter through March after loan charges doubled and fees and commission income declined.
An index of 10 of the country’s biggest banks fell 0.4% on Thursday, snapping six days of gains. The gauge is down 24% this year, compared with a decline of 14% for the 153-member all-share index.
“At the start of the year, banks only had to face CBN’s tight regulations, which threatened margins,” said Emmanuel Adeleke, a bank analyst at ARM Securities. “Now, it is a double whammy.”
Nigeria Immigration Service (NIS) has announced an ongoing upgrade and maintenance of its passport portal for applicants within Nigeria.
In a public notice shared on Sunday via its official ‘X’ page, the NIS reassured Nigerians that other services, including passport applications for citizens abroad, remain fully operational during the maintenance period.
The service stated that its team is “working tirelessly” to complete the upgrade and restore full functionality within 72 hours.
“We sincerely apologise for any inconvenience this may cause and deeply appreciate your patience and understanding,” the notice read. It emphasized that the upgrade is part of efforts to enhance service delivery.
Reaffirming its commitment to excellence, the NIS pledged to provide efficient services to Nigerians at home and abroad.
FBNQuest Asset Management, a subsidiary of FBN Holdings Plc., has been awarded an A+ rating by Agusto & Co. Limited. This rating reflects the firm’s stable outlook, robust risk management, and strong investment capabilities, highlighting its impressive operational performance and outstanding business profile.
It emphasizes FBNQuest Asset Management’s ongoing commitment to providing exceptional investment services to its clients.
The rating was issued in a recent report by Agusto & Co., a leading rating agency in Nigeria. This recognition underscores the company’s strong operational record, excellent corporate governance, and professional management of fund assets.
The organisation’s impressive performance demonstrates its unwavering dedication to delivering exceptional value to clients through a variety of products and services tailored to meet their investment needs.
Ike Onyia, the Managing Director of FBNQuest Asset Management, expressed his satisfaction with the rating, stating, “We are truly delighted to receive the A+ rating from Agusto & Co. This recognition is a testament to our strong expertise in investment portfolio management and the achievements we have realised over the years.
“We take pride in this positive acknowledgement, which stems from our well-thought-out business strategies and the exceptional performance of our skilled workforce, cementing our position in the hearts of our stakeholders.”
FBNQuest Asset Management was also recognised as the Best Asset Manager at the 2024 EMEA African Banker Awards. The organisation continues to maintain a consistently strong position in the investment services subsector in Nigeria, leveraging its rich pedigree in intellectual capital, strong research capabilities, and cutting-edge technology to provide clients with value-adding insights, advice, and service.
“Our mutual funds offer diverse investment options that enable the creation of unique and value-enhancing investment strategies for different client segments.
Additionally, our range of mutual funds encompasses various asset classes, including equities, bonds, and money market instruments,” he added.
Agusto & Co. is a Pan-African leader in credit ratings and credit reports, having assigned over 1,500 ratings across various sectors. Their ratings are globally recognised, with a broad client base relying on them as benchmarks to gauge business success.
TikTok has resumed services to its 170 million users in the US after President-elect Donald Trump said he would issue an executive order to give the app a reprieve when he takes office today, January 20.
On Saturday evening, January 18, the Chinese-owned app stopped working for American users, after a law banning it on national security grounds came into effect.
Trump, who had previously backed a ban on the platform, promised on Sunday to delay the implementation of the law and allow more time for a deal to be made. TikTok then said that it was in the process of “restoring service”.
Soon after, the app started working again and a popup message to its millions of users thanked Trump by name.
In a statement, the company thanked the incoming president for “providing the necessary clarity and assurance” and said it would work with Trump “on a long-term solution that keeps TikTok in the United States”.
TikTok CEO Shou Chew is expected to attend Trump’s inauguration today.
Posting on Truth Social, a social media platform he owns, Trump said on Sunday: “I’m asking companies not to let TikTok stay dark! I will issue an executive order on Monday to extend the period of time before the law’s prohibitions take effect, so that we can make a deal to protect our national security.”
TikTok’s parent company, Bytedance, previously ignored a law requiring it to sell its US operations to avoid a ban. The law was upheld by Supreme Court on Friday and went into effect on Sunday.
It is unclear what legal authority Trump will have to delay the implementation of a law that is already in effect. But it expected that his government will not enforce the ban if he issues an executive order.
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