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Warning Lights Flash Red for Nigeria as Oil Plunges into Bear Market

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By Lukman Otunuga, FXTMResearch Analyst

The taps are leaking dangerously on Oil prices and this is something no plumber can fix in the short to medium term.

Oil prices collapsed yesterday, sinking to levels not seen in six months, after stockpiles on US Crude unexpectedly jumped by the most in five weeks. The steep downside was fuelled by growing concerns over persistent US-China trade tensions negatively impacting growth and hitting demand for Crude Oil. Falling Oil remains a significant risk for Nigeria, especially when factoring in that a lion’s share of the nation’s export revenues is sourced from Oil sales. Should Oil prices remain depressed for prolonged periods, this has the potential to obstruct Nigeria’s economic recovery and threaten stability in the exchange rate.

USD buyers run into brick wall as speculation picks up Fed will accelerate car into reverse

Persistent expectations that the Federal Reserve will drive the car on interest rates into reverse and then accelerate at full speed in response to US-led trade disputes impacting economic sentiment have led to Dollar buyers hitting a brick wall.

Downbeat comments from St. Louis Fed President James Bullard on how a rate cut “may be warranted soon” have dealt the Dollar a knockout punch.

Market pessimism over US-led trade disputes negatively impacting the US economy is now threatening the Dollar’s previous position as a safe-haven in times of market uncertainty, and this view continues to be highlighted in price action for the Greenback. 

The Dollar is very much on the ropes just one week after it reached a new milestone high for 2019; attention will now be drawn towards the US employment report scheduled for release at the end of the week. Dollar buyers need to see signs of resilient job growth in the United States to see some light at the end of the tunnel. 

European Central Bank to repeat pessimism on global economy

Today’s highlight and major risk event for the Euro will be the European Central Bank meeting. It is widely expected that the ECB will leave monetary policy unchanged, but what everyone wants to know is what is the ECB’s take is on the pessimistic views that are surrounding the global economy.  

The Eurozone remains bombarded by a storm of domestic and external headwinds and therefore, the likelihood is high that the ECB will deliver a downbeat assessment of its economy.

A sharp slowdown in EU inflation earlier this week, returning concerns over the Italian budget and Brexit, among many other risks, are pressuring the ECB to remain in a defensive position.

The risk factors that investors will be paying close attention to are the ECB’s economic projections.  Another potential slide lower in economic forecasts, in line with revisions elsewhere that have been downgraded in recent weeks will fuel speculation that the ECB will leave interest rates at record-low levels far beyond 2020.   

Gold continues to glitter as window-shoppers loom

Gold has stormed back into fashion throughout the week following the acceleration in Dollar weakness.

Vulnerability in the Dollar has played an influential role in Gold’s rapid sprint up the hill, with prices punching above levels not seen in over three months to above $1340.

Market speculation over the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates amid trade tensions, a weaker Dollar and geopolitical risks should ensure Gold remains in demand moving forward.

 

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E-Financial

NOVA Bank Opens Regional Office in Owerri

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NOVA Bank has opened its regional office in Owerri, Imo State, as part of its expansion drive across the South-East and South-South regions.

NOVA Bank Opens Regional Office In Owerri

At the inauguration ceremony, recently, Senator Hope Uzodinma, Imo State Governor, announced that the state government would provide land for the development of the bank’s permanent regional headquarters for the South-East and South-South in Owerri.

The event was attended by government officials, business leaders from the two regions, and members of the Nigerian diaspora.

Governor Uzodinma stated that the bank’s entry into Imo State aligned with the government’s efforts to promote economic growth through infrastructure development, improved road networks, and market-driven initiatives.

He described NOVA Bank as an early investor in the region’s emerging economic opportunities.

He also commended the bank’s approach of combining physical banking infrastructure with digital platforms, noting that it aligns with the state’s emphasis on technology-driven governance and commerce.

“In recognition of NOVA Bank’s vision and long-term commitment to the region, the Imo State Government will allocate a suitable parcel of land in a prime location for the development of its permanent South-East/South-South Regional Headquarters,” the governor said.

Speaking at the event, Phillips Oduoza, chairman, NOVA Bank, thanked the Imo State Government and residents for their support, describing the Owerri office as a key part of the bank’s national expansion strategy.

“The opening of our regional office in Owerri marks a strategic milestone in NOVA Bank’s growth and underscores our commitment to the South-East and South-South,” Oduoza said, adding that the city would serve as a hub for the bank’s operations in the region.

He said the bank’s expansion is driven by a focus on sustainable growth, innovation and strong financial fundamentals, noting that NOVA Bank is investing in digital infrastructure and financial solutions to support small and medium-sized enterprises, corporates, public-sector institutions, high-net-worth individuals and the mass market.

According to him, the planned regional headquarters is expected to support job creation, improve access to credit, promote enterprise growth and deepen financial inclusion across the two regions.

Oduoza said the bank remains focused on building a resilient institution that delivers value to customers, partners and shareholders.

The opening of the Owerri regional office marks NOVA Bank’s latest step in expanding its presence in southern Nigeria.


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E-Financial

SEC Says CMOs Must Renew Registration in January

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Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has announced that Capital Market Operators (CMO’s) are to renew their registration from January 1 to 31, 2026.

SEC Says CMOs Must Renew Registration in January

In a bid to make the process seamless, the Commission says it will commence electronic receipt and processing of applications for registration and updates of registration information in the first quarter of 2026.

Dr. Emomotimi Agama, director general of the SEC,  stated this during an interview in Abuja.

According to Agama, “These initiatives reflect our commitment to leveraging technology for faster, more transparent, and efficient regulatory processes. The Commission is taking deliberate steps to make regulatory processes faster, more transparent, and technology-driven. We are investing in automation, databased supervision, and secure infrastructure to improve how we interact with the market.

The SEC Boss stated that through its Digital Transformation Portal, the Commission has automated registration and licensing end-to-end as operators can now submit applications, upload documents, and track approvals online, cutting down manual processing time and reducing the need for physical visits.

Commercial Paper Issuance Module 

He said the Commission has also rolled out the Commercial Paper issuance module, which allows operators to file documents, monitor progress, and receive approvals electronically while feedback from early users shows a clear improvement in turnaround time.

“Work is ongoing to automate quarterly and annual returns submissions, with structured templates and system checks to ensure accuracy. A returns analytics dashboard is also in development to support risk based supervision and exception reporting.

“To back these changes, we have started upgrading our IT infrastructure, servers, storage, networks, and security layers, to boost speed and reliability. Selective cloud migration is underway for platforms that need scalability and external access, while core internal systems remain on premisev5p for now as we assess security and cost implications.

“At the same time, we are strengthening data integrity and cybersecurity with vulnerability assessments and planned penetration testing once automation and migration phases are stable. These efforts show our commitment to building a modern, resilient regulatory environment that supports efficiency, investor confidence, and market stability.

Agama affirmed that the Nigerian Capital Market is clearly on a path toward digital transformation, therefore,  there is an urgent need for regulatory clarity on advanced technologies, targeted support for smaller firms, and capacity-building initiatives.

He said, “A phased and proportionate approach to regulating emerging technologies such as AI is essential, complemented by internal readiness through supervisory technology tools. Furthermore, investor education, particularly among younger demographics, will be critical to future-proof participation and drive fintech adoption.

“Innovation is vital, but it must be accompanied by responsibility. As operators embrace automation, artificial intelligence, and data-driven tools, they bear a duty to ensure ethical, secure, and compliant deployment. Safeguarding investor data, preventing market abuse, and maintaining operational resilience are non-negotiable.”

The SEC DG said that ultimately, responsible technology adoption is about building trust, the cornerstone of our markets saying that trust thrives on fairness, transparency, accountability, and regulatory compliance.

He therefore urged operators to uphold these principles adding that it would not only protect investors and systemic stability but also strengthen the long-term credibility and competitiveness of the Nigerian Capital Market.


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Naira Stability, Lower Borrowing Costs Expected in 2026 — CBN Survey

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The naira is projected to remain largely stable in the coming months, while borrowing costs are expected to ease as inflation moderates, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) latest Business Expectations Survey (BES).

Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) latest Business Expectations Survey (BES

CBN

The survey, which polled about 1,900 businesses nationwide, revealed that confidence in the local currency has strengthened. Respondents expect the naira to rise from an index of 28.8 points to 42.2 points by May 2026, extending the rare period of stability recorded throughout 2025.

Borrowing rates are also forecast to decline, with the index dropping from 15.4 points to 11.7 points, reflecting expectations of softer monetary conditions as inflationary pressures ease.

“Respondents expect the naira–US dollar exchange rate to steadily appreciate across the review periods, as indicated by the positive indices. They also anticipate a continuous positive outlook for borrowing rates during the same periods,” the BES report stated.

The naira has enjoyed an unusually long stretch of stability after losing about 41% of its value in 2024 following the unification of exchange rates. Analysts attribute the current calm to the CBN’s calibrated interventions and steady inflows from foreign portfolio investors.

Inflation, which stood at 14.45% in November 2025, is projected to fall to single-digit levels in 2026. This outlook could give monetary authorities room to begin a gradual easing cycle, potentially improving credit access for businesses.

Despite the improving macroeconomic environment, businesses continue to grapple with structural constraints. The survey highlighted insecurity (70.1 points), high/multiple taxation (69.7 points), and insufficient power supply (69.3 points) as the most pressing challenges. Other concerns include poor infrastructure and an unfavorable political climate, both scoring 57.7 points.

While optimism surrounds the naira and borrowing costs, the BES underscores the need for sustained reforms to tackle deep-rooted operational challenges. Analysts say that without addressing insecurity, taxation burdens, and infrastructure gaps, Nigeria’s businesses may struggle to fully benefit from the improving macroeconomic outlook.


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