E-Financial
What Next for Nigeria as Recession Stages a Comeback?
By Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM
If the Nigerian economy needs more proof that it is wise to diversify away from a heavy dependence on the Oil industry, the latest recession and threat to government revenues ought to do the job.
The country’s ongoing battle to reach healthy growth is under threat thanks to an unprecedented Oil price crash triggered by the coronavirus pandemic back in March 2020. Africa’s largest economy has sunk into its second recession within five years, shrinking by 3.6 percent in the third quarter versus a 6.1 percent contraction in the second quarter. Oil production fell to 1.67 million barrels per day (bpd) from 1.81 million bpd in the previous quarter. The ominous signs are reminiscent of the third quarter of 2016 when the economy contracted for over a year.
The biggest vulnerability is the outsized contribution that the Oil industry makes to the state coffers. In times of strong Oil prices, the industry accounts for around 90 percent of foreign exchange earnings and a handsome 50 percent of government revenues. The plunge in oil prices – which reached sub-zero levels in the wake of the pandemic – dragged on the economy’s recovery from the contraction in 2016.
Government coffers face the prospect of cash flow drying up and the accompanying, unwelcome consequences. These include the prospect of austerity measures, job and salary cuts in the state sector, a reduction in development projects and social protection subsidies along with a heavier reliance on bail-out funds from the IMF and other international lenders.
The IMF projects a 4.3 percent contraction in Nigeria’s GDP this year, the biggest drop in nearly four decades. For the man on the street, this means the threat of unemployment, inflation and soaring food prices. Already, more than half of Nigerians are unemployed in this dire economic scenario. On top of that, a Dollar shortage negatively impacts the private sector’s imports of raw materials and equipment.
Additional vulnerabilities are apparent in the banking sector, which had a N19.54 trillion credit exposure to the weakened real economy in the third quarter, up by N290.13 billion in comparison to the end of August. When added to the state sector’s woes, the results are the triple threats of sovereign debt defaults, bank credit defaults and the state’s reduced capacity to bail out the banking sector.
There’s a chance it’s not too late to avert the worst consequences. On the brighter side, earlier this year, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) took some necessary steps to unify its exchange rates and devalued the Naira by 20 percent, satisfying the World Bank and IMF and opening the door to credit lifelines from international lenders.
Equally important, several international pharmaceutical companies are poised to release their COVID-19 vaccines as early as the end of 2020. While it will take several more months for the vaccinations to progress and short-term uncertainty is expected to prevail, the light at the end of the pandemic tunnel has finally appeared.
Nigeria’s first quarter 2021 outlook is likely to remain influenced by the same themes of pandemic pressures, suppressed Oil prices, shaky demand for Oil, and economic weaknesses. The country is expected to exit the recession by the end of Q1, according to Minister of Finance, Budget and National Planning, Hajiya Zainab Ahmed.
While these are promising signs, the major question is whether the 2021 state budget can revive Africa’s largest economy and get it back on track towards healthy growth. At N13.08 trillion, the budget is over 20 percent higher than the revised 2020 budget. Nigeria plans to borrow N5.2 trillion and the Finance Ministry takes the relatively bullish position that GDP will grow by three percent. Benchmark oil prices are seen at $40 per barrel and the Oil production estimate is 1.6 million bpd. Inflation is expected to close at 11.95 percent.
In closing, Nigeria’s short-term ability to defeat the recession by the end of Q1 depends on two key factors: how quickly the COVID-19 vaccination reaches the population and how fast demand for Oil rises. In the long term, the importance of diversification cannot be underestimated for the economy to be balanced and more resilient against shocks.
Gambaryan, Binance Executive Leaves Company after 8-Month Detention in Nigeria
Tigran Gambaryan, Binance executive, is leaving the exchange after four years of service, eight months of which were marked by detention in Nigeria for money laundering allegations.
Tigran Gambaryan, Binance executive Pix created by photogrid
Gambaryan, praises Changpeng Zhao’s commitment to building a stronger compliance framework.
Having been cleared of all charges, Gambaryan’s departure from Binance marks the end of a tumultuous chapter for both him and the company.
Earlier yesterday, Tigran Gambryan shared an X post, announcing his departure from Binance. He wrote, “Today is my last day at Binance, marking the end of a chapter I’m deeply proud of.”
In a heartfelt farewell, Gambaryan reflected on his four-year tenure at Binance, where he built and led the company’s global investigations function.
Addressing founder Changpeng Zhao, he praised his commitment to building a stronger compliance framework. He noted,
“[CZ] was committed to bringing in experienced leadership to help the company engage more constructively with law enforcement. His support for our mission never wavered, and I’ll always be grateful for the trust he placed in me and the team.”
Further, he highlighted the team’s notable achievements during his tenure. Notably, the team handled over 57,000 law enforcement requests and provided critical support in cases involving financial crimes. He has also led the training of thousands of officials worldwide.
To exemplify, he highlighted cases like assisting the Royal Thai Police.
The team helped them in taking down a massive $270 million crypto fraud scheme targeting citizens in Thailand and the US. He also pointed to the collaboration with Nigeria’s EFCC to recover over $400,000 in illicit funds and provide advanced training to their agents.
Notably, his departure comes following Coinbase’s recent data breach.
The incident exposed personal details of prominent figures like Sequoia Capital’s Managing Partner, Roelof Botha.
Tigran Gambaryan was the Head of Financial Crime Compliance at Binance, who served the exchange for four years.
During a business trip to Nigeria, Gambryan was arrested along with another Binance executive over money laundering allegations.
During his nearly eight-month detention, Gambaryan reportedly endured harsh conditions that took a toll on his health.
Though Gambaryan suffered from malaria and pneumonia, he reportedly received inadequate medical care.
In addition, in a September 2, 2024, court hearing, Gambaryan was subjected to ‘inhumane treatment’ by Nigerian authorities, as evidenced by a video.
However, following consistent requests from his family and influential figures, Gambaryan was finally released and cleared of all charges in October 2024.
It is noteworthy that the Nigerian government sued Binance when the exchange was facing a lawsuit from the US SEC.
While Nigeria is still pursuing the case, the SEC recently dismissed its lawsuit against the exchange.
PalmPay, an African digital bank fintech, is in negotiations to fund between $50 million and $100 million in a Series B financing, according to people with knowledge of the situation.
Although its target worth is unknown, its most recent round in 2021 placed it among the most valuable firms on the continent, coming in just short of unicorn status.
A representative for PalmPay stated that the 6-year-old fintech company is “in a strong financial position and exploring growth opportunities,” but the company declined to comment on the specifics of the fundraising.
People with knowledge of the company’s finances say it is now profitable after raising about $140 million in seed and Series A rounds.
The additional funding, which is anticipated to consist of both loan and stock, will support PalmPay’s growth by expanding its presence in Nigeria, growing its more recent business-oriented product line, and introducing both goods in new African and Asian countries.
PalmPay reported last month that its 35 million registered users were responsible for 15 million daily transactions.
The corporation claims that the value of these transactions now totals “tens of billions of dollars” every year.
Revenue has increased as well. According to those with knowledge of PalmPay’s finances, the company’s revenue has more than doubled since 2023, when it was $64 million, as reported by the Financial Times.
PalmPay was first introduced in Nigeria, the most populous country in Africa and a significant engine for fintech, in 2019.
Since traditional banks primarily served salaried or formal-sector clients, frequently with restrictions that barred mass-market users, more than half of the nation’s adults were unbanked at the time.
PalmPay saw a chance to reverse that approach by creating a digital bank from the ground up while tailoring it to the needs of the unorganized sector in Africa. To meet the needs of underbanked people and small companies, the company released an app with rapid onboarding, no transfer fees, and an expanding range of services (such as credit, savings, insurance, and bill payments).
Importantly, PalmPay relied on more than just digital acquisition. Through the PalmPay Business app and point-of-sale devices (for cash-in, cash-out services), the fintech established a massive on-the-ground network of over 1 million small businesses and agent merchants that currently serve over 10 million clients each month.
The hybrid strategy, which combines digital apps with physical touchpoints, has also been adopted by other significant fintech companies in the nation, such as OPay, Moniepoint, and Paga.
According to 25% of its members, PalmPay was their first banking account, and it promises to execute more transactions than any traditional bank in Nigeria. According to the report, that percentage rises to 60% among borrowers for loan products provided in collaboration with authorized lenders.
PalmPay’s relationship with Transsion, the Chinese phone manufacturer that controls the majority of smartphone sales in Africa with a market share of more than 40% across its brands (Tecno and Infinix), contributes to its strong distribution and marketing edge.
As part of the collaboration, PalmPay pre-installs its software on a few financed smartphones, which promotes user engagement and acquisition.
Now that it has become one of the most popular fintech applications in the nation, PalmPay is getting ready to expand its business strategy overseas.
The neobanking platform has made its first appearance outside of Africa in Tanzania and Bangladesh, where PalmPay is introducing consumer credit and device finance as stepping stones before adding more services. (With differing degrees of success, other African digital banks have extended their financial services into Asia, notably TymeBank, MNT-Halan, and FairMoney.)
According to a business representative, the company also intends to launch device financing in Nigeria.
The Fintech firm is aggressively looking into partnerships with additional original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), according to a representative for the firm, even if Transsion, who spearheaded PalmPay’s seed investment, is still a key partner.
Other investors include MediaTek, one of the biggest producers of mobile chipsets worldwide, and GIC, Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund.
PalmPay’s newly launched business feature, which is currently available in Nigeria, Kenya, and Tanzania (with South Africa in the works), handles “hundreds of millions of dollars monthly,” according to a company spokesperson. PalmPay facilitates cross-border payments for merchants who wish to send and receive payments across Africa via a single API, a persistent pain point (despite the promise of stablecoins).
Source: techbooky.com
The Board of Directors of Ecobank Transnational Incorporated (ETI), the parent company of the Ecobank Group, is pleased to announce the appointment of Ayo Adepoju, the current group chief financial officer (CFO), to the Board as Group Executive Director, effective June 4, 2025.
Ayo brings two decades of broad-based leadership experience and deep institutional knowledge as a proud product of the Ecobank Group. His expertise spans financial management, capital markets, strategic planning, capital raising and structuring, treasury management, investor relations, business performance management, governance, enterprise transformation, financial due diligence, internal control, and risk-based audit.
As a distinguished finance executive, he has been instrumental in shaping the Group’s financial transformation, capital strategy, and long-term resilience. Since joining Ecobank in 2012, he has held several key leadership positions, including Group Financial Controller, Group Head of Business Performance and Analytics, and currently Group CFO.
Over the years, Ayo has led numerous strategic initiatives, including landmark capital market transactions such as Eurobonds, Basel III-compliant instruments, and sustainability-linked debt. These efforts have significantly enhanced Ecobank’s presence in international capital markets and strengthened transparency and investor engagement.
Prior to joining Ecobank, he worked at PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) in London and Lagos, serving in the Financial Services Practice.
Commenting on the appointment, Papa Madiaw Ndiaye, Chairman of the Ecobank Group, stated: “On behalf of my fellow directors, I commend Ayo for his outstanding performance and warmly welcome him to the ETI board. His proven leadership has fostered trusted relationships with the Board and made this appointment both natural and strategic for the Group’s future.
“I believe that Ayo embodies Ecobank’s renewed talent philosophy, a homegrown leader with global exposure and a compelling track record.
“His intellect, integrity, and impact-driven leadership have long been evident. His appointment to the Board is a testament to our belief in recognizing and elevating excellence from within.”
Jeremy Awori, Group Chief Executive Officer, added: “Ayo has played a critical role in strengthening Ecobank’s financial resilience and enabling sustainable business growth.
“His ability to manage complexity, innovate in financial strategy, align finance with enterprise-wide transformation, and lead collaboratively has made him a critical member of our executive team. I look forward to deepening our partnership as we drive forward our Growth, Transformation and Returns strategy.”
Ayo holds a First-Class Honours degree from the University of Lagos and is a Fellow of both the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Nigeria (ICAN) and the Chartered Institute of Management Accountants (CIMA), UK. He also holds an MBA from Warwick Business School and a Ph.D. in Organizational Leadership from Regent University, USA.
He has completed executive education programs at Wharton, London Business School, and most recently in 2024, the Advanced Management Program at Harvard Business School. An official member of the Forbes Finance Council, he is also a published author and respected thought leader in finance and organizational strategy.
This appointment reinforces Ecobank’s continued commitment to nurturing internal talent and promoting leadership excellence across Africa.
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