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What Next for Nigeria as Recession Stages a Comeback?

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By Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM

If the Nigerian economy needs more proof that it is wise to diversify away from a heavy dependence on the Oil industry, the latest recession and threat to government revenues ought to do the job.

The country’s ongoing battle to reach healthy growth is under threat thanks to an unprecedented Oil price crash triggered by the coronavirus pandemic back in March 2020. Africa’s largest economy has sunk into its second recession within five years, shrinking by 3.6 percent in the third quarter versus a 6.1 percent contraction in the second quarter. Oil production fell to 1.67 million barrels per day (bpd) from 1.81 million bpd in the previous quarter. The ominous signs are reminiscent of the third quarter of 2016 when the economy contracted for over a year.

The biggest vulnerability is the outsized contribution that the Oil industry makes to the state coffers. In times of strong Oil prices, the industry accounts for around 90 percent of foreign exchange earnings and a handsome 50 percent of government revenues. The plunge in oil prices – which reached sub-zero levels in the wake of the pandemic – dragged on the economy’s recovery from the contraction in 2016.

Government coffers face the prospect of cash flow drying up and the accompanying, unwelcome consequences. These include the prospect of austerity measures, job and salary cuts in the state sector, a reduction in development projects and social protection subsidies along with a heavier reliance on bail-out funds from the IMF and other international lenders.

The IMF projects a 4.3 percent contraction in Nigeria’s GDP this year, the biggest drop in nearly four decades. For the man on the street, this means the threat of unemployment, inflation and soaring food prices. Already, more than half of Nigerians are unemployed in this dire economic scenario. On top of that, a Dollar shortage negatively impacts the private sector’s imports of raw materials and equipment.

Additional vulnerabilities are apparent in the banking sector, which had a N19.54 trillion credit exposure to the weakened real economy in the third quarter, up by N290.13 billion in comparison to the end of August. When added to the state sector’s woes, the results are the triple threats of sovereign debt defaults, bank credit defaults and the state’s reduced capacity to bail out the banking sector.

There’s a chance it’s not too late to avert the worst consequences. On the brighter side, earlier this year, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) took some necessary steps to unify its exchange rates and devalued the Naira by 20 percent, satisfying the World Bank and IMF and opening the door to credit lifelines from international lenders.

Equally important, several international pharmaceutical companies are poised to release their COVID-19 vaccines as early as the end of 2020. While it will take several more months for the vaccinations to progress and short-term uncertainty is expected to prevail, the light at the end of the pandemic tunnel has finally appeared.

Nigeria’s first quarter 2021 outlook is likely to remain influenced by the same themes of pandemic pressures, suppressed Oil prices, shaky demand for Oil, and economic weaknesses. The country is expected to exit the recession by the end of Q1, according to Minister of Finance, Budget and National Planning, Hajiya Zainab Ahmed.

While these are promising signs, the major question is whether the 2021 state budget can revive Africa’s largest economy and get it back on track towards healthy growth. At N13.08 trillion, the budget is over 20 percent higher than the revised 2020 budget. Nigeria plans to borrow N5.2 trillion and the Finance Ministry takes the relatively bullish position that GDP will grow by three percent. Benchmark oil prices are seen at $40 per barrel and the Oil production estimate is 1.6 million bpd. Inflation is expected to close at 11.95 percent.

In closing, Nigeria’s short-term ability to defeat the recession by the end of Q1 depends on two key factors: how quickly the COVID-19 vaccination reaches the population and how fast demand for Oil rises. In the long term, the importance of diversification cannot be underestimated for the economy to be balanced and more resilient against shocks.


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E-Financial

PalmPay Reaffirms Commitment to Ensuring a Safe Financial Ecosystem @ Anti-Fraud Walk

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As part of the commemoration of 2024 International Fraud Awareness Week, PalmPay over the weekend organized anti-fraud walk in Ikeja area of Lagos aimed at educating Nigerians on the need to secure their personal transactions information against fraudsters.

Mr. Chika Nwosu, managing director, PalmPay speaking at the event expressed PalmPay’s commitment to ensuring a safe financial ecosystem as events like this are central to that mission.

“This global initiative underscores a pressing issue that touches individuals, businesses, and economies alike—fraud. This week serves not only as a reminder of the pervasive risks posed by fraud but also as a call to action to combat it through education, awareness, and collaboration.

“Fraud is more than just a crime, it is a systemic threat that undermines trust, compromises security, and disrupts progress. Its effects are far-reaching, impacting personal livelihoods and the integrity of businesses.

“As digital payment platforms rapidly expand across Nigeria, fraudsters have unfortunately seized the opportunity to exploit vulnerabilities in the system. Mobile, web, and POS channels are now prime targets for criminal activities. Recent statistics from the Financial Institutions Training Centre (FITC) reveal that over 11,500 fraud cases were reported in Q2 2024—a stark reminder of the growing sophistication and persistence of these threats.  These figures are more than numbers; they represent real people whose trust has been broken and whose finances have been compromised.

“Fraud prevention is a collective effort. Individuals, businesses, and governments must work together to build a robust defense against this menace.

“On the people side, we need to educate people on the need to safe guard their PIN because when you compromise your PIN if fraud happens from that end it will not be our fault. It is better we educate people to be aware so that they don’t compromise their PIN or password.

“At PalmPay, we recognize that combating fraud begins with awareness. That is why we have taken a proactive approach to ensure that our users and the broader community are equipped with the knowledge and tools they need to stay protected.

“Our campaign this week focuses on empowering individuals to safeguard their digital identities, spot fraudulent schemes, and take swift action when they encounter suspicious activities,” he stated.

He highlighted some of the key lessons for fraud prevention  to include:

  1. Stay Informed: Regularly update yourself on emerging fraud tactics and the steps to counter them.
  2. Protect Your Information: Safeguard personal and financial details, using strong passwords and secure platforms.
  3. Verify and Report: Always verify requests for sensitive information and report suspicious activities promptly.
  4. Educate Others: Share what you’ve learned with family, friends, and colleagues, creating a ripple effect of awareness.

At PalmPay, we are deeply committed to leading the fight against fraud. This commitment extends beyond our platforms and services. It is reflected in our efforts to collaborate with industry stakeholders, engage with communities, and invest in cutting-edge security technologies.


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Greenwich Merchant Bank Chairman Honoured with NBCC Leadership Award

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Kayode Falowo, Chairman of Greenwich Merchant Bank Limited, has been bestowed with the Sir Henry Fajemirokun Prize for Outstanding Leadership in recognition for actively promoting Nigerian-British bilateral trade.

The Award which seeks to celebrate and acknowledge business magnates and industry leaders who are instrumental in driving bilateral trade forward was presented at the Nigerian-British Chamber of Commerce (NBCC) 2024 Presidential Dinner & Award Ceremony, held in Lagos on the 20th of November, 2024.,

As part of his leadership roles, Falowo is the immediate past President and Chairman of the Council of the Nigerian-British Chamber of Commerce.

A seasoned Investment Banker who is very passionate about the development of the Capital Market in Nigeria, he was also a Council member of the Nigerian Stock Exchange and once served as the Chairman of the Capital Market Committee on Products and Business Development.

Falowo currently sits on the Board of the National Association of Securities Dealers (NASD) Plc, where he is also the Chairman of the Rules Committee.

Meanwhile, the Chairman of Greenwich Merchant Bank also received another award for his contribution to the success story of the Anglican Diocese of Lagos West in the past 25 years.

Speaking on the commitments to supporting businesses between the countries, the NBCC President, Ray Atelly commended the recipients of the various categories of Awards for actively promoting Nigerian-British trade relations.

“Tonight, we celebrate the achievements of individuals, private-sector giants, and corporations who have not only excelled in their respective fields but have also actively promoted Nigerian-British trade relations.

“They have elevated standards, driven innovation, and demonstrated the profound impact of collaborative success. Our awardees tonight embody the spirit of progress.

“Their successes affirm the power of dedication, resilience, and the far-reaching impact of a shared vision,” Atelly said.

Dr. Jumoke Oduwole, Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment, and other stakeholders who commended the Award recipients also underscored the importance of advancing bilateral trade relations between Nigeria and UK.

Oduwole said the Federal Government was committed through reforms, trade facilitation, investment promotion and industrial policy to drive economic diversification and inclusive growth.

She said that the government aligned with the NBCC initiative to ensure that Nigerian businesses were well positioned to compete globally while benefitting from Britain’s trade investment and expertise.

The Miniter noted that the trade relationship between both countries was valued at 7.5 billion pounds with Nigeria exporting approximately 2.5 billion annually.


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EFCC Says Nigerian Banks are Notorious Conduits of Financial Crimes

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Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) has warned banks against making themselves available as instruments of fraud.

EFCC Says Nigerian Banks are Notorious Conduits of Financial Crimes

Ola Olukoyede, charman, EFCC, issued the warning on Friday when the management team of Moniepoint, led by Tosin Eniolorunda, its founder and Group CEO, paid a courtesy visit to the commission’s headquarters in Abuja.

Speaking through Michael Nzekwe, his chief of staff, the EFCC boss noted that Nigerian banks over the years have become notorious as conduits of financial crimes and advised them to turn a new leaf for the sake of the growth of the country.

“There’s hardly any financial crime that would not go through the financial institutions. Money laundering is a major issue and you find out also that the perpetrators go through the banks. Nigeria will be the greatest beneficiary when we do the right thing,” he said.

Addressing the Moniepoint delegation, Olukoyede said, “Try as much as possible on your own to avoid any form of connivance and don’t be a channel for money

“Don’t be a tool. Don’t make your system porous. You are a major stakeholder when it comes to the fight against corruption. We are open and would assist, however we can. No one is above the law”.

Olukoyede observed that there was a high level of poor internal control by fintechs at the level of the unbanked, the under-served and the middle class population spectrum.

“There’s quite a whole lot of fraud that goes around that particular level, so the issue of KYC (Know Your Customer) is very important, especially because of the issue of how fintechs open tier-one accounts, sometimes without attention to KYC.

“And people take advantage of this and are quick to commit fraud through this negligence. So, that’s one area you have to also look at to see how you can improve on your KYC.

“Increasing your level of collaboration with the EFCC would mean to see yourselves as stakeholders in the fight against corruption.

“We would like you to be able to respond to us when we make inquiries and when we make requests.

On EFCC’s readiness to collaborate with Moniepoint, Olukoyede stated that, “On our part, we are open to whatever it is that you want us to do. We value it that you are here today to seek a stronger tie and collaboration.

“When we have stakeholders come in and want to be part of what we are doing, majorly stakeholders like you, it gives us joy because we know that no one man can fight corruption alone.

“The collaboration you seek tells us that you want to strengthen your system; you want to be able to create more internal controls. You want to be able to put in place things that will mitigate those weaknesses that will lead to fraud within your system, that’s what we do. Our core mandate is enforcement and investigation of economic and financial crimes. So, we’re glad and wish to collaborate with you”

Earlier in his remarks, Eniolorunda noted that the expansion in the operations and services of the fintech and microfinance company have come with challenges which have made the need for a strategic collaboration with the EFCC compelling.

“Moniepoint has over the years grown to become one of Nigeria’s largest payment service providers and the bank for mostly mid-class businesses and the under-served.

“Today, Moniepoint processes roughly 70% of Nigeria’s payments on Point-of-Sale (PoS) and transfers. We are present also in the UK and we are going through some potential set-up also in Kenya, which is at an advanced stage with its Central Bank. And also in Tanzania.

“Of course, with all this growth comes also challenges. One of the biggest challenges is the nature of our country, where if people find the opportunity to make fast money, they will make fast money. And we have realised that as Moniepoint is helping people make ends meet, these sorts of people are also trying to use Moniepoint channels to achieve their criminal objectives.

“So, we are actively fighting, improving all the necessary KYC accounts, money laundering and fund protection systems, but we know that we can’t do this alone. There are experts in a government organisation like the EFCC that we believe we need to have a strategic relationship with to be able to fight these people together.

“There are intels that you see that we don’t see. There are many things that come across your desk, every day that we don’t see. There are also things that we see that we think that if we should show to you, we will all be able to come together and fight these bad guys. We have, over the years improved on many things; discover a lot of potential fraud, collaborated with law enforcement agencies.

“With our whole management team, we will be able to find a strategic partnership with the EFCC that would take us to the next level.

“So we need to quickly build stronger alliances to prevent any form of risks that will blossom into national security issue,” he said.


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