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What the Recent Oil Disruption Means for Nigeria

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By Lukman Otunuga, senior,Research Analyst,FXTM

The unprecedented Oil disruption in Saudi Arabia in September shocked the markets and triggered multiple financial reactions for investors across the globe.

Oil prices exploded 20 percent higher on Monday September 16 after attacks on Saudi Oil fields caused disruptions of 5.7 million barrels per day, roughly five percent of global Oil supplies. Oil later gave back gains after Saudi Arabia pledged that Oil production would be up and running by the end of September.

However, there are doubts that the damage – which is thought to run into the hundreds of millions of Dollars – will be fixed so quickly.

Dynamic influencing Oil market swing back and forth

The uncertainty is also disrupting Oil prices, which spike intermittently before calming on data like the US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) report about a 2.4 million barrel build in Crude oil inventories on September 25.

On top of that, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East add more concerns for the short-term future of Oil markets.

Going forward, Oil prices are expected to be more sensitive to negative supply shocks, at least in the short term. If the serious tensions between Iran and the US escalate, Oil prices may be supported with a degree of upside potential.

OPEC continues with its quest to stabilize markets

Another factor to consider is OPEC’s reaction and possible change of mind over its supply cut policy. As recently as September 12, OPEC persuaded Nigeria to join supply cuts to prevent a global glut from drastically undercutting prices and Oil revenues for Oil-producing countries. The supply-side circumstances have changed considerably since then.

Recent reports have revealed that OPEC’s oil output fell to an eight-year low in September, pumping 28.9 million barrels per day (bpd) which was down 750,000 bpd from August’s revised figure and lowest monthly total since 2011.

Should Saudi Arabia experience more attacks or take longer than expected to restore normal Oil production from the damaged facilities, OPEC may need to reconsider supply cuts and increase production so its members can meet global supply demand.

At the time of writing, Nigeria’s Light Sweet Crude Oil Kwa Ibo and Bonny Light are trading at their normal level of $3 above the Brent Crude benchmark because Saudi Arabia has pledged to be back to normal light Crude oil production levels by the end of September. In the meantime, Saudi Arabia has restored output to 11.3 million barrels per day but is relying on sales of heavy Crude oil. Should Saudi Arabia disappoint the market’s expectations, light sweet Crude oil prices may change in Nigeria’s favour.

Overall, given how Oil sales account for roughly 70 percent of government revenues and 90 percent of Nigeria’s foreign exchange earnings, if the recent disruption results in a net rise in Oil prices, it could offer short-term support to the nation.

Impact on Nigeria’s economic growth

As an emerging market energy exporter, the prospects of rising Oil prices should feed back into Nigeria’s economic growth. Higher Oil prices would boost the nation’s foreign exchange reserves, promote foreign exchange stability and boost government spending in economic infrastructure which in turn would be positive for growth.

On the other hand, Nigeria’s fiscal and monetary policy makers must always be on the lookout for inflationary pressures. In August, inflation in Nigeria fell to 11.02 percent, a 43-month low. But higher Oil prices may squeeze company and consumer transportation budgets, re-igniting inflation.

Higher Oil price could hit consumer spending

The flip side of higher Oil prices is the risk of rising inflation. This would likely drag on consumer spending and complicate central bank efforts to ease monetary policy, which may end up pressuring economic growth.

On a larger scale, the threat of a global recession lurks around the corner. Rising Oil prices could also threaten global growth with higher running costs.

While Nigeria and energy producers would welcome higher Oil prices, everyone will lose if unaffordable costs tip the global economy into recession.

Diversification remains the cure to Nigeria’s oil dependence

In September, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) left interest rates unchanged at 13.5 percent. Movements in the Oil markets have a direct impact on CBN’s rate decisions, so I am closely watching developments in this area. Especially when considering how the CBN Governor wants inflation to slow to 9% or less before he considers cutting interest rates further.

Long term, for Nigeria to reduce exposure to Oil volatility, the quest for diversification needs to build momentum. Nigeria could source growth from non-Oil sectors like Agriculture and Services.

In conclusion, until diversification reduces Nigeria’s dependence on Oil revenues, the economy remains vulnerable to Oil price volatility and an uneven demand-supply equation.


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Ugo Onwuaso is an ICT enthusiast. He believes technology should be used for general good. He holds a Master of Public Administration (MPA) degree from the Lagos state University. Dear Reader, Your support matters. But we believe that technology makes life more exciting and helps improve the lives of people around Nigeria and indeed the world. That is why, we have devoted our energy to independent reportage of technology and finance and how they affect lives. Our incisive and analytical view of how technology news affects the daily life help individuals and organizations make up their minds. Quality journalism costs money. Today, we're asking that you support us to do more. Kindly support our effort to deliver technology and finance journalism to everyone in the world. Donate as little as N1,000. Bank transfers can be made to: UBA Plc 1017156876 Communication Week Media Ltd

General News

FG Collaborates with China to Digitalize Customs

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Federal Government is increasing collaborations with China to digitalise Nigeria Customs Service operations. This past weekend, NCS strengthened its cooperation efforts through a high-level engagement with the General Administration of Customs of China (GACC).

The meeting, held in Beijing, China, brought together senior officers of the customs service and top officials from the GACC to explore bilateral knowledge exchange and capacity development in customs administration.

Abdullahi Maiwada, NCS Assistant Comptroller of Customs said that discussions were held with officials from the GACC International Cooperation Division, the Training and Education Centre and representatives of the Shanghai Customs College.

“The engagement focused on deepening cooperation in customs training methodologies, modernisation models and technology-driven solutions, especially as China plays a pivotal role in Nigeria’s international trade network,” said Maiwada.

He added that during the meeting, the Chinese customs authorities shared their structured training system, which incorporates virtual reality, 5G-enabled systems, and blended e-learning approaches. In 2024, GACC conducted over 8 000 physical training sessions and developed 360 online courses.

Discussions also highlighted Nigeria’s active participation in China-led customs development initiatives, with over 200 African customs officers, including 89 from Nigeria, having received training since 2023 across various areas, such as trade facilitation, anti-smuggling enforcement, food safety supervision and digital port operations.

The bilateral dialogue between the two customs agencies also heralded new areas of collaboration, including Nigeria’s participation in upcoming Customs Modernisation Courses and officer development training at the Shanghai Customs College.

 


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Tesla Taps Samsung for Next-Gen AI Chip Production in $16.5Bn Deal

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Tesla CEO, Elon Musk has announced a $16.5 billion chip supply agreement with Samsung Electronics, a move expected to revive the South Korean company’s struggling foundry business.


The deal will see Samsung’s new chip factory in Taylor, Texas, manufacture Tesla’s next-generation AI6 chip.

Musk revealed that Tesla will help optimise production at the plant, located near his home, adding, “I will walk the line personally to accelerate the pace of progress.”

“The $16.5B figure is just the minimum — actual output will likely be several times higher,” Musk said in a post on X.

Samsung’s shares surged 6.8% to their highest level since September 2024 following the announcement, while Tesla stock gained 1.9% in premarket trading.

According to analysts, the Taylor facility previously struggled to attract major clients. The Tesla order marks a significant breakthrough, especially after reports in October 2024 revealed Samsung had delayed equipment deliveries due to a lack of customers.

Samsung currently produces Tesla’s AI4 chips for its Full Self-Driving system. While TSMC is set to make the AI5 chips, Samsung has now secured the more advanced AI6.

Though no specific timeline was shared, AI6 production is expected to begin in 2027 or 2028. Musk previously stated AI5 chips would be ready by late 2026.

Samsung, the world’s largest memory chipmaker, is working to expand its contract manufacturing business, which currently holds just 8% of the global market — far behind TSMC’s 67%.

The chip deal, running through 2033, had been initially announced without naming Tesla as the client. However, multiple sources confirmed the U.S. automaker as the buyer.

The partnership comes as Samsung faces intense pressure to compete in the booming AI chip sector. Earlier this month, the company projected a 56% drop in Q2 operating profit, with foundry losses exceeding $3.6 billion in the first half of the year.

Industry analysts say this deal could help reverse Samsung’s fortunes, offering a much-needed win in its race to stay competitive in a capital-intensive and technologically demanding field.


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New Tax Law Empowers NRS to Fine Offenders up to N10m

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The newly enacted Nigeria Tax Administration Act, 2025, has empowered the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS), renamed Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS), to impose fines for individuals and companies for failing to register, file returns, use tax technology, or disclose basic information like a change of business address.

New Tax Law Empowers NRS to Fine Offenders up to N10m

The Act is among the tax laws signed by President Bola Tinubu on June 26.

The tax administration law is expected to take effect from January 1, 2026, under a renamed agency — the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS), currently known as the FIRS.

The Act, which is an updated version of previous fragmented tax enforcement provisions, outlines a comprehensive list of offences and corresponding penalties, with fines ranging from N10,000 to N10 million, as well as prison terms of up to 10 years for serious breaches.

Under the general offences and penalties section of the law, a taxable person who fails to register with the relevant tax authority is liable to a N50,000 fine in the first month and N25,000 for each subsequent month of default.

The Act stressed that companies that award contracts to unregistered vendors will face a N5 million penalty.

The law also imposes a N100,000 fine for failure to file tax returns, plus N50,000 monthly for as long as the failure continues.

“A taxable person who fails or refuses to file returns or knowingly files incomplete or inaccurate returns to the relevant tax authority in accordance with the provisions of this Act, shall be liable to pay an administrative penalty of (a) 100,000 in the first month in which the failure occurs; and (b) N50,000 for each subsequent month in which the failure continues,” the Act reads.

“A taxable person who Failure to books (a) fails to keep accounts, books and records of business transactions and income, to allow for the correct ascertainment of tax and filing of returns to the relevant tax authority; or (b) upon request by the relevant tax authority, fails to provide any record or book prescribed in this Act shall be liable to pay an administrative penalty of- (i) in the case of a person other than a company, N10,000, and (ii) in the case of a company, N50,000.”

Also, the law states that failure to notify the tax authority of a change of address within 30 days of such change, giving a wrong address, or failing to comply with the requirement for notification of permanent cessation of trade or business under the relevant tax laws shall be liable to an administrative penalty.

“A taxable person who fails to notify the relevant tax authority – Failure to notify change of address (a) N100,000 for the first month in which the failure occurs; and (b) 45,000 for each subsequent month failure persists,” the law reads.

In a bid to modernise tax compliance, the Act makes it compulsory for businesses to allow the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) to deploy fiscalisation technology or face a N1 million fine for the first day of refusal and N10,000 for each day after.

Any business that fails to process sales through the fiscalisation system will also be fined N200,000, pay 100 percent of the tax due, and accrue interest at the prevailing Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) monetary policy rate.

The Act is especially punitive toward those who fail to deduct or remit taxes.

“A person that deducts, collects, or withholds any tax under this Act, and fails to remit the amount deducted, collected, or withheld by the 21st day of the month immediately succeeding the month in which the amount was deducted, collected, or withheld, is liable to pay,” it added.

“Failure to remit tax deducted source or self-account (a) the amount deducted, collected or withheld but not remitted; (b) an administrative penalty of 10% per annum of the tax deducted, collected or withheld but not remitted; and (c) interest at the prevailing Central Bank of Nigeria monetary policy rate. “A person convicted of any of the offences under this section shall be liable to a term of imprisonment not exceeding three years, or a fine of not less than the principal amount due plus a penalty of not more than 50% of the sum, or both.

“A person who (a) fails to comply with the requirements of a notice served under this Act or any other tax law; (b) fails to attend or provide answers to a notice, summons or process served under this Act or any other tax law; or (c) having attended, fails to answer any question lawfully put to him, is liable to an administrative penalty of N100,000 in the first day of default and N10,000 for every subsequent day where the default.”


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