E-Financial
Will Oil Prices Help or Harm Nigeria’s Economy in Q3?
By Lukman Otunuga, FXTM Research Analyst,
Global Oil prices looked tired, exhausted and ready for an early summer break during the second quarter of 2019 as global growth fears overshadowed supply disruptions and ongoing OPEC supply cuts. At the time of writing, Oil prices remain shaky and vulnerable despite OPEC+ latest decision to extend production cuts until March 2020.
The crucial question is whether Oil prices will ever recover and trade back towards the $70+ levels. That depends less on geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and more on whether the US and China can reach a trade deal, settling disputes over tariffs and opening the door to continued global growth. In this case, it’s likely that Oil prices will be injected with a renewed sense of confidence on the back of boosted global growth expectations and demand for Oil. But what if the current circumstances persist and the US-China trade disputes continue throughout the second half of 2019?
Taking each scenario one-by-one, starting with the upside for Oil prices, Nigeria’s economy could benefit considerably if a US-China trade deal is reached and global growth expectations become brighter. The manufacturing sectors in the US and China are the Oil-gobbling engines which drive demand for international Oil suppliers. China is the world’s top crude Oil consumer, importing more than 50 percent of its consumption, part of which comes from Nigeria. In the fourth quarter of 2018, Nigeria exported N23.5 billion worth of crude Oil to China and remains a major trading partner to the Asian giant. It’s likely that if China’s economy roars back to life, Nigeria’s growth would see more long-term support, benefiting foreign exchange reserves and the Naira. Although unlikely, if a trade deal were to be announced early in the quarter, it’s possible the nation’s 2019 budget would also see ample support from increased Oil revenues from China. This argument doesn’t apply to the US which has considerably reduced its crude Oil imports from Nigeria as it heads towards energy independence, relying instead on domestic production to meet its own needs.
If you take the negative outlook on Oil, it’s more likely the rise in Oil prices is a temporary result of supply shortage fears and the prevalent trend in Q3 will be downward pressure from concerns over a global recession. In this unfavorable scenario, the world’s two largest economies do not reach a trade deal in the third quarter and aggregate demand for Oil continues falling as it tracks economic weaknesses in China and the US. As demand for Oil is whittled away, Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves may be negatively impacted, along with the Naira, the 2019 budget and most importantly GDP growth. In terms of the national budget sheet, expenses like the petrol subsidy may take the limelight as they drag on revenues, overshadowing growth and threatening fiscal stability.
There’s another factor we haven’t talked about so far but it’s significant in terms of Oil market economics. Oil sales are denominated in US Dollars. Recently, the currency has weakened against its rivals, meaning that Oil is more affordable and possibly giving traders an incentive to snap up contracts at current levels before they rise further. If the Dollar bears have their way and the currency keeps declining, Oil price benchmarks could see further support in the third quarter. The impact of a weaker USD might not be as strong as a US-China trade deal, but it could feed positively into Nigeria’s Oil revenues and go some way to counter possible losses from ongoing global recession fears.
To sum up, Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves, currency, growth and budget will face headwinds should trade disputes persist. However, provided the USD keeps weakening there’s scope for support from higher Oil prices based on bargain hunting. There’s always the possibility that the US and China could decide on a trade deal, if this happens sooner than later, Nigeria’s economy would benefit accordingly.
Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has waived the 2025 licence renewal fee for all bureaux de change (BDC) operators.
Jonah Onojah, director of the financial policy and regulation department, announced that the waiver took immediate effect.
“This is to inform all existing bureaux de change that further to the Regulatory and Supervisory Guidelines for Bureau De Change Operations in Nigeria, 2024, and the ongoing transition to the new BDC regulatory structure, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has approved the waiver of 2025 licence renewal fee, effective immediately,” the statement reads.
“Any bureau de change that has paid for 2025 licence renewal is hereby advised to apply to the Director, Financial Policy and Regulation Department, Central Bank of Nigeria for refund to its account from which the payment emanated.
“The CBN remains committed to fostering stability, transparency, and efficiency in the foreign exchange market while ensuring that operators align with the revised regulatory framework,” the statement said.
On May 22, 2024, CBN approved new guidelines for BDC operations to improve compliance and oversight.
In the guideline, CBN said all existing BDCs are to re-apply for a new licence according to any of the tiers or licence categories of their choice.
CBN said the guidelines are part of its efforts to re-position the BDC market to play its envisioned role in the foreign exchange market in Nigeria.
PalmPay, a Mobile Money Operator and digital payment platform has reaffirmed its role as a mobile payment provider, correcting the insinuation that it is a loan App.
Chika Nwosu, Chief Executive Officer, PalmPay, speaking at a press conference in Lagos clarified that PalmPay’s core mission is to provide seamless payment solutions and financial services, not to issue loans.
This clarification became necessary against erroneous messages in some social media platforms that the PalmPay is a loan App, as well as individuals wearing PalmPay-branded clothing allegedly been involved in arresting loan defaulters, raising concerns about the company’s role in debt recovery practices.
He explained that all lending activities on its platform are conducted by third-party financial institutions leveraging its ecosystem, not PalmPay itself.
“PalmPay is not a loan App. We provide a platform for third-party financial institutions to offer their services, including loans, to our users. These institutions operate independently and comply with all regulatory requirements,” Nwosu explained.
More so, Chika Nwosu identified smartphone penetration, internet connectivity and innovative technologies as key factors that are crucial to increased access to mobile money services in Nigeria.
According to him, with smartphone penetration projected to reach 65% by 2026 as well as improved internet infrastructure, more Nigerians will be enabled to access mobile money services.
He disclosed that, with fintech companies such as PalmPay evolving through digital wallets and seamless payment gateways, accessibility to mobile money service was bound to expand soon.
He emphasized that with demand for affordability of financial services growing, more opportunities would be unlocked for PalmPay in the nearest future.
“From under 10,000 agents in 2015 to over 1.5 million agents in 2023, agent networks have become the backbone of mobile money operations in Nigeria. For this reason, we are more likely to see a sharp increase in the number of mobile money agents and merchants. Apart from that, MMOs will increasingly use artificial intelligence to improve customer experiences, such as machine learning, predictive analytics, and fraud detection,” he said.
Donald Ubeh, Head, Risk and Compliance, MLRO at PalmPay, while highlighting the impact of fintech companies such as PalmPay, explained that the coming of PalmPay has led to economic empowerment particularly for individual users and several Small and Medium Scale enterprises.
He noted that many Nigerians including bank customers have migrated their funds to PalmPay owing to convenience and accessibility it provides.
He added that mobile money operators were conceived with the aim of driving financial inclusion for the underserved and unbanked population.
According to EFInA, increasing adoption of fintech companies by Nigerians has led to increase in financial inclusion rate by 13% in 13 years.
Moneipoint has denied reports that Moniepoint MFB, its microfinance bank, was hacked and some N1.1 billion allegedly stolen.
Moniepoint, in a blog post said that the report, which began on social media was malicious and misleading and should be ignored.
According to the company, the alleged theft gained traction on social media, alleging that the company is facing operational challenges due to the hack.
“We categorically state that these claims are untrue, and we urge the public to disregard them in their entirety.
Moniepoint MFB has always maintained the highest standards for digital security and customer fund protection.
It stated that as a duly authorised and licensed financial institution, customer deposits with Moniepoint MFB are insured by Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC), with the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) supervising and regulating its operations to ensure adherence to all applicable standards.
CBN Waives 2025 Licence Renewal Fee for Bureaux de Change Operators
Nvidia Loses over $500Bn in Market Value amid DeepSeek’s Rise
NCC, MCSN Collaborate on Copyright Enlightenment
PalmPay is not a Loan App, says MD
AfDB, World Bank Collaborate to Transform Africa’s Energy Access, Connect 300 million by 2030
A beginner’s guide to Temu: Your ultimate shopping companion
CBN, SEC Approve FCMB Group’s N147bn Rights Offer
CBN did not Force 1000 Workers to Resign- Cardoso
New WAEC Program Offers Faster Route for Students to Improve WASSCE Grades
Afrobeats and Amapiano Lead Africa’s Musical Revolution
E-Financial1 day agoMoniepoint MFB Says Rumours of N1.1Bn Theft by Hackers Malicious
General News1 day agoCourt Orders Arrest of Access Bank Acting MD, Others over Alleged Theft of Property
Telecom1 day agoSERAP Drags Tinubu, Others to Court over ”Arbitrary” Telecom Tariff Hike
E-Financial1 day agoWorld Bank Urges CBN to Sustain Inflation Control Measures
Telecom1 day agoFG, WIOCC Partner to Deliver Internet to 3m Homes with $10m Investment
E-Financial1 day agoZenith Bank Reinforces Commitment to Staff Wellbeing with Salary Hike and Promotions
E-Financial1 day agoSEC Warns against Transactions with Risevest, Stecs Cooperative Societies
News1 day agoARCON to Sanction Perpetrators of Misleading Adverts