E-Financial
Will Oil Prices Help or Harm Nigeria’s Economy in Q3?
By Lukman Otunuga, FXTM Research Analyst,
Global Oil prices looked tired, exhausted and ready for an early summer break during the second quarter of 2019 as global growth fears overshadowed supply disruptions and ongoing OPEC supply cuts. At the time of writing, Oil prices remain shaky and vulnerable despite OPEC+ latest decision to extend production cuts until March 2020.
The crucial question is whether Oil prices will ever recover and trade back towards the $70+ levels. That depends less on geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and more on whether the US and China can reach a trade deal, settling disputes over tariffs and opening the door to continued global growth. In this case, it’s likely that Oil prices will be injected with a renewed sense of confidence on the back of boosted global growth expectations and demand for Oil. But what if the current circumstances persist and the US-China trade disputes continue throughout the second half of 2019?
Taking each scenario one-by-one, starting with the upside for Oil prices, Nigeria’s economy could benefit considerably if a US-China trade deal is reached and global growth expectations become brighter. The manufacturing sectors in the US and China are the Oil-gobbling engines which drive demand for international Oil suppliers. China is the world’s top crude Oil consumer, importing more than 50 percent of its consumption, part of which comes from Nigeria. In the fourth quarter of 2018, Nigeria exported N23.5 billion worth of crude Oil to China and remains a major trading partner to the Asian giant. It’s likely that if China’s economy roars back to life, Nigeria’s growth would see more long-term support, benefiting foreign exchange reserves and the Naira. Although unlikely, if a trade deal were to be announced early in the quarter, it’s possible the nation’s 2019 budget would also see ample support from increased Oil revenues from China. This argument doesn’t apply to the US which has considerably reduced its crude Oil imports from Nigeria as it heads towards energy independence, relying instead on domestic production to meet its own needs.
If you take the negative outlook on Oil, it’s more likely the rise in Oil prices is a temporary result of supply shortage fears and the prevalent trend in Q3 will be downward pressure from concerns over a global recession. In this unfavorable scenario, the world’s two largest economies do not reach a trade deal in the third quarter and aggregate demand for Oil continues falling as it tracks economic weaknesses in China and the US. As demand for Oil is whittled away, Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves may be negatively impacted, along with the Naira, the 2019 budget and most importantly GDP growth. In terms of the national budget sheet, expenses like the petrol subsidy may take the limelight as they drag on revenues, overshadowing growth and threatening fiscal stability.
There’s another factor we haven’t talked about so far but it’s significant in terms of Oil market economics. Oil sales are denominated in US Dollars. Recently, the currency has weakened against its rivals, meaning that Oil is more affordable and possibly giving traders an incentive to snap up contracts at current levels before they rise further. If the Dollar bears have their way and the currency keeps declining, Oil price benchmarks could see further support in the third quarter. The impact of a weaker USD might not be as strong as a US-China trade deal, but it could feed positively into Nigeria’s Oil revenues and go some way to counter possible losses from ongoing global recession fears.
To sum up, Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves, currency, growth and budget will face headwinds should trade disputes persist. However, provided the USD keeps weakening there’s scope for support from higher Oil prices based on bargain hunting. There’s always the possibility that the US and China could decide on a trade deal, if this happens sooner than later, Nigeria’s economy would benefit accordingly.
E-Financial
Cybersecurity Expert Raises Alarm, Warns against Use ATM Card PIN for Online Transactions
Dr. Kingsley Chibuzor Aguoru, a Nigerian-British Chartered Engineer and Doctor of Information Security, has petitioned the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to immediately put a halt to card PIN usage for online payments to protect Nigerians from being fleeced of their hard earned money.
He said he was making the passionate appeal in order to secure financial practices in the country.
According to the UK based chartered Engineer, with his over 20 years of experience in financial technologies and security, who pioneered the concept of OTPs for card-not-payments, he was compelled to bring attention to the critical flaws in the Nigeria’s current online card payment practices, which exposes customers to unnecessary risks and significant danger.
Specifically, according to Aguoru, the continued use of PIN in online transactions put Nigerians at a grave risk of being defrauded.
Aguoru noted that card PINs were designed for face-to-face transactions at ATMs and POS terminals where secure encryption methods protect users rather than online usage.
In the petition cited by this paper, titled: “Urgent Call to Ban Card PIN Usage for Online Payments in Nigeria”, Dr. Aguoru explained: “In 2005, I developed a solution to tackle prevalent fraud in card-not-present transactions in the United Kingdom using both online and offline OTP models, drawing on Cartesian geometry. Although major networks like Visa and Mastercard declined the innovation at the time, my OTP model has since become a standard worldwide for authorization.
”Nigerian payment providers, such as Paystack and Flutterwave, and Interswitch still require card PINs for online card transactions, a practice virtually obsolete elsewhere or not ever used. Card PINs are designed for face-to-face transactions at ATMs and POS terminals, where secure encryption methods protect users. Using them online exposes consumers to serious cyber risks, including phishing, keylogger, man-in-the-middle attacks, even some dubious staff at the payment provider company can misuse customer’s PIN captured on the internet.”
He continued: “Nigerians are already familiar with OTPs for securing online transactions. However, it is critical to understand that OTPs should never be combined with Card PINs in an online setting. Instead, global best practices require using OTPs or Multi-Factor Authentication alone for online payments, which adds a secure layer of protection, an alternative to using card PINs online is to issue hardware card readers. With these devices, customers would simply insert their card, enter their PIN directly on the reader, and receive a generated OTP, keeping the entire process offline and secure.”
Enumerating the role of CBN in financial matters in the present digital age, Dr. Aguoru called on the apex financial regulator to protect consumers from cyber vulnerabilities. “I respectfully call on the CBN to address these issues head-on by prohibiting web PIN entry for card payments and enforcing OTP or MFA requirements across all payment providers.”
He advised the CBN to urgently steps forward for the safety of Nigerian cardholders by banning the use of card pins for online transactions and mandate the use of OTPs or other dynamic authentication methods, such as authorization through mobile banking apps.
He noted that there was need for consumers to be educated on safe online payments practice to minimize exposure to phishing and other cyber threats.
He said it was also necessary for the apex bank to enforce industry wide compliance with modern security standards to protect Nigerian customers, especially on the web, through policies, such as security, payments compliance policies.
Aguoru emphasized that by adopting these measures, the CBN will greatly reduce the risks Nigerian consumers face and bring the nation’s payment systems in with international best practice.
E-Financial
MoneyMaster PSB Customers to Enjoy 10% Data Bonus Per Recharge
Customers of foremost payment service bank, MoneyMaster Payment Service Bank (MMPSB), will henceforth, enjoy a 10 percent data bonus offer on every recharge above N1,000 on their Glo lines.
The data bundle offers one of the highest volumes in the country and the data purchases come with 30-day validity, with an automatic rollover of unused data upon subscription for a new plan.
The offer, which is meant to reward loyal customers and new ones, also underscores the bank’s dedication to empowering Nigerians to master their money via efficient offers that make every naira count.
The 10 percent bonus offer is available for Glo customers on banking channels including the MoneyMaster PSB app, USSD banking code *995# and MoneyMaster PSB Web banking.
MoneyMaster is a provider of innovative digital financial products and services that transform lives. It has the mission to deepen financial inclusion and has been pivotal in providing financial technology services to bridge the gaps between the banked, underbanked and unbanked population.
Mr. Julius Arhebun, head of Agency Banking at MoneyMaster, said, the offer shows the bank’s commitment to offering its customers products that enhance their lifestyle and help them master their money.
“With this offer, our existing and new customers can enjoy extended access to quality internet services whether it is streaming their favourite content, browsing top sites, or catching up on trends on their favourite social media apps”, he noted.
He further explained that existing customers can buy a data bundle of N1000 or above from their mobile wallets, savings account or individual current account via our USSD banking code *995#, mobile app or web banking. For new customers, the offer comes via opening accounts via the USSD banking platform or downloading the mobile application.
E-Financial
UBA Set to Establish Subsidiary in Saudi Arabia
United Bank for Africa (UBA) Plc, Africa’s Global Bank, has set the wheels in motion to expand its operations in the Middle East with plan ongoing to open a subsidiary in Saudi Arabia, its largest economy.
This move which is expected to happen within the next year will mark the bank’s second subsidiary in the Gulf Region, following the expansion of its business to the United Arab Emirates in 2022.
Muyiwa Akinyemi, group deputy managing director, UBA, who disclosed this during a panel session during the 8th Edition of the Future Investment Initiative (FII) in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia and in an interview with Arise TV, underscored the bank’s strategic commitment towards fostering Africa’s growth through infrastructure development, youth empowerment, and sustainable partnerships across key global markets.
He said, “Opening a presence in Saudi Arabia represents the next step for us in connecting the Africa-Gulf region. We are excited to bring UBA’s expertise in financial services to Saudi Arabia, where we aim to facilitate knowledge transfer and create strong economic linkages.
“This venture will further enable us to access Saudi expertise in food security, energy transition, and sustainable practices, which are all critical for Africa’s continued development.”
While emphasising the importance of Africa as a strategic investment destination for long-term capital, he said, “Africa’s infrastructure deficit is an opportunity for investors worldwide. Our pitch to the Gulf and Southeast Asia emphasizes that Africa must be part of their investment horizon. Today, food security is paramount as our population expands.
Akinyemi also highlighted the bank’s dedication to nurturing Africa’s youth talent through entrepreneurship.
“Guided by our Group Chairman’s efforts with the Tony Elumelu Foundation, UBA is committed to supporting young entrepreneurs in tech, agriculture, and entertainment, which are all burgeoning sectors in Africa. With such a young and dynamic population, we see enormous potential for innovation and growth.”
He also reiterated the bank’s continuous support for Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) in Africa and beyond as he outlined the bank’s commitment to these businesses, which he referred to as key players in the African economy and vehicles for employment and economic growth.
“SMEs are the backbone of economic development in Africa. They contribute significantly to job creation and value chains, particularly within Nigeria. Over the last year, UBA has committed billions to support SMEs across Africa, and our network of over 20 countries enables us to make a substantial impact.”
During the panel discussions, Akinyemi took time to emphasize UBA’s longstanding experience on the continent as it navigates an ever-evolving investment landscape, adding that “As investors, we focus on infrastructure and sustainable projects that encourage economic prosperity while addressing pressing issues such as talent migration.
“Our goal is to ensure that people can thrive in Africa without needing to relocate. By investing in local talent and fostering growth sectors, we contribute to building the next generation of global innovators right here in Africa,” he noted.
The DMD further articulated UBA’s approach to risk management on the continent, emphasizing that the bank’s 75-year history has uniquely equipped it with insights and strategies to navigate diverse markets.
“With over seven decades of experience, Africa is what we know, and that knowledge allows us to manage risks effectively. We see tremendous opportunities in various sectors across the continent, and our continued investments are driven by a commitment to bring economic empowerment to communities, increase GDP, and improve socioeconomic quality. Our anniversary is a celebration of UBA’s legacy of contributing to Africa’s progress. We look forward to leveraging this milestone to drive even greater impact across sectors and empower future generations,” he said.
United Bank for Africa Plc is a leading Pan-African financial institution, offering banking services to more than forty-five million customers, across 1,000 business offices and customer touch points in 20 African countries. With presence in New York, London, Paris and Dubai, UBA is connecting people and businesses across Africa through retail, commercial and corporate banking, innovative cross-border payments and remittances, trade finance and ancillary banking services.
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