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CBN Rate Cut on the Horizon as Inflation Slows to 12-Month Low
By Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst, FXTM
The latest inflation figures from the Nigerian economy are certainly good news for the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the economy as a whole.
Inflation in Africa’s largest economy dropped to its lowest in a year at 11.1% last month as food prices and services reduced in July compared to June. Further signs of inflation cooling during the third and fourth quarter of 2019 should present the CBN an opportunity to re-join the global easing bandwagon – ultimately supporting domestic economic growth. While the exact timings of the rate cut remain uncertain, it now remains a matter or when rather than if. Lower rates in Nigeria have the potential to stimulate consumption which accounts for roughly 80% of GDP.
Markets search for stability as we head into the weekend
It has been a rollercoaster trading week defined by heightened trade uncertainty, yield curve inversions and global recession fears.
The “risk off, risk on” pendulum swung back and forth as investors grappled with conflicting signals on the US-China trade front, disappointing economic data from China and Germany and depressed oil prices.
Some semblance of stability is returning to Asian markets on Friday after China hinted at more fiscal support for its economy. While European markets are set to open cautiously higher as investors closely monitor the Treasury yields, gains may be limited by the general unease and uncertainty which is shrouding financial markets.
All eyes remain on the yield curve…
History was made this week after the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond fell below 2% for the first time ever.
Market players offloaded riskier assets like a hot potato and rushed to perceived safe havens like bonds and Gold as trade tensions and global growth fears promoted risk aversion. Although treasury yields are climbing away from record lows on Friday as some tranquillity returns to markets, the movements in the bond markets are poised to remain on investors radars in the week ahead.
Dollar maintains grip on iron throne
King Dollar has appreciated against almost every single G10 currency this week excluding the British Pound and Australian Dollar.
The Dollar’s positive performance suggests that it is still viewed as a destination of safety amid trade disputes, geopolitical tensions and global growth concerns. Appetite towards the Greenback was sweetened further on Thursday after US retail sales jumped by 0.7% in July, which eased concerns about the health of the US economy. I expect the Dollar Index to push higher based on price action, as the economic calendar for the United States is void of Tier 1 economic releases on Friday.
In regards to the technical picture, the Dollar Index is bullish on the daily charts. The intraday breakout above 98.20 should encourage a move higher towards 98.40.
Commodity spotlight – Gold
Gold prices depreciated slightly on Friday morning but were headed for a third consecutive weekly gain thanks to global recession fears, uncertainty over US-China trade developments and falling US bond yields.
Gold bulls remain firmly in the driver’s seat and are set to switch into higher gear as geopolitical risk factors and lower interest rates across the globe send investors stampeding towards the precious metal. Focusing on the technical picture, Gold is heavily bullish on the weekly charts as there have been consistently higher highs and higher lows.
A weekly close above $1500 should open the doors towards $1535 and $1550, respectively.
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NCAA Enforces Penalties on Five Airlines for Passenger Rights Violations
Nigeria Civil Aviation Authority (NCAA) has taken enforcement action against five airlines—two international and three domestic operators—for violations of Part 19 of NCAA Regulations 2023.
These breaches include failing to refund passengers within the stipulated timeframe, disregarding directives from the authority, mishandling luggage, issues with short-landed baggage, and problems related to flight delays and cancellations.
Michael Achimugu, NCAA’s director of public affairs and consumer protection, confirmed the development on Tuesday but declined to disclose the names of the sanctioned airlines.
Achimugu explained that while airlines are not always at fault for flight disruptions, NCAA regulations mandate specific actions they must undertake during such instances. Failure to comply with these directives results in penalties of varying severity.
Achimugu highlighted an uptick in passenger complaints about delays and cancellations, particularly during the festive season, with some disruptions attributed to harmattan-induced poor visibility.
“We all know that this is harmattan season, so there is poor visibility. Flights must get cancelled. This is force majeure, and the airlines do not owe passengers anything in those instances.
“The enforcement we are initiating today is on cases where the airline is deemed to have been at fault. More will come,” he said.
The NCAA plans to summon the chief executive officers (CEOs) of all airlines this week for a meeting to address flight disruptions and regulatory breaches.
Earlier, on December 10, the NCAA announced its intent to sanction airlines for delayed ticket refunds. Under Part 19 of the NCAA Regulations 2023, airlines are required to strictly adhere to refund timelines to protect passenger rights. Refunds for cash purchases must be made immediately and in cash, while electronic payments, including mobile apps and internet banking, must be refunded within 14 days.
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Firm Partners Access Bank to Train Youths in Digital Skills
NerdzFactory Foundation in collaboration with the Access Bank, has trained over 518 youths in digital skills. The two weeks virtual training, Youth Transition Program (YTP) 5.0, was meant to equip the youths for employment and digital skills and prepare them to excel in the competitive job market and unlock new economic opportunities.
Director of NerdzFactory Foundation, Ade Olowojoba, said the significance of the programme reflects the foundation’s mission to empower a new generation of leaders with the skills needed to thrive in an increasingly dynamic and digital global economy.
“Through initiatives like this, we are fostering innovation, resilience, and economic independence among young Nigerians,” he stated.
He disclosed that the programme succeeded in reaching its objectives. According to him, participants reported increased readiness for the workforce, improved digital skills, and enhanced entrepreneurial capabilities, which have positioned them to secure quality employment and launch their ventures. The programme has demonstrated the transformative impact of focused skill-building initiatives.
“NerdzFactory Foundation and Access Bank reaffirm their commitment to expand the reach of the Youth Transition Programme to empower more young Nigerians with the tools they need to achieve lasting success and contribute to Nigeria’s sustainable economic development,” he said.
The director noted that the programme launched in response to Nigeria’s high unemployment rate, delivered comprehensive training to empower participants with practical job search skills, digital marketing expertise, and knowledge of leveraging digital platforms for economic growth.
During the programme, some of the sessions included webinars and a virtual bootcamp designed to help participants develop workplace skills such as CV writing, LinkedIn optimisation, and effective use of digital workspace tools.
“By fostering economic independence and resilience, YTP 5.0 aligns with the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals, particularly Goal 4, on quality education and Goal 8, on decent work and economic growth,” he stated.
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Afreximbank and Ecobank Join Forces to Boost Trade and Compliance Across Africa
African Export-Import Bank and Ecobank Group have embarked on a collaboration aimed at simplifying trade and compliance for businesses in Africa by integrating Ecobank’s Single Market Trade Hub and Afreximbank’s MANSA Digital Repository Platform.
With the collaboration, African businesses will benefit from seamless shared services across the two platforms, with users of the Single Market Trade Hub able to easily leverage MANSA’s comprehensive database for efficient know-thy-customer (KYC) and customer due diligence (CDD) checks while MANSA platform users would, in turn, be able to directly connect to the Single Market Trade Hub to explore trade opportunities to expand their businesses across Africa.
The Ecobank Single Market Trade Hub connects registered businesses across Africa on a single platform, helping them benefit from opportunities in the unified market of 1.4 billion people created by the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA).
It serves as a one-stop repository for the AfCFTA by providing small and medium-scale enterprises (SMEs) and corporates with insights about the agreement while its online match-making feature enables importers and exporters to upload their profiles and showcase goods and services they offer, or wish to source, with the aim of finding partners within Africa.
Once a match is found, connections are made via the platform and the transaction can be concluded leveraging on Ecobank’s trade and payment solutions in 35 African markets.
The MANSA Digital Repository Platform, or MANSA, is a one-stop-shop for due diligence matters on all African entities. As a centralised digital repository, MANSA seeks to eliminate information asymmetry and to increase intra-African trade and trade with the rest of the world.
It drives and promotes good governance culture among African SMEs and creates visibility for their businesses while also supporting African entities to expand, diversify and add value to their export products at both the local and international levels. Entities onboarded unto MANSA are allotted an Africa Entity Identifier (AEI) code which enables them to leverage other Afreximbank products and initiatives.
MANSA is also a key digital solution at the Africa Trade Gateway (ATG) marketplace which houses a suite of digital platforms designed as a single window to enable Afreximbank better deliver on its mandate, providing critical services to support and promote intra-African trade and the implementation of the AfCFTA. The platform enables African entities to accelerate their business activities at the ATG marketplace by working with verified information on trusted counterparties.
The new collaboration is, therefore, enabling Ecobank and Afreximbank to provide a central solution to the key challenge of KYC compliance and access to business across 35 countries in Africa. The improved interoperability is expected to further streamline cross-border trade and compliance in Africa, fostering greater financial and economic integration on the continent.
Afreximbank is a pan-African multilateral financial institution established to finance and promote intra- and extra-African trade.
Ecobank Group is a leading private pan-African banking group with unrivalled African expertise.
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