N12trillion Premium Projection by 2020 - How feasible?

Can the Nigerian insurance industry achieve the projected N12trillion premium base by the year 2020?  This is the million dollar question agitating the minds of stakeholders as industry performance indicators unfold.
Industry watchers believe that the very tall dream is realizable if the building blocks envisaged by experts are well positioned.  The Nigerian Insurers Association (NIA) under the Finance Sector Strategies (FSS) Committee set an N12trillion premium target for itself by 2020.  But a school of thought opined that the projection is a mere wishful thinking.
Optimists are of the view that given the nation’s population of over 140million and the full implementation of compulsory insurance, the task is easy.  Official position of the Nigerian Insurance Association corroborated this.  This report stressed that this can be achieve if “compulsory insurances are comprehensively implemented, as well as development of the mortgage market which is projected to be capable of generating about N1trillion by 2020”.
The projection is also anchored on the benefits derivable from the fast-growing credit market, Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) housing sector development etc,
Proponents of this target hinged their optimism on the support of allied industries such as banking, mortgage and credit markets, telecommunication and education.
Yet, others hold a contrary view.  They believe that the projection may be a mirage going by penchant of Nigerian leaders to discard policies enunciated by successive government.
According to Alhaji Bala Zakariya, chairman, Finance Service Sector (FSS) Insurance Sector Reforms Implementation Committee, this project is realizable.  But it is subject to meeting other challenges.
He explained that the industry must continue to subject itself to further structural reforms as well as adhering to the ideas that are enunciated in the sector reforms document.
Zakariya further based his optimism on the encouraging growth rate of the industry. For instance, the industry generated N70.32billion premium income in 2005.  This placed it in the 65th position in the world insurance market and 6th out of 8 leading insurance markets in Africa.
Also, the premium base as at 2007 grew to N100.6billion, an increase of over 100 percent within three years.  The estimation is that N1trillion could be generated within the next 12 years through compulsory insurance...Also N2 trillion could come from the compulsory group life insurance and annuity, motor vehicles and professional indemnity. It is estimated that about N0.5trillion would come from local retention of oil and gas, aviation, marine, hull and solid minerals.
The committee’s projection is also built around generating N2trillion through the compulsory pension, N3trilion from the Nation Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS). Yet, another N2trilion could come from property, casualty and liability from government both in terms of corporate and domestic.
What gives credence to this projection is that the industry has been having a rising profile in recent time.As a result of the injection of fresh funds during the recapitalization exercise, the sector capitalization increased from less than N200bilion in 2007 to over N670billion at the peak of 2008 and rose further through private placement to well over N20billion for some insurers.
According to reports released by the NIA, “it is estimated that the volume of business written by insurance companies which grew from N100.6billion in 2007 to about N164.5billion in 2008 may double within a short time frame especially going by the performance indicators of 2009.
This represents an estimated increase of 63.5percent.  The reports added that there has been a steady increase in claims payment which stood at N53.3billion during the period under review.