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Nigeria Economic Outlook Threatened by Coronavirus Outbreak

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By Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM,

The dramatic and fast-moving consequences of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak threaten an otherwise resilient outlook for Nigeria’s economy, following GDP results for Q4 showing an expansion of 2.55 percent. The growth was the highest seen since 2015 and above the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) 2.1 percent forecast.

The economy is supported by the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) policies to boost credit growth like hiking the loan-to-deposit ratio and other monetary policy tools. On top of that, Oil production increased to two million barrels per day amid recovering global Oil prices versus 1.0 million bpd in Q3.

However, since then, risks to the economy have multiplied.

Like many other economies at the time of writing, Nigeria is vulnerable to the spread of the COVID-19 virus in economic and health terms because one of its main trading partners is the epidemic’s epicenter China. For the time being, the sizable manufacturing sector in China has been slowed by large-scale workforce disruptions and it is expected that GDP growth for the quarter will be pressured amid a fall in business confidence.

While it is too early to tell the precise extent of the slowdown, the impact on the supply chain and trading with China’s trading partners is already evident. Nigeria’s crude Oil exports to China fell in February amid weaker Oil prices as the outlook for global Oil demand weakens.

Nigeria’s Q1 GDP remains exposed to external uncertainties in the form of weaker Oil prices, the coronavirus COVID-10 outbreak, slowing growth in China and the global economy.

Focusing on the global coronavirus outbreak, so far there are over 83,000 confirmed cases with over 2800 deaths. The World Health Organisation (WHO) has identified Nigeria as one of its top 13 priority countries because of the direct links and travel volume to-and-from China. It is positive that Nigeria’s authorities are taking measures to stop the virus spreading, but the risks remain.

Since the onset of the virus outbreak early in the year, Oil prices have slipped over 15 percent amid demand-side concerns, the USD has appreciated against G10 and emerging market currencies against a background of risk aversion and Gold has jumped to fresh seven-year highs.

If it continues to spread, the virus outbreak and subsequent slump in demand from China present major risks to the Nigerian economy. Crude Oil revenues account for less than 10 percent of GDP but remain the biggest source of foreign exchange for the nation, 90 percent of export sales over 50 percent of government revenues.

Falling Oil prices would reduce foreign exchange reserves and ultimately complicate the CBN’s efforts to defend the Naira, meaning potentially heightened pressures on inflation and consumption with an eventual impact on growth. Lower Oil prices also impact the 2020 budget which was based on 2.18 million bpd at an Oil price benchmark of $57 per barrel.

Moreover, China is one of Nigeria’s biggest trading partners with total trade flows in Q3 2019 worth over $3.2 billion. It is important for the economy for the virus outbreak to be brought under control because if trade flows decline on the back of slowing growth in China, the impacts are likely to be felt in Nigeria.

The situation may prompt a greater focus on monetary and fiscal policy to shield the economy from external risks. The CBN meet in March but the economy remains under inflationary pressure so it is unlikely we’ll see an interest rate cut. Instead, the central bank may implement more unconventional tools to stimulate the economy.

Finally, it is even more clear that diversification is the key to reducing Nigeria’s reliance on Oil revenues and reducing the risks to growth. On the upside, there is still a possibility that the virus outbreak will be brought under control, meaning a return to full power for China and Asia and a relief to health authorities and policy makers in Nigeria and other countries.


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Ugo Onwuaso is an ICT enthusiast. He believes technology should be used for general good. He holds a Master of Public Administration (MPA) degree from the Lagos state University. Dear Reader, Your support matters. But we believe that technology makes life more exciting and helps improve the lives of people around Nigeria and indeed the world. That is why, we have devoted our energy to independent reportage of technology and finance and how they affect lives. Our incisive and analytical view of how technology news affects the daily life help individuals and organizations make up their minds. Quality journalism costs money. Today, we're asking that you support us to do more. Kindly support our effort to deliver technology and finance journalism to everyone in the world. Donate as little as N1,000. Bank transfers can be made to: UBA Plc 1017156876 Communication Week Media Ltd

General News

Government, Development Industries Report Threefold Decrease in Critical Cyber Incidents in 2024

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According to the latest Kaspersky Managed Detection and Response (MDR) analyst report, government and development industries experienced a significant decrease in the number of high-severity incidents with direct human involvement in 2024, whereas the food, IT, telecom and industrial sectors demonstrated an increase.

The annual Managed Detection and Response (MDR) analyst report provides insights into detected incidents, their nature and their distribution across various industries and geographic regions.

Additionally, it emphasises the most common tactics, techniques and tools used by attackers over the previous year. The data is based on analysis of incidents detected by Kaspersky MDR.

Compared to 2023, the mass media, development and telecoms industries experienced a significant increase in the number of incidents.

However, when examining high-severity incidents – those that feature direct human involvement – the distribution reveals notable differences.

In 2024, the MDR team identified that the majority of high-severity incidents occurred in IT (23%), followed by the government (18%) and industrial sectors (18%).

The report highlights a significant decrease in high-severity incidents within the government and development sectors, while the number of such incidents in the food sector increased.

Additionally, a relatively large rise was observed in the industrial sector, alongside a slight increase in retail, IT and telecoms. Interestingly, despite the mass media sector facing a substantial increase in overall incidents, this trend did not translate into a corresponding rise in high-severity incidents.

This observation shows that many attack attempts were swiftly detected and mitigated, effectively preventing their severity from escalating beyond medium levels.

“In 2024, we revealed a shift in the landscape of cyber threats, with high-severity incidents increasingly concentrated in the food sector, underscoring the necessity for cybersecurity measures in this area.

While the overall number of incidents surged in sectors like telecom and mass media, the resilience demonstrated in swiftly detecting and neutralising potential threats highlights the importance of proactive measures.

As attackers refine their tactics, organisations must adapt by investing in robust cybersecurity solutions that combine advanced technologies with expert oversight,” comments Sergey Soldatov, Head of Security Operations Center at Kaspersky.

To strengthen your company’s protection against sophisticated attacks, deploy robust cybersecurity solutions and hire qualified practitioners to manage them or adopt managed security services such as Managed Detection and Response and Incident Response.

These security services encompass the complete incident management cycle from threat identification to continuous protection and remediation. They assist in safeguarding against evasive cyberattacks, investigating incidents and offering expert support even if a company lacks security workers.

 


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Ghana Shines as Host of QNET’s Groundbreaking V-Africa 2025 Event

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Ghana took center stage as the host of QNET’s highly anticipated V-Africa 2025, a regional edition of the company’s flagship convention.

From February 20 to 23, 2025, the Accra International Conference Centre welcomed over 4000 participants from across the Sub-Saharan Africa region to experience four days of empowerment, networking, and innovation.

The convention spotlighted QNET’s exclusive product offerings, which provide immersive entrepreneurship training and contribute significantly to Ghana’s tourism and economic growth. V-Africa 2025 showcased Ghana as a hub for entrepreneurial excellence.

Trevor Kuna, Chief Marketing Officer for QNET, expressed his enthusiasm: “Hosting V-Africa 2025 in Ghana is a testament to our commitment to supporting entrepreneurs in Africa.

This event isn’t just about showcasing our brand—it’s about empowering individuals to achieve their dreams while contributing meaningfully to local economies. We look forward to welcoming media representatives to witness QNET’s transformative impact firsthand.”

Empowering Entrepreneurs, Celebrating Culture

The itinerary for V-Africa 2025 included product workshops, dynamic training sessions on business building and entrepreneurship, and an exhibition featuring QNET’s signature product brands, such as HomePure range of home care products, Amezcua’s wellness range, Swiss watch brand Bernhard H. Mayer’s new Collection, and more.

Attendees gained invaluable insights into QNET’s ethos of wellness, sustainability, and entrepreneurship, setting the stage for lasting business growth.

Biram Fall, QNET’s Regional General Manager for sub-Saharan Africa, elaborated on the event’s local significance: “V-Africa 2025 will leave a lasting legacy by empowering Ghanaian entrepreneurs and supporting Ghana’s tourism industry.

“This is more than a business convention—it’s a platform for connection, growth, and transformation.”

Driving Tourism and Economic Growth

As one of the largest events of its kind in Ghana, V-Africa 2025 attracted participants from 25 countries, providing a boost to the local hospitality, transportation, and tourism sectors.

QNET’s commitment to Ghana includes partnering with local stakeholders to ensure the event delivers long-term benefits to the community.


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FlashChange CEO Seeks Regulatory Clarity in the Blockchain and Cryptocurrency Industry

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L-r: Chief Executive Officer, FlashChange, Bidemi Oke; Chief Executive Officer, Eventhive and convener of Lagos Tech Fest, Jamiu Ijaodola; Head, Corporate Communications, FlashChange, Ememobong Udofot and Chief Marketing Officer, FlashChange, Jesujoba Ojelabi, during the Lagos Tech Fest event held recently in Lagos.
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FlashChange, a forward-thinking financial service company that is redefining how digital assets are traded and managed has recently participated at the Lagos Tech Fest, a two-day event that brought together key stakeholders, industry leaders, and tech enthusiasts to discuss the future of technology in Africa.

The CEO of FlashChange, Bidemi Oke made a strong argument for more transparent regulations in the blockchain and cryptocurrency industry at the event, where he stressed the necessity of structured legislation to promote innovation, safeguard investors, and propel economic progress.

Speaking during a panel discussion alongside other panelists on Crypto in Nigeria: Fintech Integration, Real-World Applications and Opportunities, Oke emphasised the difficulties companies encounter because of legislative ambiguity. He urged legislators to work with industry players to create rules that promote responsible expansion while guarding against abuse.

“The potential for blockchain and cryptocurrencies to transform finance and promote financial inclusion throughout Africa is enormous. However, companies and investors continue to have doubts about the industry’s future in the absence of clear regulations. We must develop a framework that strikes a balance between innovation and consumer protection,” Oke remarked.

As one of Nigeria’s top cryptocurrency exchange platforms, FlashChange, has been leading the charge to encourage secure and effective digital asset transactions. While maintaining adherence to international standards, the business keeps pushing for laws that encourage the expansion of the sector.

The Lagos Tech Fest provided a forum for thought-provoking conversations about how technology, finance, and regulation interact in Nigeria. Many industry participants who agreed that a methodical and forward-thinking approach to blockchain governance was necessary found resonance in Oke’s support for regulatory clarification.

 


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