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Nigeria’s economic recovery poised to build momentum in Q2

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by Lukman Otunuga

Market optimism over the recovery of Africa’s largest economy has increased steadily throughout the first trading quarter of 2018.

 

The combination of appreciating oil prices, foreign exchange stability and easing inflationary pressure has boosted confidence in Nigeria’s economy. With the nation’s GDP hitting 0.82% in 2017 and predicted to register a positive trajectory amid strengthening domestic demand, the outlook continues to look highly encouraging. The improving macroeconomic conditions and ongoing efforts to diversify away from oil reliance are likely to attract foreign investors, further fueling economic growth.

 

It is fair to suggest that Nigeria’s stabilizing fundamentals may encourage the Central Bank of Nigeria to cut interest rates sooner than anticipated. With oil prices appreciating, domestic production improving and foreign exchange reserves rising to $46 billion, most of the ingredients are in place for the CBN to act. There is a strong suspicion that inflationary pressures need to ease further into the realm of single digits before the central bank loosens its monetary policy. An interest rate cut has the ability to stimulate the current recovery because it encourages consumer borrowing and businesses to increase investments. While an interest rate cut in April may be slightly premature, the CBN could surprise markets near at the end of Q3 if inflation continues to decline.

 

Although domestic economic conditions continue to improve, investors must not overlook external risks that may impact Nigeria’s current recovery. Oil price volatility remains a key risk for Nigeria despite the nation’s ongoing efforts to diversifying to other sustainable sources of growth. With Oil accounting for roughly 90% of exports and 80% of public revenues, a sharp depreciation in prices could easily spell trouble for Nigeria. While WTI Crude has followed a positive trajectory in recent months amid expectations of demand increasing and optimism over OPEC’s production cuts, the upside may face headwinds. It must be kept in mind that soaring production from U.S Shale remains a threat to higher oil prices and is likely to result in a selloff medium to longer term. While Nigeria could continue enjoying the benefits of oil trading around $64, the clock is ticking as oversupply remains a market theme.

 

In addition to oil prices, attention should also be focused towards the Dollar’s performance and US rate hike expectations. Higher US interest rates have the ability to trigger capital outflows from Emerging markets and weaken EM currencies with the Naira falling into the category. While the Naira may be slightly bruised by capital flight in the event of higher US interest rates, Nigeria’s rising foreign exchange reserves and rising oil prices could cushion the impact. The Naira witnessed stability against the Dollar in March with prices trading around 360N on the parallel markets and 304N on the official market. While the local currency’s appreciation may be attributed to intervention by the CBN, the improving sentiment towards Nigeria has also played a leading role.

 

The ongoing trade drama between the United States and China is unlikely to have a direct impact on Nigeria’s economy. Indirectly, the uncertainty and anxiety over a potential global trade war could spark risk aversion consequently impacting Emerging markets like Nigeria. A scenario where foreign investors remain guarded and maintain a safe distance from risk, could weigh on Nigeria in the recovery stages.

 

As we enter the second quarter of 2018, much focus will be directed towards domestic monetary policy, inflation and external risks that could impact Nigeria’s positive momentum. Easing inflationary pressures remain one of the most encouraging aspects for Nigeria as consumer prices hit $14.33 in February. Not only will falling inflation boost the rate of return for savers and increase disposable income in Nigeria, it creates an opportunity for the CBN to cut interest rates- ultimately stimulating economic growth.


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E-Financial

EFCC Says Nigerian Banks are Notorious Conduits of Financial Crimes

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Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) has warned banks against making themselves available as instruments of fraud.

EFCC Says Nigerian Banks are Notorious Conduits of Financial Crimes

Ola Olukoyede, charman, EFCC, issued the warning on Friday when the management team of Moniepoint, led by Tosin Eniolorunda, its founder and Group CEO, paid a courtesy visit to the commission’s headquarters in Abuja.

Speaking through Michael Nzekwe, his chief of staff, the EFCC boss noted that Nigerian banks over the years have become notorious as conduits of financial crimes and advised them to turn a new leaf for the sake of the growth of the country.

“There’s hardly any financial crime that would not go through the financial institutions. Money laundering is a major issue and you find out also that the perpetrators go through the banks. Nigeria will be the greatest beneficiary when we do the right thing,” he said.

Addressing the Moniepoint delegation, Olukoyede said, “Try as much as possible on your own to avoid any form of connivance and don’t be a channel for money

“Don’t be a tool. Don’t make your system porous. You are a major stakeholder when it comes to the fight against corruption. We are open and would assist, however we can. No one is above the law”.

Olukoyede observed that there was a high level of poor internal control by fintechs at the level of the unbanked, the under-served and the middle class population spectrum.

“There’s quite a whole lot of fraud that goes around that particular level, so the issue of KYC (Know Your Customer) is very important, especially because of the issue of how fintechs open tier-one accounts, sometimes without attention to KYC.

“And people take advantage of this and are quick to commit fraud through this negligence. So, that’s one area you have to also look at to see how you can improve on your KYC.

“Increasing your level of collaboration with the EFCC would mean to see yourselves as stakeholders in the fight against corruption.

“We would like you to be able to respond to us when we make inquiries and when we make requests.

On EFCC’s readiness to collaborate with Moniepoint, Olukoyede stated that, “On our part, we are open to whatever it is that you want us to do. We value it that you are here today to seek a stronger tie and collaboration.

“When we have stakeholders come in and want to be part of what we are doing, majorly stakeholders like you, it gives us joy because we know that no one man can fight corruption alone.

“The collaboration you seek tells us that you want to strengthen your system; you want to be able to create more internal controls. You want to be able to put in place things that will mitigate those weaknesses that will lead to fraud within your system, that’s what we do. Our core mandate is enforcement and investigation of economic and financial crimes. So, we’re glad and wish to collaborate with you”

Earlier in his remarks, Eniolorunda noted that the expansion in the operations and services of the fintech and microfinance company have come with challenges which have made the need for a strategic collaboration with the EFCC compelling.

“Moniepoint has over the years grown to become one of Nigeria’s largest payment service providers and the bank for mostly mid-class businesses and the under-served.

“Today, Moniepoint processes roughly 70% of Nigeria’s payments on Point-of-Sale (PoS) and transfers. We are present also in the UK and we are going through some potential set-up also in Kenya, which is at an advanced stage with its Central Bank. And also in Tanzania.

“Of course, with all this growth comes also challenges. One of the biggest challenges is the nature of our country, where if people find the opportunity to make fast money, they will make fast money. And we have realised that as Moniepoint is helping people make ends meet, these sorts of people are also trying to use Moniepoint channels to achieve their criminal objectives.

“So, we are actively fighting, improving all the necessary KYC accounts, money laundering and fund protection systems, but we know that we can’t do this alone. There are experts in a government organisation like the EFCC that we believe we need to have a strategic relationship with to be able to fight these people together.

“There are intels that you see that we don’t see. There are many things that come across your desk, every day that we don’t see. There are also things that we see that we think that if we should show to you, we will all be able to come together and fight these bad guys. We have, over the years improved on many things; discover a lot of potential fraud, collaborated with law enforcement agencies.

“With our whole management team, we will be able to find a strategic partnership with the EFCC that would take us to the next level.

“So we need to quickly build stronger alliances to prevent any form of risks that will blossom into national security issue,” he said.


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E-Financial

N159m Up for Grabs in Fidelity Bank’s GAIM 6 Promo

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Fidelity Bank Plc, leading financial institution has announced that it will be giving out N159 million to lucky customers in its recently launched Get Alerts in Millions Season 6, (GAIM 6) promo.

L – R: Mr. Osita Ede, Divisional Head, Product Development, Fidelity Bank Plc; Mrs. Aboluwade Margaret, Zonal Coordinator, Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Council; Dr. Ken Opara, Promo Committee Chairman and Executive Director, Lagos and South West, Fidelity Bank Plc; Mrs. Oghenero Ugoji, Director, National Lottery Regulatory Commission, Lagos Zonal Office; Mr. Tanko Olaseni Mohammed, Head, Monitoring Inspection & Enforcement, Lagos State Lottery and Gaming Authority; and Ms. Damilola Oshinowo, Legal Officer, Lagos State Lottery and Gaming Authority: at the launch of the Fidelity Bank Get Alert in Millions Season 6 (GAIM 6) promo in Lagos recently.

Speaking at the press conference to kick off the promo at the bank’s Lagos head office, Executive Director, Lagos & South-West, Fidelity Bank Plc and the Promo Committee Chairman, Dr Ken Opara, said that the aim of the promo was to build a culture of financial discipline and enable the bank’s customers improve their standard of living, achieve their goals, and secure a brighter future for themselves and their families.

He said, “Over the years, we’ve seen firsthand how GAIM has transformed lives by helping customers pay off debts, fund their children’s education, start-up businesses, and invest in projects.

“These stories of the transformative power of GAIM in the lives of our customers, motivated us to raise the stakes with each new season, and I am excited to share that GAIM 6 will feature an even larger prize pool with over N159 million in cash prizes.

“As a Bank, we remain committed to ensuring this season is bigger and better than ever. In the coming months, we will provide additional updates through roadshows and community outreaches, and we encourage you to join us in spreading the word and inviting your friends and family to be a part of this initiative.

“While GAIM provides an opportunity to win numerous cash prizes, it is important to state that GAIM is not just about winning prizes. It’s about changing the financial fortunes of our customers, strengthening communities and contributing to the country’s economic growth.

“The financial advisory services we offer to our winners are an essential part of providing key insights that help our winners preserve and grow their earnings in a sustainable manner.”

To participate in the promo, Osita Ede, Divisional Head, Product Development, Fidelity Bank Plc said, “The customer needs to have a savings account with Fidelity Bank, and make sure that from today, that you’re putting money in that account.

“And once your balance is increasing, every N5000 you put in, you qualify for the basic rewards, the ones that happen quarterly, the N10,000.But for the N1 million rewards you need to have at least a minimum of 10,000 naira.

“Every 10,000 Naira in your account gives you a ticket. With that ticket, you stand a chance of winning N1 million naira every month.

“We have 10 winners emerging every month with N1 million naira each. So, for the period of nine months, that’s 90 customers getting N1 million naira each.”

Ranked as one of the best banks in Nigeria, Fidelity Bank is a full-fledged commercial bank with over 8.3 million customers serviced across its 251 business offices in Nigeria and the United Kingdom as well as on digital banking channels.

The bank has won multiple local and international awards including the Export Financing Bank of the Year and Excellence in Digital Transformation & MSME Banking at the 2024 BusinessDay Banks and Other Financial Institutions (BAFI) Awards; the Best Payment Solution Provider Nigeria 2023 and Best SME Bank Nigeria 2022 by the Global Banking and Finance Awards; Best Bank for SMEs in Nigeria by the Euromoney Awards for Excellence 2023; and Best Domestic Private Bank in Nigeria by the Euromoney Global Private Banking Awards 2023.


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Africa Processed 49Bn Transactions in 2023 – SIIPS Report

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The SIIPS Report which offers valuable insights into the opportunities and challenges facing Africa’s digital payment systems has said that 2023 was a landmark year, with 49 billion transactions processed across the continent—the highest volume recorded to date.

Africa Processed 49Bn Transactions in 2023 – SIIPS Report

This staggering number underscores a broader trend: the shift towards digital, fast, and efficient payments is becoming a cornerstone of Africa’s economic growth.

The SIIPS Report 2024, launched in Accra on Thursday, showcases the remarkable growth of Instant Payment Systems (IPS) across Africa, emphasizing their role in advancing financial inclusion.

With 31 operational IPS in 26 countries and another 27 on the way, the report reveals a 37% growth in transaction volume over five years.

While digital payment adoption surges, barriers remain for vulnerable groups, especially women, who face security and fraud concerns.

Despite progress, no system has fully achieved inclusive access, affordability, or transparency.

The report emphasizes the need for collective efforts to expand IPS, particularly in rural areas, to ensure universal financial inclusion by 2030.

Supported by partners like the World Bank and UNECA, the SIIPS Report offers valuable insights into the opportunities and challenges facing Africa’s digital payment systems, calling for innovation and regulatory support to achieve seamless, cross-border payments across the continent.

More importantly, the total value transacted surged at a remarkable average annual growth rate of 39% from 2019 to 2023, reaching over $1 trillion last year.

Such figures highlight Africa’s increasing reliance on digital financial systems and indicate a seismic shift in how money moves.

 

 

 

 


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