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General News

Scary! Get Ready for $10 a Barrel Oil

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This is a very bad time for oil dependent country like Nigeria because a scary analysis in Bloomberg by Gary Shilling has predicted a further tumble in oil price,

According to Shilling, at about $50 a barrel, crude oil prices are down by more than half from their June 2014 peak of $107.

They may fall more, perhaps even as low as $10 to $20.

Here’s why.

U.S. economic growth has averaged 2.3 percent a year since the recovery started in mid-2009.

That’s about half the rate you might expect in a rebound from the deepest recession since the 1930s.

Meanwhile, growth in China is slowing, is minimal in the euro zone and is negative in Japan.

Throw in the large increase in U.S. vehicle gas mileage and other conservation measures and it’s clear why global oil demand is weak and might even decline.

At the same time, output is climbing, thanks in large part to increased U.S. production from hydraulic fracking and horizontal drilling.

U.S. output rose by 15 percent in the 12 months through November from a year earlier, based on the latest data, while imports declined 4 percent.

Something else figures in the mix: The eroding power of the OPEC cartel. Like all cartels, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is designed to ensure stable and above- market crude prices. But those high prices encourage cheating, as cartel members exceed their quotas.

For the cartel to function, its leader — in this case, Saudi Arabia — must accommodate the cheaters by cutting its own output to keep prices from falling. But the Saudis have seen their past cutbacks result in market-share losses.

So the Saudis, backed by other Persian Gulf oil producers with sizable financial resources — Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates — embarked on a game of chicken with the cheaters.

On Nov. 27, OPEC said that it wouldn’t cut output, sending oil prices off a cliff. The Saudis figure they can withstand low prices for longer than their financially weaker competitors, who will have to cut production first as pumping becomes uneconomical.

What is the price at which major producers chicken out and slash output? Whatever that price is, it is much lower than the $125 a barrel Venezuela needs to support its mismanaged economy. The same goes for Ecuador, Algeria, Nigeria, Iraq, Iran and Angola.

Saudi Arabia requires a price of more than $90 to fund its budget. But it has $726 billion in foreign currency reserves and is betting it can survive for two years with prices of less than $40 a barrel.

Furthermore, the price when producers chicken out isn’t necessarily the average cost of production, which for 80 percent of new U.S. shale oil production this year will be $50 to $69 a barrel, according to Daniel Yergin of energy consultant IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates.

Instead, the chicken-out point is the marginal cost of production, or the additional costs after the wells are drilled and the pipes are laid. Another way to think of it: It’s the price at which cash flow for an additional barrel falls to zero.

Last month, Wood Mackenzie, an energy research organization, found that of 2,222 oil fields surveyed worldwide, only 1.6 percent would have negative cash flow at $40 a barrel.

That suggests there won’t be a lot of chickening out at $40. Keep in mind that the marginal cost for efficient U.S. shale-oil producers is about $10 to $20 a barrel in the Permian Basin in Texas and about the same for oil produced in the Persian Gulf.

Also consider the conundrum financially troubled countries such as Russia and Venezuela find themselves in: They desperately need the revenue from oil exports to service foreign debts and fund imports. Yet, the lower the price, the more oil they need to produce and export to earn the same number of dollars, the currency used to price and trade oil.

With new discoveries, stability in parts of the Middle East and increasing drilling efficiency, global oil output will no doubt rise in the next several years, adding to pressure on prices. U.S. crude oil production is forecast to rise by 300,000 barrels a day during the next year from 9.1 million now.

Sure, the drilling rig count is falling, but it’s the inefficient rigs that are being idled, not the horizontal rigs that are the backbone of the fracking industry. Consider also Iraq’s recent deal with the Kurds, meaning that another 550,000 barrels a day will enter the market.

While supply climbs, demand is weakening. OPEC forecasts demand for its oil at a 14-year low of 28.2 million barrels a day in 2017, 600,000 less than its forecast a year ago and down from current output of 30.7 million. It also cut its 2015 demand forecast to a 12-year low of 29.12 million barrels.

Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency reduced its 2015 global demand forecast for the fourth time in 12 months by 230,000 barrels a day to 93.3 million and sees supply exceeding demand this year by 400,000 barrels a day.

Although the 40 percent decline in U.S. gasoline prices since April 2014 has led consumers to buy more gas-guzzling SUVs and pick-up trucks, consumers during the past few years have bought the most efficient blend of cars and trucks ever.

At the same time, slowing growth in China and the shift away from energy-intensive manufactured exports and infrastructure to consumer services is depressing oil demand. China accounted for two-thirds of the growth in demand for oil in the past decade.

So look for more big declines in crude oil and related energy prices.

 


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General News

SEC Advocates for Advanced Financial Inclusion by 2030

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The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has noted the need for Nigeria to harness its demographic dividend to advance financial inclusion through investments by 2030 for national survival or face deepening inequality.

Emomotimi Agama, Director General, SEC, said this at the United Capital Asset Management Investment forum held Wednesday in Lagos.

Agama, in his keynote address titled: “Advancing Financial Inclusion through Investments: Bridging Nigeria’s Knowledge and Wealth Gap,” said Nigeria must harness its demographic dividend to boost investment.

“Our theme, Advancing Financial Inclusion through Investments, is not aspirational; it is foundational to national survival.

“We stand at a pivotal moment. By 2030, Nigeria can either harness its demographic dividend or face deepening inequality. The knowledge-wealth gap is not merely an economic challenge; it is a moral imperative,” Agama said.

He said the term inclusion should be reframed as active financial involvement, where access meets empowerment, and capital becomes a tool for transformation.

Agama said that closing the financial inclusion gender gap could lift 700,000 Nigerians from poverty.

He said, “Nigeria has a great population yet we have a tiny drop of this number of persons involved in the capital market.

That’s one reason for poverty, because we are running from money. We have to do something. Our market capitalisation is an opportunity to do something, we all have.

“We need to change the narrative and move the market forward. We must reach out to make the difference. We are committed to protecting investors and developing the market. Our goal is to do the right thing no matter whose ox is gored. We will work by the principles of fairness and equity to change the market. We will provide a fair ground for everyone to aspire.

He noted that MTN Nigeria’s share offering drew 150,000 new investors – 75 percent women, 85 percent under 40. Agama recommended a four-pillar strategy for bridging the gaps.

He listed the four-pillar strategy as democratisation of financial knowledge, catalyse MSME Investment Channels, blended Finance Vehicles: Partner with Bank of Industry (BOI) to de-risk loans for women-led SMEs.

“We need to educate people about finances. As we drive this market, we do so for a purpose, I enjoin everyone to be the disciple and the apostles. Getting this market to move is a deliberate action,” he added.

 


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OpenAI Unveils New AI Agent for Software Developers

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OpenAI has launched Codex, which it regards as its most capable AI coding agent available to ChatGPT Pro, Enterprise, and Team subscribers.

Users will have ‘generous access at no additional cost’ for a few weeks, after which OpenAI plans to introduce pricing options and rate-limited access.

Codex, a cloud-based software engineering agent, can write features, answer questions about a codebase, fix bugs, and propose pull requests for review. Several tasks can run simultaneously, and users retain full access to their computers while the agent takes anywhere from one to 30 minutes to complete a task.

The research preview of Codex offers powerful code-writing, debugging, and collaboration features, which mark a major step in OpenAI’s push to automate software development.

“We imagine a future where developers drive the work they want to own and delegate the rest to agents—moving faster and being more productive with AI,” OpenAI said.

Since it is still in research preview, the tool remains in early development. “It currently lacks features like image inputs for front-end work, and the ability to course-correct the agent while it’s working,” the firm said in a blog post.

Additionally, delegating to a remote agent takes longer than interactive editing, which can take some getting used to, it stated. Over time, however, the company said using the service will feel more like asynchronous collaboration with colleagues.

The launch comes as part of a broader rise of AI tools for software engineers that are meant to handle repetitive, boring tasks rather than take over the whole gamut.

OpenAI is reportedly in talks to acquire Windsurf, a maker of AI coding tools, for around $3 billion, which is potentially its largest acquisition to date.

 

 


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Africa Gears Up For Digital Sovereignty At 13th Edition Of Digital Africa Conference 2025

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Africa’s digital destiny will on October 28-29, 2025, take centre stage at the 13th Edition of the Digital Africa Conference & Exhibition (DACE), to be held at Merit House, Abuja, under the theme: “Sovereign Intelligence: Africa’s Voice in the Global Digital Order.”

At a time when artificial intelligence (AI), smart systems, and data technologies are reshaping societies, economies, and governance structures worldwide, DACE 2025 is sounding a clarion call: ‘Africa must lead, not lag in this transformation.’

Organizers say the aim is to move beyond consumption and dependency, and instead position the continent as a proactive contributor to global digital norms and governance.

“This year’s conference is about shifting from passive adoption to active leadership,” said Dr. Evans Woherem, Chairman, Digital Africa Consult, organisers of the event. “Sovereign Intelligence is more than a concept, it’s a movement to ensure that Africa controls its digital resources, designs its own ethical frameworks, and asserts its voice in shaping global technology norms.”

A Defining Moment for Africa’s Digital Future

Woherem said the conference will serve as a high-level, cross-sectoral platform aimed at positioning Africa as a co-author of global AI governance standards, rather than a mere recipient, assuring that the conversations are expected to align closely with the African Union’s Continental AI Strategy, advocating for a united, self-determined digital ecosystem across the continent.

“The urgency of this moment cannot be overstated. As the world builds its digital infrastructure, much of the technology consumed in Africa is still imported, foreign-owned, and culturally disconnected. African data is often stored offshore, local languages and cultural contexts remain invisible in AI systems, and African experts are frequently excluded from global decision-making tables.

“This must change. Digital Africa 2025 is about taking control of our data, our narratives, and our technological development. Africa must move from being users of foreign systems to creators of our own,” Woherem added.

Key Objectives of DACE 2025

One of the primary objectives of this year’s event is to advocate for African ownership of digital infrastructure, data policies, and technology standards. Organizers hope to inspire African leaders and institutions to say yes to innovation and regulation built by Africans, for Africans.

Another major focus will be amplifying African voices on the global stage. This involves not only advocating for inclusion in international policy dialogues but also ensuring that African values, cultures, and wisdom shape the design and deployment of AI systems worldwide.

“The conference will also spotlight homegrown innovation. Startups and developers from across the continent will showcase digital solutions addressing local challenges in healthcare, agriculture, finance, and education. These practical examples will reinforce the message that Africa is already generating intelligent, scalable answers to complex problems,” said Nneoma Ofodile, General Manager, Digital Africa.

Empowering young Africans through digital skills, research opportunities, and leadership training is another key goal of the gathering. Organizers are committed to fostering a new generation of African tech leaders who can confidently shape global digital trends from a place of knowledge and ownership.

Regional cooperation will be front and centre, as DACE encourages cross-border collaboration on harmonizing laws, sharing infrastructure, and building integrated digital ecosystems. Sessions will explore how African nations can jointly develop policies and platforms that reflect the continent’s unique needs and aspirations.

While global partnerships will also be on the agenda, the conference aims to deepen Africa’s engagement with international institutions such as UNESCO, the UN, and the OECD, not as passive participants but as co-authors of global standards for ethical and inclusive AI.

Nneoma said that throughout the two-day event, attendees can expect high-level discussions on digital law, tech sovereignty, and innovation policy, alongside practical workshops for developers, educators, and youth. Innovation showcases will highlight the work of African tech hubs, while strategy sessions will promote cross-country digital alignment.

At the close of the event, a concrete roadmap is expected to emerge—outlining actionable steps toward achieving digital sovereignty across the continent. The conference will also aim to strengthen networks among African innovators, regulators, and thinkers, while increasing the visibility of African insights in international technology policy.

Above all, Digital Africa 2025 is about reclaiming agency. “This isn’t just a technology conversation,” Nneoma emphasized. “It’s about power, voice, and independence. Africa must not only catch up; Africa must lead.”

As preparations intensify, DACE 2025 is inviting visionary organizations, sponsors, and partners to join the mission of building a digitally sovereign and inclusive Africa.


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