General News
Scary! Get Ready for $10 a Barrel Oil
This is a very bad time for oil dependent country like Nigeria because a scary analysis in Bloomberg by Gary Shilling has predicted a further tumble in oil price,
According to Shilling, at about $50 a barrel, crude oil prices are down by more than half from their June 2014 peak of $107.
They may fall more, perhaps even as low as $10 to $20.
Here’s why.
U.S. economic growth has averaged 2.3 percent a year since the recovery started in mid-2009.
That’s about half the rate you might expect in a rebound from the deepest recession since the 1930s.
Meanwhile, growth in China is slowing, is minimal in the euro zone and is negative in Japan.
Throw in the large increase in U.S. vehicle gas mileage and other conservation measures and it’s clear why global oil demand is weak and might even decline.
At the same time, output is climbing, thanks in large part to increased U.S. production from hydraulic fracking and horizontal drilling.
U.S. output rose by 15 percent in the 12 months through November from a year earlier, based on the latest data, while imports declined 4 percent.
Something else figures in the mix: The eroding power of the OPEC cartel. Like all cartels, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is designed to ensure stable and above- market crude prices. But those high prices encourage cheating, as cartel members exceed their quotas.
For the cartel to function, its leader — in this case, Saudi Arabia — must accommodate the cheaters by cutting its own output to keep prices from falling. But the Saudis have seen their past cutbacks result in market-share losses.
So the Saudis, backed by other Persian Gulf oil producers with sizable financial resources — Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates — embarked on a game of chicken with the cheaters.
On Nov. 27, OPEC said that it wouldn’t cut output, sending oil prices off a cliff. The Saudis figure they can withstand low prices for longer than their financially weaker competitors, who will have to cut production first as pumping becomes uneconomical.
What is the price at which major producers chicken out and slash output? Whatever that price is, it is much lower than the $125 a barrel Venezuela needs to support its mismanaged economy. The same goes for Ecuador, Algeria, Nigeria, Iraq, Iran and Angola.
Saudi Arabia requires a price of more than $90 to fund its budget. But it has $726 billion in foreign currency reserves and is betting it can survive for two years with prices of less than $40 a barrel.
Furthermore, the price when producers chicken out isn’t necessarily the average cost of production, which for 80 percent of new U.S. shale oil production this year will be $50 to $69 a barrel, according to Daniel Yergin of energy consultant IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates.
Instead, the chicken-out point is the marginal cost of production, or the additional costs after the wells are drilled and the pipes are laid. Another way to think of it: It’s the price at which cash flow for an additional barrel falls to zero.
Last month, Wood Mackenzie, an energy research organization, found that of 2,222 oil fields surveyed worldwide, only 1.6 percent would have negative cash flow at $40 a barrel.
That suggests there won’t be a lot of chickening out at $40. Keep in mind that the marginal cost for efficient U.S. shale-oil producers is about $10 to $20 a barrel in the Permian Basin in Texas and about the same for oil produced in the Persian Gulf.
Also consider the conundrum financially troubled countries such as Russia and Venezuela find themselves in: They desperately need the revenue from oil exports to service foreign debts and fund imports. Yet, the lower the price, the more oil they need to produce and export to earn the same number of dollars, the currency used to price and trade oil.
With new discoveries, stability in parts of the Middle East and increasing drilling efficiency, global oil output will no doubt rise in the next several years, adding to pressure on prices. U.S. crude oil production is forecast to rise by 300,000 barrels a day during the next year from 9.1 million now.
Sure, the drilling rig count is falling, but it’s the inefficient rigs that are being idled, not the horizontal rigs that are the backbone of the fracking industry. Consider also Iraq’s recent deal with the Kurds, meaning that another 550,000 barrels a day will enter the market.
While supply climbs, demand is weakening. OPEC forecasts demand for its oil at a 14-year low of 28.2 million barrels a day in 2017, 600,000 less than its forecast a year ago and down from current output of 30.7 million. It also cut its 2015 demand forecast to a 12-year low of 29.12 million barrels.
Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency reduced its 2015 global demand forecast for the fourth time in 12 months by 230,000 barrels a day to 93.3 million and sees supply exceeding demand this year by 400,000 barrels a day.
Although the 40 percent decline in U.S. gasoline prices since April 2014 has led consumers to buy more gas-guzzling SUVs and pick-up trucks, consumers during the past few years have bought the most efficient blend of cars and trucks ever.
At the same time, slowing growth in China and the shift away from energy-intensive manufactured exports and infrastructure to consumer services is depressing oil demand. China accounted for two-thirds of the growth in demand for oil in the past decade.
So look for more big declines in crude oil and related energy prices.
Office of the Surveyor General of the Federation (OSGOF) and the National Space Research and Development Agency (NASRDA) have pledged to deepen collaboration in key national development areas, including geospatial data infrastructure, satellite technology, communication sector regulation, and population census operations.
This was the outcome of a high-level meeting held on Tuesday at the headquarters of OSGOF in Abuja, where Abudulganiyu Adeyemi Adebomehin, surveyor General of the Federation, received Dr. Matthew Adepoju, director general of NASRDA, and his management team.
This was disclosed in a statement issued on Wednesday by Henry David, head, Information and Public Relations, Office of the Surveyor General of the Federation, titled ‘SGOF Pledges To Support NASRDA For Optimal Performance.’
According to the statement, the discussions at the meeting focused on the impact of upstream and downstream operations in Nigeria’s communication sector, challenges of mast proliferation near residential areas, and the broader implications for public health. Both agencies expressed concern over the unregulated installation of communication infrastructure and its potential link to rising cancer rates.
“The downstream sector of communication companies involves placing signal-receiving stations within living communities, which poses significant health risks due to radiation,” the two agencies said in a joint position. “Co-location of infrastructure, as practised in developed countries like the UK and US, should be adopted here to reduce radiation exposure.”
The two agencies called for stronger regulation of telecommunication operators, noting that television and radio signal disruptions—commonplace in Nigeria—are largely due to a lack of oversight, a situation that does not persist in countries with stringent telecom regulations.
Addressing issues of national data management, the agencies stressed the critical need for collaboration with the National Population Commission (NPC) in the upcoming national census. “Without the input of NASRDA and OSGOF, the census will remain speculative,” they jointly noted.
On geospatial data, both parties resolved to work together to strengthen the National Geospatial Data Infrastructure, which they described as vital for national planning and development.
In his remarks, Surveyor General Adebomehin expressed firm support for NASRDA’s initiatives. “I will defend NASRDA to the best of my ability. If you need software engineers, we have capable hands here,” he said. “Keep encouraging your staff. Behind every successful organisation in the world, you will find Nigerians. We are in full support of your mission.”
Adebomehin urged NASRDA to engage the Presidency directly in acquiring high-precision satellite systems. “You need a satellite that can deliver accuracy of less than 10 centimetres,” he said. “This will reduce the government’s losses from MDAs sourcing satellite services externally.”
Duniya Magaji Joseph, director of Geodesy at OSGOF, called for improved inter-agency collaboration, especially with the military. “Anytime the military collaborates with OSGOF, the outcome is always better,” he said. “We need to overcome the tendency to work in silos driven by funding concerns and instead focus on joint advantages.”
NASRDA’s DG, Dr. Matthew Adepoju, said his agency is working with the Ministry of Steel Development on mineral exploration projects, including the identification of new sites for raw materials such as steel and limestone. He stressed the importance of OSGOF’s technical input in these initiatives.
“We’ve agreed to support the Ministry of Steel Development in identifying new resource locations,” Adepoju said. “But I don’t want NASRDA to go it alone. We want OSGOF fully involved so that roles are clearly defined, and the synergy is more impactful.”
To mark the visit, NASRDA presented symbolic gifts, including a plaque and a vest, to the Surveyor General in appreciation of OSGOF’s commitment to partnership.
The meeting, held in Abuja, concluded with both agencies reaffirming their shared mandate to support national development through technology, data integration, and inter-agency cooperation.
The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has warned investors that Crypto Bridge Exchange (CBEX), operating under the corporate identity of ST Technologies International Ltd, also known as Smart Treasure/Super Technology, remains banned in Nigeria, insisting that it has not been registered by the commission.
SEC’s position followed reports that traders on the controversial CBEX platform are now back and able to access their accounts and trade, with renewed assurance after the digital platform abruptly shut down in April, thereby trapping investors’ funds in excess of N1 trillion.
In a public notice issued on Wednesday, SEC advised the public to refrain from patronising or transacting any investment-related business with CBEX.
However, the commission was silent on what steps it would take against the trading platform and its promoters, having earlier declared that CBEX was not registered or authorised by it to embark on offer investment-related services to the Nigerian public.
The notice read: “The attention of the Securities and Exchange Commission has been drawn to media reports indicating that CBEX (Crypto Bridge Exchange), operating under the corporate identity of ST Technologies International Ltd, also known as Smart Treasure/Super Technology, has resumed operations across Nigeria.
“According to the reports, CBEX promoters are demanding $200 from their subscribers with balances above $1,000, and $100 from those with less than $1,000 balances before withdrawals can be processed.”
The commission stated unequivocally that neither CBEX nor ST Technologies International Ltd (or Smart Treasure/Super Technology) is registered with it or authorized to offer investment-related services to the Nigerian public.
“As a matter of fact, enforcement action has already been initiated against CBEX and its promoters following its previous unauthorized investment activities and the commission is collaborating with relevant law enforcement agencies to properly investigate CBEX/ST Technologies International Ltd and will take appropriate actions in line with the provisions of the Investments and Securities Act 2025.
“The Nigerian public is accordingly advised to refrain from patronising or transacting with CBEX /ST Technologies International Ltd (Smart Treasure or Super Technology) as they risk losing their funds,” it said.
It, therefore, advised the public to verify the registration status of investment platforms via the commission’s dedicated portal before transacting, adding that it remains committed to protecting investors and maintaining market integrity.
Union Bank of Nigeria has reiterated its commitment to entrepreneurship and women’s empowerment through its alpher initiative by sponsoring the Nigerian British Chamber of Commerce (NBCC) Women and Youth Entrepreneurship Development Centre (WYEDC) Cohort 2 Programme, which has graduated 125 entrepreneurs who have benefited from firsthand entrepreneurship training and business grants.
Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Nigeria account for more than 50% of industrial employment and contribute approximately 48% to the country’s GDP.
This makes entrepreneurship one of the economy’s building blocks and is a testament to Union Bank’s unwavering dedication to national development in partnership with NBCC.
In her welcome speech, the Director General of NBCC, Dr. Ebere Njoku, reiterated NBCC’s commitment to supporting entrepreneurship, women’s empowerment, and youth empowerment, citing these as catalysts for economic development and sustainability.
She appreciated the sponsors, partners and facilitators who devoted their resources and time to upskilling the participants.
The entrepreneurship initiative stemmed from the visionary goal of Mr. Ray Atelly, President and Chairman of the Council, NBCC, FRPA, to provide entrepreneurship and grant opportunities to Nigerian women and youths.
Mr. Atelly told the graduates in his speech, “This is your chance, make sure you take it. Don’t let any obstacle stop you because there will be many; if you let it stop you, your dreams are not strong enough. You need to keep pushing, someday you will sit at the top of a conglomerate and people will aspire to be like you.”
Also in attendance was the NBCC’s Patron, Senator Akin Odunsi, FRPA, who congratulated the Cohort 2 graduates.
He said, “I encourage all of you not to take the training you have received for granted. Use it as a landmark opportunity to be a beacon of hope to others who look up to you.”
He also urged the Chamber to provide internship opportunities after the six-month entrepreneurship training in organisations for the incoming Cohort 3 and beyond.
He added that the internship experience will give trainees the unique chance to practice what they learned and, in return, benefit the organisations from their acquired skills.
The goodwill message at the graduation ceremony was delivered on behalf of Mrs. Yetunde Oni, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of Union Bank of Nigeria, by Mrs. Vivian Imoh-Ita, the Bank’s Head of Retail and SME Business, who appreciated NBCC for the life-transforming training they are providing to the youth and women entrepreneurs.
She further stated, “As a Bank, we understand that when we invest in women and youth entrepreneurs, we are investing in the most powerful catalysts of economic transformation. Through the Bank’s alpher initiative, we have enabled success for women-led businesses. In a volatile economy like Nigeria, the challenges facing entrepreneurs are dynamic and significant. As a Bank, we intend to prove that these barriers are not unconquerable and are growth opportunities.”
Three entrepreneurs, namely Evelyn Ekene Ani of Evani.Ng (First place), Martha Padonu of Beyond Photography (Second place), and Therietta Vershima of La Teriz (Third place) were declared winners of the Union Bank Business Pitch competition held during the graduation ceremony and were rewarded with funding for their businesses.
The Bank’s sponsorship of the training demonstrates its commitment to fostering a vibrant, innovative, and inclusive entrepreneurial ecosystem for women and all individuals.
ngCERT Issues High Alert to Nigerians Using Android Phones
OSGOF, NASRDA Partner to Boost Geospatial Data, Others
World Bank Maintains Nigeria’s Growth at 3.6% Amid Trade Tension
SEC Insists CBEX Ponzi Remains Banned in Nigeria
African Startups Raised $345m in Funding in May
Telecom2 days agoTelcos Hit by Major Outages across Lagos, Enugu, Others
E-Business2 days agoHuman Hacking: When Cyber Criminals Target You
News2 days agoBeware!, Fraudsters Using our Name to Defraud Investors- NNPCL
E-Financial2 days agoAGF Drops Charges Against Fidelity Bank MD, Cites Lack of Direct Involvement
E-Financial2 days agoFIRS Launches Revised SOP to Streamline Tax Payment
News2 days agoFG Plans AgriConnect Initiative Pilot
E-Financial2 days agoConfidence in Nigerian Economy Grows as Forex Inflows Reach $5.96Bn
News2 days agoAAAN Congratulates Steve Babaeko, X3M Ideas on Financial Times Recognition