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Stocks, Currencies Gain as Investor Optimism Grows over US-China Trade Deal
By Han Tan, Market Analyst at FXTM,
Most Asian stocks and currencies are gaining as investors grow increasingly hopeful that the US and China can reach a trade deal on Friday. There’s a clear risk-on mood in the markets at the expense of safe haven assets, as Gold trades below $1500, yields on 10-year US Treasuries breach 1.65 percent, and USDJPY breaks above the psychological 108 level for the first time since October 1.
Investors are ready to celebrate any form of a US-China trade deal, even an interim one, having endured trade-related volatility since May. The amount of market fanfare will correspond with the contents of the actual deal, assuming one will be announced later today. Investors are in sore need of a solid pick-me-up beyond mere whispers of a trade pact, and a formal agreement is likely to sustain risk sentiment for the rest of 2019. Still, investors are cognizant that a trade pact that marks a pause in tariff hikes without rolling back any of the tariffs imposed since last year would not solve all of the global economy’s existing problems.
At the other end of market expectations, failure to come to any agreement this week may have dire consequences for the global economy. Keep in mind that the US administration had threatened to raise existing tariffs on $250 billion worth of Chinese goods by 5 percentage points to 30 percent on Tuesday, with potentially more tariffs to follow in December.
Whiffs of Brexit deal send Pound on steepest climb in seven months
Risk sentiment is also being boosted by reports of another crucial deal becoming likelier across the Atlantic.
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Irish premier Leo Varadkar said they have identified a “pathway” towards a Brexit deal. Following the news, GBPUSD breached the 1.245 mark for the first time since September 25 after seeing its biggest one-day jump in seven months, before moderating slightly to converge around its 100-day moving average.
With three weeks remaining before the existing October 31 deadline, markets can expect more twists and turns in the Brexit saga, as has been the case since 2016. This uncertainty also means that the Pound will be highly volatile as the UK endeavours to find its way out of the European Union. The 1.20 level remains the floor supporting Sterling, unless a no-deal Brexit becomes an absolute certainty.
US-China trade deal to act as Brent boost
Brent futures could carve out a path back towards $64/bbl in the event that a US-China trade deal is announced going into the weekend. Despite Brent futures now breaking above the psychological $60/bbl level following news of an Iranian tanker catching fire, investors’ focus remains primarily on the outcome of the trade negotiations in Washington.
Oil markets have been weighed down by demand-side uncertainties, as heightened tariffs have choked global trade. Even in the event of a trade truce, the tariffs that remain in place however will limit Oil’s upside, barring any tightening in global supplies. This could come via a spike in geopolitical tensions involving major Oil producers or a tighter supply-cuts programme by OPEC+.
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NCAA Enforces Penalties on Five Airlines for Passenger Rights Violations
Nigeria Civil Aviation Authority (NCAA) has taken enforcement action against five airlines—two international and three domestic operators—for violations of Part 19 of NCAA Regulations 2023.
These breaches include failing to refund passengers within the stipulated timeframe, disregarding directives from the authority, mishandling luggage, issues with short-landed baggage, and problems related to flight delays and cancellations.
Michael Achimugu, NCAA’s director of public affairs and consumer protection, confirmed the development on Tuesday but declined to disclose the names of the sanctioned airlines.
Achimugu explained that while airlines are not always at fault for flight disruptions, NCAA regulations mandate specific actions they must undertake during such instances. Failure to comply with these directives results in penalties of varying severity.
Achimugu highlighted an uptick in passenger complaints about delays and cancellations, particularly during the festive season, with some disruptions attributed to harmattan-induced poor visibility.
“We all know that this is harmattan season, so there is poor visibility. Flights must get cancelled. This is force majeure, and the airlines do not owe passengers anything in those instances.
“The enforcement we are initiating today is on cases where the airline is deemed to have been at fault. More will come,” he said.
The NCAA plans to summon the chief executive officers (CEOs) of all airlines this week for a meeting to address flight disruptions and regulatory breaches.
Earlier, on December 10, the NCAA announced its intent to sanction airlines for delayed ticket refunds. Under Part 19 of the NCAA Regulations 2023, airlines are required to strictly adhere to refund timelines to protect passenger rights. Refunds for cash purchases must be made immediately and in cash, while electronic payments, including mobile apps and internet banking, must be refunded within 14 days.
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Firm Partners Access Bank to Train Youths in Digital Skills
NerdzFactory Foundation in collaboration with the Access Bank, has trained over 518 youths in digital skills. The two weeks virtual training, Youth Transition Program (YTP) 5.0, was meant to equip the youths for employment and digital skills and prepare them to excel in the competitive job market and unlock new economic opportunities.
Director of NerdzFactory Foundation, Ade Olowojoba, said the significance of the programme reflects the foundation’s mission to empower a new generation of leaders with the skills needed to thrive in an increasingly dynamic and digital global economy.
“Through initiatives like this, we are fostering innovation, resilience, and economic independence among young Nigerians,” he stated.
He disclosed that the programme succeeded in reaching its objectives. According to him, participants reported increased readiness for the workforce, improved digital skills, and enhanced entrepreneurial capabilities, which have positioned them to secure quality employment and launch their ventures. The programme has demonstrated the transformative impact of focused skill-building initiatives.
“NerdzFactory Foundation and Access Bank reaffirm their commitment to expand the reach of the Youth Transition Programme to empower more young Nigerians with the tools they need to achieve lasting success and contribute to Nigeria’s sustainable economic development,” he said.
The director noted that the programme launched in response to Nigeria’s high unemployment rate, delivered comprehensive training to empower participants with practical job search skills, digital marketing expertise, and knowledge of leveraging digital platforms for economic growth.
During the programme, some of the sessions included webinars and a virtual bootcamp designed to help participants develop workplace skills such as CV writing, LinkedIn optimisation, and effective use of digital workspace tools.
“By fostering economic independence and resilience, YTP 5.0 aligns with the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals, particularly Goal 4, on quality education and Goal 8, on decent work and economic growth,” he stated.
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Afreximbank and Ecobank Join Forces to Boost Trade and Compliance Across Africa
African Export-Import Bank and Ecobank Group have embarked on a collaboration aimed at simplifying trade and compliance for businesses in Africa by integrating Ecobank’s Single Market Trade Hub and Afreximbank’s MANSA Digital Repository Platform.
With the collaboration, African businesses will benefit from seamless shared services across the two platforms, with users of the Single Market Trade Hub able to easily leverage MANSA’s comprehensive database for efficient know-thy-customer (KYC) and customer due diligence (CDD) checks while MANSA platform users would, in turn, be able to directly connect to the Single Market Trade Hub to explore trade opportunities to expand their businesses across Africa.
The Ecobank Single Market Trade Hub connects registered businesses across Africa on a single platform, helping them benefit from opportunities in the unified market of 1.4 billion people created by the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA).
It serves as a one-stop repository for the AfCFTA by providing small and medium-scale enterprises (SMEs) and corporates with insights about the agreement while its online match-making feature enables importers and exporters to upload their profiles and showcase goods and services they offer, or wish to source, with the aim of finding partners within Africa.
Once a match is found, connections are made via the platform and the transaction can be concluded leveraging on Ecobank’s trade and payment solutions in 35 African markets.
The MANSA Digital Repository Platform, or MANSA, is a one-stop-shop for due diligence matters on all African entities. As a centralised digital repository, MANSA seeks to eliminate information asymmetry and to increase intra-African trade and trade with the rest of the world.
It drives and promotes good governance culture among African SMEs and creates visibility for their businesses while also supporting African entities to expand, diversify and add value to their export products at both the local and international levels. Entities onboarded unto MANSA are allotted an Africa Entity Identifier (AEI) code which enables them to leverage other Afreximbank products and initiatives.
MANSA is also a key digital solution at the Africa Trade Gateway (ATG) marketplace which houses a suite of digital platforms designed as a single window to enable Afreximbank better deliver on its mandate, providing critical services to support and promote intra-African trade and the implementation of the AfCFTA. The platform enables African entities to accelerate their business activities at the ATG marketplace by working with verified information on trusted counterparties.
The new collaboration is, therefore, enabling Ecobank and Afreximbank to provide a central solution to the key challenge of KYC compliance and access to business across 35 countries in Africa. The improved interoperability is expected to further streamline cross-border trade and compliance in Africa, fostering greater financial and economic integration on the continent.
Afreximbank is a pan-African multilateral financial institution established to finance and promote intra- and extra-African trade.
Ecobank Group is a leading private pan-African banking group with unrivalled African expertise.
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