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Will Nigeria’s economy gather momentum during the second half of 2019?

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By Lukman Otunuga, FXTM Research Analyst,

The news that Nigeria’s economy cooled down to 2.05 percent in the first quarter of 2019 compared to 2.38 percent in Q4’18 has left investors wondering about the chances of growth gathering momentum during the second half of the year. On the one hand, it’s an encouraging sign we’ve seen the fastest first-quarter growth since 2015, driven mainly by the non-oil sector which grew 2.47 percent. On the other hand, the Oil sector shrank by 2.4 percent, sending a worrying signal that the sector isn’t doing as well as it should be even amid rising Oil prices.

It is becoming increasingly clear that economic growth is unlikely to reach the ambitious Economic Recover and Growth Plan (ERGP) target of seven percent but it may hit the Central Bank of Nigeria’s target of 2.47 percent. For this to happen, the growth trend in the Oil sector would need to rebound and the services sector would need to sustain its current strength. Added momentum could stem from Oil prices should they hit a bullish streak going forward, supporting the economy as the Oil trade still accounts for a handsome chunk of the nation’s foreign exchange earnings.

There are other potential areas of growth. Regionally there is a significant development which could increase economic efficiencies and trade within Africa – the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) which comes into effect on May 30. Although Nigeria hasn’t yet joined AfCFTA, there’s still a chance it will do so, once discussions are completed with stakeholders. In addition to opening intra-Africa trade relations, the AfCFTA gives multi-national companies the chance to set up in one African country and be passported to another 52 countries within a common market made up of over one billion people. Increased access to foreign expertise and investment could improve local manufacturing and processing systems while driving more growth and jobs creation. In the best-case scenario, standardised trading agreements across AfCFTA may open up trading channels which could lead to increased company sales, revenues and profits. Nigeria sells just 12.7 percent of its total exports to other African countries, so if the treaty is ratified there’s scope for increased government and company revenues from a boost in trade.

In general, there needs to be a stronger push in diversifying away from Oil reliance to other sources of sustainable growth. An important part of sustainable growth is investment sentiment and the current economic stability along with easing inflationary pressures which may lead to a more dovish Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) monetary policy by way of interest rate cuts. If so, a reduction in interest rates would stimulate borrowing and investment from local businesses, which in turn would support economic growth. A more robust economy plus foreign exchange reserves rising towards $45 billion would likely provide ammunition for the CBN to defend the Naira.

Another factor impacting on Nigeria’s recovery is the external threat of the US-China trade negotiations which could end up pressuring Oil prices if the result is a global slowdown, meaning less demand for Oil. The USD is staying strong amid the trade tensions and should they intensify further, they will hit emerging markets where it hurts – in their currency exchanges. This would undermine the Naira while pressuring consumer spending and on top of that, falling Oil prices would likely dent government revenues.

Looking ahead, there is scope for Nigeria’s economy to gather momentum in the second half of the year, provided some key basics of growth are kept in focus: supportive monetary policy; keeping consumer spending healthy; sustaining investor confidence; and improving economic infrastructure, particularly in the Oil sector. Even if the risks stemming from US-China trade disputes are out of Nigeria’s hands, shoring up the domestic economy could help it weather any storms. The worst-case alternative is less attractive. If a global slowdown is triggered due to the trade tensions, economic growth in Nigeria may follow suit, meaning the CBN will face more difficult challenges to support the Naira and wider economy through monetary policy.


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Ugo Onwuaso is an ICT enthusiast. He believes technology should be used for general good. He holds a Master of Public Administration (MPA) degree from the Lagos state University. Dear Reader, Your support matters. But we believe that technology makes life more exciting and helps improve the lives of people around Nigeria and indeed the world. That is why, we have devoted our energy to independent reportage of technology and finance and how they affect lives. Our incisive and analytical view of how technology news affects the daily life help individuals and organizations make up their minds. Quality journalism costs money. Today, we're asking that you support us to do more. Kindly support our effort to deliver technology and finance journalism to everyone in the world. Donate as little as N1,000. Bank transfers can be made to: UBA Plc 1017156876 Communication Week Media Ltd

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Kuwait Busts Nigerian Cybercrime Ring Targeting Telecom Tower, Banks

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Kuwait’s Criminal Security Sector has dismantled an international cybercrime ring composed of Nigerians responsible for coordinated attacks on telecommunications towers and banks, the Ministry of Interior announced on Sunday.

Kuwait Busts Nigerian Cybercrime Ring Targeting Telecom Tower, Banks

According to Arabic-language daily Al Qabas, the case was initiated after the Communication and Information Technology Regulatory Authority reported cyber intrusions targeting local telecom networks.

Specialised security teams quickly launched an investigation, discovering that the suspects used advanced electronic devices to breach networks and distribute mass phishing messages impersonating banks, aiming to steal account information and siphon funds.

Signal-tracking technology led investigators to a vehicle in the Salmiya area.

When authorities attempted to stop the vehicle, the driver tried to flee, colliding with several cars before being apprehended following a fierce struggle.

A search of the vehicle uncovered sophisticated electronic equipment and various technical tools.

Upon investigation, the suspect confessed to collaborating with an accomplice to hack telecom networks and send fraudulent messages posing as banks and telecommunications companies.

Police subsequently located and arrested the second suspect, and a search of their residence uncovered additional devices used to analyse the stolen data.

Both suspects, along with the seized equipment, have been handed over to the relevant authorities for prosecution.

The Ministry of Interior reaffirmed its commitment to protecting the nation’s cybersecurity and intensifying efforts to combat electronic fraud targeting both citizens and residents.


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Nigerian Scientists Await Return of Egusi Seeds Sent to Space

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Space in Africa, the Lagos-based firm Oniosun founded, is expecting its Egusi melon seeds to splash down in the Pacific Ocean Saturday—fresh from a trip to the International Space Station.

Nigerian Scientists Await Return of Egusi Seeds Sent to Space

Once Earthside, experiments will begin on what is being hailed as the first food native to West Africa to be sent to space.

As Oniosun told AFP on Friday, it could herald an era where space exploration reflects the planet’s diversity.

“When we talk about humans colonizing other planets, this is not just an American mission or a European mission—this is a global mission,” he told AFP.

And future African space explorers might enjoy a taste of home.

Experiments on extraterrestrial food, which is to say tested in space, have been going on for years.

Growing food in space is seen as a crucial part of long-distance space flight and long-term missions, where frequent resupply won’t be feasible.

Scientists at the University of Florida in the United States, and the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture, in the southwestern Nigerian city of Ibadan, will examine the seeds “to see the effects of exposure to space” and zero gravity, including on the seeds’ DNA.

Once planted, researchers will monitor their post-space performance and germination.

The seeds went up to the ISS on a SpaceX flight last week, as part of NASA’s partnership with private firms.

Oniosun said the inclusion of Egusi seeds marked an important step forward, both for those on Earth as well as future astronauts.

High in protein, they are typically used to prepare soups and stews across West and Central Africa.

Africa’s most populous country has a small space industry, but the launch of the seeds seemed to generate more excitement on social media and in newspapers than previous launches of Nigerian satellites, he said.

“The moment that we’re sending food that they love, a food that holds significant cultural contexts to Nigeria… everybody starts getting interested in the subject,” Oniosun told AFP.

“The launch of Egusi melon seeds into space is more than a symbolic gesture,” he added.

“The future of humanity among the stars must reflect the diversity and richness of life on Earth.”

Whether pounded yam—the key dish served alongside Egusi soup—will make its way to the final frontier remains to be seen.

 

 


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NITDA Deepens Digital Gender Inclusion with IgniteHer Bootcamp

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In a powerful demonstration of its commitment to the Renewed Hope Agenda of the present administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu GCFR, the National Information Technology Development Agency (NITDA) has launched the second cohort of the IgniteHer Bootcamp for Women Entrepreneurs, a strategic initiative aimed at accelerating gender inclusion and economic empowerment through digital innovation.

The bootcamp, themed “Empowering Women Entrepreneurs for Growth and Innovation”, was launched in partnership with the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) and brought together selected women entrepreneurs from across Nigeria, both physically and virtually, for rigorous training in digital skills, innovation management, business development, and investor readiness.

The NITDA Director General, Kashifu Inuwa CCIE, who declared the bootcamp open, reaffirmed the Agency’s role in aligning Nigeria’s digital development with the national priorities of reforming the economy for sustained inclusive growth and accelerating economic diversification through industrialisation and digitisation.

“Through IgniteHer, we are actualising President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda by expanding women’s access to technology and economic opportunity,” he stated.

The DG, who was represented by the agency’s Acting Director of the Digital Literacy and Capacity Building department, Dr. Ahmed Tambuwal, noted that inclusive innovation is a cornerstone of NITDA’s Strategic Roadmap and Action Plan (SRAP 2.0: 2024–2027), which supports national aspirations for inclusive growth, poverty eradication, and youth empowerment.

“We are not merely imparting skills; we are creating self-reliant entrepreneurs, change-makers, and leaders,” he added.

Inuwa disclosed that the IgniteHer Bootcamp is also a key component of the National Gender Digital Inclusion Strategy (NGDIS), through which NITDA is working to empower 12.7 million Nigerian women with digital literacy skills by 2027. He averred that the programme complements broader government efforts to bridge gender gaps, enhance productivity, and reduce unemployment, especially among young women.

Citing a report by the World Wide Web Foundation, the DG emphasised that closing the digital gender gap in Nigeria could unlock an estimated $13 billion in GDP growth over the next decade.

“This training is a step towards harnessing this economic potential and ensuring that women play an integral role in shaping the digital landscape of Nigeria,” he noted.

He therefore called on participants selected from over 12,000 applicants to seize the moment and shape the future of Nigerian entrepreneurship.

While highlighting NITDA’s leadership in strategic partnerships, the DG commended JICA and the Government of Japan for their ongoing collaboration in supporting digital empowerment through programmes like IgniteHer and the iHatch Incubation Programme, which provides startup support, mentorship, and innovation development to early-stage entrepreneurs.

“At NITDA, we believe that inclusive innovation is not just an ideal but a critical strategy that ensures the growth of a stronger economy, the development of smarter solutions, and the existence of more resilient communities. Through IgniteHer, we are dismantling barriers and replacing them with pathways to opportunity,” he concluded.

In his remarks, the Japanese Ambassador to Nigeria, Matsunaga Kazuyoshi, reaffirmed Japan’s long-standing commitment to innovation and gender inclusion in Nigeria. He announced that Japan, through JICA, is currently supporting two grant projects worth $30.9 million, focused on improving Nigeria’s startup ecosystem, strengthening the investment climate, and building an inclusive innovation hub.

The Ambassador also referenced the upcoming Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD 9), themed “Co-create Innovative Solutions with Africa”, as further testament to Japan’s dedication to deepening Africa-Japan cooperation on digital transformation and entrepreneurship.

Lead Facilitator of IgniteHer, Hajiya Hafsat Salabi-Dange, described the programme as a catalyst for social and economic transformation. While praising NITDA’s visionary approach to development, she stated that the programme is a movement that is bridging the digital gender divide and fostering economic independence.

Encouraging the participants to remain curious, intentional, and bold, she said, “What you will gain here goes beyond business; it is a tool for community upliftment, national growth, and generational impact.”


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