General News
Will the Central Bank of Nigeria join the monetary easing bandwagon?
By Lukman Otunuga, FXTM Research Analyst
Unfavorable macroeconomic conditions across the globe have forced major central banks to embark on a monetary easing cycle to protect their respective economies.
The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates for the first time in over 10 years later this month, while central banks in Asia and Africa including the South African Central Bank have already made a move. With economic conditions in Nigeria slowly stabilizing and inflationary pressures slowly moderating towards single digits, the CBN has the opportunity to join the monetary easing bandwagon.
Lower interest rates in Nigeria will stimulate consumption, encourage businesses to increase investment spending and give banks more incentive to borrow to corporations and households. Given how household consumption is roughly 80% of GDP, a rate cut will be supportive of growth potential as the nation diversifies away from Oil reliance.
Dollar humbled by IMF and Fed doves
It has been another rough and rocky trading week for the Dollar thanks to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and dovish commentary by Fed officials.
Earlier in the week, the IMF said the US Dollar was overvalued by 6%-12% – ultimately forcing investors to re-evaluate the Dollar’s current valuation.
On Thursday, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President, John Williams, said that central banks must “take swift action when faced with adverse economic conditions”. Also, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman, Richard Clarida, said yesterday that policymakers “don’t need to wait until things get so bad” before cutting interest rates.
Such commentary from Fed officials is reinforcing expectations of a US interest rate cut at the end of this month. The Dollar Index (DXY) remains under pressure on the daily charts with prices trading marginally below 97.00 as of writing. Repeated weakness below 97.00 could open a path lower towards 96.60.
Commodity spotlight – WTI Oil
WTI Crude tumbled roughly six percent this week as US inventories jumped by over nine million barrels last week, which sparked fears over global demand for crude lagging behind rising output.
The slowdown in global growth has overshadowed market sentiment for Oil, as rising geopolitical tensions have failed to live up to their potential of sending prices higher. Any further deterioration in the global demand outlook could mean nothing but more pain for oil markets.
On the bright side, markets can take some comfort in the OPEC+ decision to extend its supply cuts through March 2020, which should help support Oil prices over the coming months.
Nigeria’s Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) market is on a fast-growing trajectory and is predicted to be valued $2.61 billion by 2030, up 83% from $1.42 billion in 2024, owing primarily to the rapid emergence of fintechs in the country.
This observation was stated in EnterpriseNGR’s State of Enterprise 2025 report, which focuses on how fintechs are reshaping Nigeria’s business landscape through digital innovations, accessible credit systems, and mobile-first financial tools.
As a credit system, BNPL allows users to stagger payments for products and services, making it a key development driver in Nigeria’s developing digital economy.
From 2021 to 2024, the BNPL experienced a compounded annual growth rate of 23.1%. Fintechs have contributed to the rapid growth by providing a range of flexible loan alternatives for e-commerce, retail, and services, bridging financial gaps for millions of disadvantaged Nigerians.
The report highlights how fintechs have contributed to Nigeria’s flexibility and resiliency by simplifying digital payments, automating invoicing and payroll systems, and democratising credit through platforms such as Renmoney and FairMoney.
The report also shows a significant rise in remittance inflows into Nigeria following the Central Bank of Nigeria’s 2024 policy adjustments.
According to the report, by 2024, Nigeria boasted over 400 licensed digital lenders who extend collateral-free credit to those commonly excluded by banks.
The Nigeria Immigration Service (NIS) strengthened bilateral relations with the Netherlands’ government through an agreement targeted at improving migration governance and border security.
This partnership was confirmed during a meeting at the NIS headquarters in Abuja, which was attended by a Dutch team led by Jurgen Bartelink, Chargé D’Affaires of the Embassy of the Netherlands in Nigeria.
The meeting focused on increasing bilateral migration cooperation and came after the comptroller general of Immigration, Kemi Nandap, paid a working visit to the Netherlands.
Under the agreement, the Dutch government pledged to continue supporting technology-driven solutions targeted at boosting Nigeria’s border control systems and improving migration management.
During the Netherlands Embassy diplomats handed over essential operational tools, such as Edison Software licence keys and the Passport Examination Programme Manual App.
According to NIS spokeswoman ACI Akinsola Akinlabi, “The partnership focuses on enhancing bilateral collaboration on migration management and reviewing ongoing capacity-building efforts.”
Bartelink, Chargé d’Affaires of the Netherlands Embassy in Nigeria, underlined the Netherlands’ commitment to helping Nigeria’s continuing border security and migration reforms.
Also speaking, Rob Bokhoven, head of international affairs, repatriation, and deportation services at the Dutch Ministry of Justice and Security, emphasised the country’s strong bilateral relations and announced plans to share a mobile border software solution with the NIS.
Receiving the equipment, Nandap said the delivery of the gadgets would boost West African country’s border security, significantly improve the service’s document verification border management capabilities and support the implementation of Nigeria’s National Migration Policy.
“The engagement will further reinforce the strategic partnership between Nigeria and the Netherlands advancing shared goals in migration governance, border security and international cooperation,” she added.
Peter Enogb, principal country economist, African Development Bank (AfDB), says the rise in global uncertainty, emanating from increases in global trade tariffs, has slowed Nigeria’s projected growth to 3.2% in 2025.
“Without this level of heightened uncertainty, our projections would probably have been somewhat higher. We’ve reduced our projections for Nigeria. We initially were projecting 3.5% – 3.6% growth in 2025.
“But given the current situation, our models are showing that we’re taking a more cautious approach. So that’s why we produced this and, of course, the main driver is uncertainty in the global economy,” Enogb said.
He said this at the launch of the 2025 Nigeria Country Focus Report (CFR) on Thursday.
AFDB projected that real GDP growth would hit 3.1% in 2026. Following the 2024 consumer price index (CPI) rebasing, with lower weights for food items, the inflation rate is expected to reduce over the medium term to 24.7% in 2025 and 17.3% in 2026.
As imports start to rise over the medium term, the current account is projected to decline to 3.9% of GDP in 2026.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that Nigeria’s headline inflation slowed for the second consecutive month to 22.97% in May. This is down from 24.48% at the start of the year
This is contrary to the World Bank projection that Nigeria’s economy would record steady growth of 3.6% despite the shift in the global trade dynamics.
Joseph Ogebe, head of research and development at Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG), also said that global uncertainty had been very high in recent times, resulting from the Trump 2.0 effect.
“And also with the recent war between Israel and the international community, we’ve seen what’s happening to oil prices. Even with the call-off of the war, we’ve seen the effect on oil prices too, which has implications on the fiscal side. So it has implications for the general economy,” he said.
The head of research at NESG said that rather than focusing on just growth, what should be looked at is a strategy called growth with depth.
“Growth with depth means that your growth must be diversified, export-led, productive, and technologically driven,” he said.
Ogebe said that if the Government works towards adopting a strategy of growth with depth, there is a tendency for the government to move towards its goal of achieving a $1 trillion economy by 2030.
The report revealed that the country’s recent policy moves, including fuel subsidy removal, exchange rate unification, and tax reforms, reflect a commitment to long-term transformation.
However, it also pointed out that at about 13%, Nigeria’s tax-to-GDP ratio is among the lowest in West Africa, noting that fiscal reforms are urgent.
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