General News
Will Trump Shock the World Again?
By Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM,
Nearly four years ago, Donald Trump shocked the world by winning the US presidential election, pulling off one of the biggest political upsets in American history.
With polling stations opening in a few hours’ time, the lingering question is whether history will repeat itself with Trump catching markets off-guard once again and securing a decisive electoral college win. National polls favour Democrat candidate Joe Biden to defeat the incumbent, a development that is mysteriously similar to 2016. Whatever the outcome of this momentous day, it will certainly have a profound impact on financial markets.
US futures and Asian stocks have marched into Tuesday with a spring in their step as encouraging factory activity data and expectations of a ‘blue wave’ victory for Democrat candidate Joe Biden have boosted risk sentiment. A clear Biden win, where his party retains control of the House and wins the Senate, seems like the most positive outcome for markets. Such a result will open the doors to a round of large-scale fiscal stimulus that could nurse some of the damage COVID-19 has inflicted on the US economy. Should Biden win with Republicans retaining the Senate, this may reduce the odds of a larger fiscal stimulus and could be less positive for global risk sentiment.
A Trump victory will certainly catch markets by surprise and prove the polls wrong again. Although this outcome may result in a smaller or even delayed fiscal package, the policy continuity from his re-election could send stock prices higher over the medium term.
In the event of a contested result, risk aversion is likely to sweep across global markets which would trigger a stock market selloff, while boosting appetite for the safe-haven Dollar, Yen and Gold.
Dollar outlook hangs on election outcome
King Dollar’s performance over the next few days will be heavily influenced by the election outcome. As results start flowing in later this morning, the Dollar is poised to remain highly sensitive and volatile as investors attempt to figure out who the next President of the United States will be. A ‘blue wave’ outcome may be negative for the Greenback due to an even bigger stimulus package by Democrats lifting inflationary pressures. On the other hand, a contested result might inject bulls with fresh inspiration to push the DXY beyond the 94.00 resistance level, given the Dollar’s safe-haven status.
Talking technicals, a solid daily close above the 94.00 level could open a path towards 94.65 and beyond. Alternatively, a clear Biden sweep should see the Dollar weaken and trigger a decline back towards 92.70.
Commodity spotlight – Gold
Over the past few weeks, Gold has been waiting for a fresh directional catalyst to break out of its current range. This could come in the form of the US election today.
A Democrat sweep is likely to provide Gold a handsome tailwind in the form of a weaker Dollar. Although the metal may also derive some strength from a Trump win, the upside is likely to be limited by other forces in the short to medium term. As new coronavirus cases surge in Europe and the United States, investors are rushing towards the world most liquid currency. If the Dollar ends up appreciating on a contested election outcome, this could limit Gold’s upside despite the risk aversion.
Looking at the technical picture, Gold is hovering around $1890 as of writing. The key levels of interest remain $1935 and $1965 to the upside and $1858 support if prices go lower.
Nigeria has plans to launch a $40 million fund to support early-stage tech startups, aiming to strengthen the country’s entrepreneurial ecosystem and reduce young companies’ reliance on private investors.
The fund will be equally financed by the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) and the Nigeria Sovereign Investment Authority (NSIA), which manages the national sovereign wealth fund.
Kashifu Inuwa Abdullahi, director general, National Information Technology Development Agency (NITDA), confirmed the final agreement would be signed within the next month.
The initiative is part of Nigeria’s Startup Act, adopted in October 2022, which aims to create a favorable environment for startups through tax incentives and financial support.
The act established a 10 billion naira (approximately $8.6 million) annual fund to finance certified startups through seed funding, grants, or loans.
According to Disrupt Africa, Nigeria’s startup ecosystem attracted over $2 billion in investments between January 2015 and August 2022, positioning the country as Africa’s leader.
Companies like Flutterwave, Andela, and Opay achieved multi-billion-dollar valuations.
, fundraising dropped to $224 million in 2023, down from $531 million in 2022 and over $1 billion in 2021.
This decline highlights the need for government intervention to revitalize the tech ecosystem amid investor caution.
The new fund marks a significant step for Nigeria, which aims to foster local innovation.
Currently, 12,948 companies are registered as startups, benefiting from a three-year tax exemption. Low awareness of the law’s benefits has prompted the government to plan a nationwide information campaign.
By facilitating access to funding, the initiative could strengthen support for existing startups and stimulate new tech ventures, reinforcing Nigeria’s position as a leading hub for digital innovation in Africa.
Eight countries – six of them in Africa, including Nigeria, Kenya and Lesotho – could soon run out of HIV drugs following the US government’s recent decision to pause foreign aid, the World Health Organization (WHO) has said.
US President Donald Trump announced the freeze on his first day in office in January as part of a review into government spending.
“Disruptions to HIV programmes could undo 20 years of progress,” Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO chief warned.
It could also lead to more than 10 million additional cases of HIV and three million HIV-related deaths, he added, noting this was “more than triple the number of deaths last year”.
Nigeria, Kenya, Lesotho, South Sudan, Burkina Faso and Mali – as well as Haiti and Ukraine – would run out of live-saving anti-retroviral (ARV) medicines in the coming months, Dr Tedros said at a press conference on Monday.
Trump’s executive order paused foreign aid support for an initial duration of 90 days in line with his “America First” foreign policy.
It has affected health programmes around the world, leaving shipments of critical medical supplies, including HIV drugs, greatly hampered.
The majority of the US Agency for International Development’s (USAID) programmes have since been terminated.
Despite a waiver issued in February for the US’s ground-breaking HIV programme, its work has severely impacted.
Known as the US President’s Emergency Plan for Aids Relief (Pepfar), it relies on logistical support from USAID and other organisations hit by the turmoil.
It has led to the “immediate stop to services for HIV treatment, testing and prevention in more than 50 countries”, Dr Tedros said.
Launched in 2003, Pepfar has enabled some of the world’s poorest people to access anti and has been credited with saving more than 26 million lives worldwide.
During his first days in office, Trump also announced that the US would pull out of the WHO, affecting funding for the global health agency.
“The US administration has been extremely generous over many years. And of course, it’s within its rights to decide what it supports and to what extent,” Dr Tedros said.
“But the US also has a responsibility to ensure that if it withdraws direct funding for countries, it’s done in an orderly and humane way that allows them to find alternative sources of funding.
An estimated 25 million people are living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa, which is more than two-thirds of the global total 38 million people living with the disease.
In Nigeria, nearly two million people are living with HIV, with many relying on receiving aid-funded medicines.
Kenya has the seventh-largest number of people living with HIV in the world, at around 1.4 million, according to WHO data.
“We ask the US to reconsider its support for global health, which not only saves lives around the world, it also makes the US safer by preventing outbreaks from spreading internationally,” Dr Tedros said.
National Identity Management Commission (NIMC) has announced that as of February 28, 2025, the number of Nigerians enrolled in the National Identification Number (NIN) database has reached 117.3 million.
This marks a significant increase of over seven million registrations since September 2024, when the figure stood at 110 million.
Gender and State Distribution
The latest statistics reveal that 56.5% of registered individuals are male, totaling 66.2 million, while 43.5% are female, at 51.07 million.
Among states, Lagos leads with 12.6 million registrations, followed by Kano with 10.2 million and Kaduna with 6.9 million.
This is consistent with the high populations in Lagos and Kano.
Other states with notable enrolment numbers include:
Ogun (4.9 million),
Oyo (4.5 million),
Katsina (4 million).
In contrast,
Bayelsa (758,111),
Ebonyi (990,775),
have the lowest enrolment figures.
The government has been emphasising the need for citizens to link their NIN to access essential services, including social services, financial transactions, and telecommunications.
A well-developed and accessible digital ID system is seen as vital for effective digital governance.
Beyond strengthening security and promoting transparency, this initiative aims to enhance the efficiency of service delivery across the country.
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